Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 180453

1153 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Mid and high level moisture has been on the increase throughout
the day as a series of shortwaves move northeastward out of the
central Plains and clip the northwest portion of the area. Heading
into this evening, the main trough will shift eastward into the
Midwest and the narrow band of light showers that has stayed just
northwest of the area today will begin to move. Unfortunately, the
combination of weakening lift and meager moisture will result in
this band of rain shrinking with time. At this point will only
mention slight to low end chance for showers. This activity may
end up just being sprinkles by the mid to late evening hours.

Overnight, any lingering light showers/sprinkles will exit or
dissipate and skies will gradually clear from northwest to
southeast. Clearing isn`t completely expected until Friday, so low
temperatures will be coldest (mid/upper 30s) in the northwest
third or so of the outlook area. Friday looks to be a great day
with highs in the 70s area wide.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Some better news for the upcoming weekend as the system once
forecast to enter the area on Sunday continues to get pushed back
in timing. The shortwave is still there, it`s just weaker and
slower. As a result, the weekend will be quite nice. Temperatures
will be above average, well in the 70s both Saturday and Sunday.
There remains uncertainty with just how soon rain chances will
build into the area Sunday afternoon. With the main wave not
expected to enter the region until Monday, rain chances for Sunday
afternoon have been confined to the western half (or so) of the
area. Confidence in rain on Sunday, though, is shaky at this
time. The bottom line is that there will be a risk for showers
and a few storms from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon,
with the best chances coming later Sunday night through Monday.

After a brief return to normal temperatures on Monday (with
associated rain/clouds), a stretch of above average temperatures
will begin Tuesday and last through much of next week as high
pressure aloft builds into the region. Highs may even try and push
the 80s degree mark by Wednesday and possibly even Thursday.
Models have a strong storm system hanging off to our west toward
the end of next week that will eventually bring us a chance for
showers and storms. Have introduced chance PoPs for Thursday,
though it`s possible this system is delayed in timing a bit more.
Something to keep an eye on in subsequent model runs and forecasts.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: An upper level disturbance/shortwave
over se KS/eastern OK will move through the taf sites over the next few
hours. Extensive mid level clouds will clear with it from west to
east. Weak sfc high pressure will remain in place just west-north
the region with light winds and a clearing sky. Some fog is
already developing over se KS where the sky has cleared, and expect
that trend to continue. Will have some mvfr cat fog at all taf
sites and a tempo group of brief ifr cat fog toward 12z/sunrise at
KJLN where the sky will clear out earlier.




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