Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 301821
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
121 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...

The National Weather Service in Springfield is closely monitoring
the eastern Ozarks for organized convective development over the
next few hours.

One minute rapid scan visible satellite shows a dry line slowly
approaching Springfield down to Roaring River State Park at 1820Z.
This feature is moving two to three hours slower than hi-res
models were suggesting this morning.

Meanwhile, a 17Z special RAOB was performed, measuring 1,044 j/kg
of cape from a mixed layer parcel, within a modestly sheared
airmass. The 0-6km bulk shear values were ranging from 25 to 40
knots, which should persist through the afternoon and evening.

Satellite also showed gradual clearing east of the dry line across
Taney, Ozarks, Douglas, Wright, and Texas counties. As
temperatures continue to warm into the middle and possibly upper
70s this afternoon, sufficient instability will evolve for
development of severe thunderstorms capable of producing large
hail and damaging wind gusts. Large hail should be more common
than damaging winds.

The south southwest surface wind component will mitigate the
potential for tornadoes, but not completely. With low level cape
present within the eastern Ozarks airmass, we have continued a
limited mention of tornadoes. Again, this risk for tornadoes is
low at this time, but not zero.

Stay tuned to future watches or warning due to severe thunderstorm
development across southern Missouri.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Widespread rainfall across the area gave a good soaking to most
locations overnight. Early this morning the back edge of the
precipitation was generally along highway 65 and should continue to
make steady progress eastward early this morning. Short term models
indicate a lull in the precipitation for much of the morning before
more convection forms later today.

This afternoon the primary upper low will slowly migrate eastward
through southern Nebraska, while a weak surface low lifts northeast,
pushing a cold front into the Missouri Ozarks, roughly to near
Highway 65 around 18Z. Models continue to show ample 0-6km bulk
shear and sufficient instability in the warm sector for strong to
severe thunderstorms. There still remains some uncertainty
regarding the severe threat. The first being a punch of drier air
in the mid levels that begins to push into the region which may
limit updraft potential. The second is the affect that morning
clouds and possible remaining precipitation will have on
instabilities. None the less, severe threat will last through
about mid evening across the eastern Ozarks before activity pushes
eastward with quiet weather expected for the overnight hours.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

The weakening upper low moves away from the area Sunday as upper
flow then transitions to a northwesterly flow for Monday through
Friday. A shortwave trough does drop southward across the region
Monday which will bring a slight chance for showers to southeast
Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks and somewhat cooler temperatures as
highs will only be in the lower to middle 60s.

A slow warming trend, along with quiet and dry weather is then
expected for Tuesday through Friday as a ridge of high pressure
builds across the western Conus and begins to nudge eastward with
time. Temperatures will warm back into the middle 70s by the end of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

MVFR ceilings will persist for a few more hours at SGF and JLN
before the frontal boundary moves through and things begin to mix out.
Kept vicinity thunder at BBG this afternoon as storms should fire
close to there but will likely be just to the east of the site.
VFR conditions will prevail from this evening through Sunday.


&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Cramer
SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Burchfield



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