Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 202338
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
638 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

...Update to Public and Aviation...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 626 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

The UPS fog forecasting technique indicates an increasing
potential for dense fog later tonight. Forecast lows are a solid
6-8 degrees below cross-over temperatures from late this
afternoon...generally south of the Highway 54 corridor. Even
knocking off a degree or two for another few hours of weak dry air
advection, dense fog still appears increasingly likely. We have
updated the forecast and Hazardous Weather Outlook products to
lower expected visibilities to less than a half mile. If current
trends hold, a Dense Fog Advisory may be required late tonight and
early Tuesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Clouds are slowly clearing from north to south across southern
Missouri this afternoon. The actual front was still located from
southeast Kansas northeastward into central Missouri and slowly
progressing southward. There is not much of a temperature
difference on the other side of the front. Temperatures are
expected to reach the lower to middle 70s later this afternoon.

A weak surface high will be right over the center of the Missouri
Ozarks by late tonight. Some of the guidance is hinting at fog
potential for late tonight and early tomorrow morning. Will not
go as widespread as some of the models indicate but because of
light winds and temperatures meeting up with the dewpoints...will
mention patchy fog down to below one mile at times. If confidence
increases this evening...it might be a little bit lower
visibilities and more coverage area. This is something to monitor.

Upper level surface ridging will build in for Tuesday and
Wednesday which will bring mild temperatures and fair skies.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

The models have finally come into better agreement with the
Thursday weather system. This upper level wave will traverse
eastward across the northern and Upper Midwest region on Thursday.
Moisture will be limited due to the Gulf of Mexico being shut down
for moisture transport. There will be a light QPF event with
scattered light showers for the entire area on Thursday with the
best potential for the western half of the CWA.

Models have good agreement for next weekend with a strong upper
level ridge developing over the southwest U.S. and moving eastward
across the central and southern U.S. next weekend. This will bring
a much warmer and dry weather pattern for the Missouri Ozarks.
Temperatures maybe 10 to 15 degrees above average. Highs in the
80s will be possible.

Next potential chance of rain will be possible with a front and a
trough early next week but the models diverge on exact solutions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Confidence is increasing in dense fog and LIFR potential late
tonight and early Tuesday morning. The UPS fog forecasting
technique indicates that dense fog is likely at all three southern
MO TAF sites. We have therefore continued the downward trend in
flight categories including a TEMPO group to LIFR. Fog will then
burn off during the mid-morning hours on Tuesday with VFR then
expected for the remainder of the day.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann




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