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000
FXUS63 KSGF 151620
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1120 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND PROFILER NETWORK CLEARLY DEPICTED AN UPPER
LOW TRACKING SLOWLY FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TOWARD WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AT MIDDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS EXTENDED NORTHEAST
FROM THE UPPER LOW INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS
DEEPER MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED INTO THE OZARKS. THE COMBINATION
OF A DESTABILIZING AIR MASS AND THE SHEAR AXIS ALOFT WILL TRIGGER
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY MAY INITIALLY DEVELOP ON THE
EDGE OF THE APPROACHING CLOUD SHIELD. A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO WEAK SHEAR PROFILES.

OTHERWISE A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AFTERNOON IS IN STORE.
FORECAST GRIDS AND SERVICES HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE TX PANHANDLE REGION WILL CONSOLIDATE
INTO A UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL OK BY EARLY EVENING.
GUIDANCE HAS TWO AREAS OF CONCERN FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSTMS LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FIRST IS IN THE UPPER LEVEL WEAKLY DIFFLUENT
REGION EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER LOW...AND ANOTHER WILL BE
ALONG A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MO (NEAR OR JUST NORTH THE LOWER MO RIVER VLY) LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

SFC-600MB THETA-E DIFFERENTIAL FROM PROGGED SOUNDINGS OVER THE
NORTHERN CWFA ON THE ORDER OF 30 DEG K WOULD SUPPORT A TSTM WIND
THREAT FROM STRONGER STORMS IF THEY CAN INITIATE LATE TODAY AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. THROUGH THE PEAK HEATING CYCLE GUIDANCE FROM
BOTH HIGH RES AND GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT TOO BULLISH ON WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION...FOCUSING AT LEAST SOME ALONG THE SFC FRONT TO OUR
NORTH...AND SOME OVER THE SW CWFA CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. WILL
KEEP GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS LATE TODAY...WITH
SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
NEARS THE REGION AND A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET PROVIDES ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE OZARKS REGION THU WITH
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION. CAN`T RULE OUT AT
LEAST ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION HERE AND THERE FRI BUT
WITH RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND A LACK OF A FOCUSING
MECHANISM...LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION WILL BE SPARSE. AN ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER/CAP WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION LATE FRI NIGHT AND
SAT. MODEL SOUNDINGS LOOK A LITTLE STOUT ON THE DEW POINTS
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND MAY BE SHOWING A BIT TOO MUCH
WEAKENING OF THE CAP. THE GEM LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE DEPICTION
FOR PRECIP...AND WILL ONLY CARRY VERY LOW POPS FOR THIS TIME
FRAME.

A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES SATURDAY. WITH MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS/COOLING...CONVECTION
BREAKING OUT ALONG THE DRY LINE/SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
SAT AFTERNOON...BUT WILL NOT LIKELY MAKE IT TO THE WESTERN CWFA
BORDER SAT NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL
OCCUR LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE SWINGS
NORTHEAST THROUGH KS AND CONVECTION AGAIN DEVELOPS ALONG SFC
TROUGHING OVER EASTERN KS. THIS CONVECTION WILL INITIATE FARTHER
EAST AND HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF MAKING IT INTO THE CWFA SUNDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. STRONGER SW-LY MID LEVEL WINDS/VERTICAL
SHEAR WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW AND MODERATE INSTABILITY
WILL SUPPORT A SEVERE STORM THREAT OVER THE WESTERN CWFA LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING.

FOR MON-TUE...ALREADY MUDDY SMALL SCALE FEATURES WILL GET MESSIER WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING CONVECTION...BUT COULD EASILY SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE MON/MON NIGHT INTO TUE AS THE
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A DECENT HEAVY RAIN SET UP GIVEN THE SW
FLOW ALOFT PARALLEL TO THE SLOW MOVING SFC BOUNDARY ALONG WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

PILOTS CAN EXPECT INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A DEVELOPING CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.

A CLOUD SHIELD WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW TRACKS INTO OKLAHOMA. VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL
INITIALLY BUT AREAS MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP HEADING INTO THE
THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM
MID AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL AGAIN INCREASE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THESE SHOWERS WILL BRING
LOCALIZED MVFR VISIBILITIES.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FOSTER
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...FOSTER