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000
FXUS63 KSGF 230013
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
713 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 652 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

The temperatures across the Heat Advisory area and much of the
remainder of the Ozarks remained in the 90s at 7 pm this evening.
Combine this with dew points in the 70s to around 80 degrees and
extending the Advisory through 9pm was the best course of action.

A weak cold front was making its way south across eastern Kansas
and northern Missouri. There remains the potential for some
showers and storms to develop, but 14C temps at 850MB on the 00z
sounding put that in a bit of doubt. That and the airmass behind
the front isn`t significantly different than that ahead of it.

Will continue to monitor for storm development, as there is plenty
of CAPE to work with.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

The main fcst concern is convective chances tonight and Wednesday.

A shortwave will move southeast through the Midwest, skirting
northeast of the region, but weakening the eastern extension of an
upper level ridge that is in place right now. 12Z raobs from Topeka
and Springfield, MO while very unstable, were a bit capped as
well. Will need to watch to see if convergence and sfc heating can
break the cap as far west as northern mo and ne ks toward 5-7 pm.

A wide variety of mesoscale and global model guidance exists. Some
guidance develops storms late this afternoon along a sfc front
from northeast KS east into MO. Corfidi vectors would take this area
of storms south, maybe even a bit west of south this evening. The
12z wrf-nmm is very aggressive with scenario. Given the
strong instability and progged high sfc-600mb theta-e
differentials (close to 30 deg C), if the storms do develop there
will be a severe storm wind risk. Will continue to highlight the
northern cwfa as having the best overall chance for severe storms.
As far as pops, will probably have the highest chances over the
northeastern cwfa where weaker capping exists.

Wednesday/Wednesday night: Tough call based on what happens with
convection late today and tonight. In general will have a synoptic
sfc front dropping south into the area and will keep chances for
showers/storm going Wednesday. Cooler air will filter in from the
north and northeast Wednesday night.

Heat advisory: Based on the current fcst, do not see a need to
extend the ongoing heat advisory for our western counties past
today.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

We should see a bit of a cool down for Thursday behind the front,
particularly over the eastern cwfa as high pressure moves into
Missouri and the Midwest. The eastern extension of the western
U.S. ridge reasserts itself with warmer temperatures again Fri and
Sat. Another shortwave is expected to open up and move southeast
into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes by Sunday pushing another
cold front into the area with chances for thunderstorms. Cool and
dry weather is then expected Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 652 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

The flight forecast looks to be fairly good for the Ozarks region.
The only glitch would be if storms can develop on a weak cold
front moving south towards the region. A strong cap over the area
will likely limit the chance for storms, but have included
VCTS/VCSH as models continue to show some development with the
front. Otherwise VFR flight conditions are expected through the
forecast period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055-066-067-077-
     078.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hatch
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Hatch