Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 160832

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
332 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Monday tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Mild conditions are occurring across the Missouri Ozarks and
southeastern Kansas early this morning as a warmer air mass
continues to spread into the area. Temperatures are currently in
the middle 60s to the lower 70s early this morning, which are
close to normal highs for this time of year across the area.

850mb temperatures will warm into the upper teens C this
afternoon and then into the lower 20s C on Monday. As a result
more summer-like conditions will occur across the region today
and Monday as highs in the middle to upper 80s will occur each
afternoon, with some locations likely able to hit the 90 degree
mark on Monday. These warm conditions will result in a few record
highs being in jeopardy today and Monday. Please see the climate
section below for more details on records for the area. Lows
tonight into Monday morning will again be quite mild and closer to
normal highs for mid October as lows in the middle 60s to lower
70s once again occur.

Gusty south to southwesterly winds will occur today and Monday
with gusts around 30 mph expected at times especially west of
Highway 65. No rain will occur across the area today and Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

A cold front will start to sag south into the area on Tuesday.
This front will not cause a sharp drop in temperatures as it mores
into the area on Tuesday but bring slightly cooler conditions on
Tuesday as highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s occur.

The front will not have much upper level support during the day on
Tuesday and will limit the overall rain chances on Tuesday.
Clouds will increase and cannot rule out some sprinkles at times
but overall dry conditions will occur through Tuesday afternoon.
The front will likely stall across the area as it sags south into
the area due to the lack of upper level support to push it on
south through the area.

An upper level trough will begin to spread into the Plains Tuesday
night and Wednesday then across the area Wednesday night and
Thursday. As the trough starts to approach from the west the front
that will be stalled across the region will likely start to spread
back to the north Tuesday evening and night. Scattered showers
and storms are expected to develop along the front Tuesday
evening and night.

As the upper level trough begins to push into the area Wednesday
into Wednesday night the front will sharpen up and sweep through
the region. Better chances for more widespread in nature showers
and storms will occur along the front and trough as they spread
east. The only questions on rain chances will be the exact
locations of the front will the trough sweeps it through the area.
Locations across southern MO and the eastern Ozarks will likely be
south of the front and see the better rain chances.  The upper
level trough and front will be fairly progressive in nature and
spread east of the area by Thursday. Some lingering light showers
may occur on Thursday, but any rain will be pretty light.

A much cooler air mass will spread into the region behind the
front and trough Thursday and Friday. Highs on Thursday will be in
the upper 50s to lower 60s with highs in the mid to upper 50s
expected Friday. Southerly winds will start to return next weekend
with highs in the 60s expected on Saturday and highs in the 70s on


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR ceilings are expected especially
early in the taf period. Low pressure out over the western Plains
will keep gusty south winds in place, especially during daylight


Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

A much warmer air mass will spread over the area to end the
weekend to start early next week. Below are the record highs and
years for Today (October 16th) and Monday October 17th.

October 16th:

City            Record High     Year

Springfield     85              1950
Joplin          88              1995
Vichy/Rolla     87              1950
West Plains     88              1950

October 17th:

City            Record High     Year

Springfield     89              1964
Joplin          88              1964
Vichy/Rolla     89              1950
West Plains     88              1953




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