Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 201734

1234 PM CDT Wed May 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

A shortwave and an associated inverted sfc trough that extends
from central KS into eastern OK will continue to move ene through
our area later this morning and early this afternoon. The deepest
convection with this feature has been to our sw over OK into west
central AR with only occasional lightning with the precip over
eastern KS. Will maintain showers isolated tstm wording in the
elevated warm advection ahead of the sfc trough.

As the precip exits, cool (almost "raw") blustery conditions are
expected with low stratus and some drizzle late in the day into
the nighttime hours. Looks like the low clouds will hold on for
much of the area with the potential for some stratus build down
fog overnight in some areas, especially in higher Ozarks terrain.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Thu will be unseasonably cool but quiet with sfc high pressure
centered over the area by late afternoon/evening. Wouldn`t be
shocked to see low clouds still hanging on in some areas early in
the day.

A longwave trough over the western CONUS will slowly shift east
into the Rockies over the upcoming weekend with smaller scale
waves/impulses moving through and then east of the larger scale
trough. With an overall downstream upper level ridge building
over the region and an associated sfc high off to our east,
initial higher (but still limited) chances for precip will be
more confined to our western cwfa versus the east late Fri and

As the longwave trough opens up and shifts east, mid level height
falls/better synoptic scale lift and deeper moisture will move
into our area with better chances for shower/tstms late Sat night,
Sunday, and Mon. This is time frame to watch for gradually
mounting rainfall totals and possible flooding, particularly over
the western cwfa.

The aforementioned shortwave moves through the area by late
Mon/Tue with lower rain chances.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS: Weak surface low currently moving
through southern Missouri. Main rain area has moved east of the taf
sites, although a light band of rain now affecting KSGF and KBBG
which should move east shortly after 18Z. Ample low level moisture
resides behind the system back into southeast Kansas with IFR
ceilings. However, visibilities have come up and expect this trend
will also occur at KSGF and KBBG for a time this afternoon. IFR
ceilings expected through early Thursday morning with visibilities
once again dropping into the MVFR upper IFR category later this

High pressure begins to build into the region Thursday and expect
improving conditions from mid morning on.




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