Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 232013

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
313 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

An upper level disturbance is currently moving across the region
this afternoon. Some scattered showers and a few 0isolated
thunderstorms are moving across northeastern Oklahoma and the
Missouri Ozarks. The convection that moved across the area this
morning into this afternoon as limited instability some across
the area, especially the eastern Ozarks. Therefore, the
thunderstorm activity will mainly occur across southeastern Kansas
into western Missouri Ozarks.

Instability has recovered more across Kansas and into  far
western Missouri and could lead to the potential for a few strong
to severe storms mainly west of I-49 later this afternoon into
this evening. Over all the severe risk will be better to the west
of the area where the better instability will be located. Damaging
wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail to the size of quarters will be
the main risk this evening.

An upper level ridge of high pressure will build over the region
on Wednesday allowing a hot and humid air mass to set up over the
area. Highs will warm into the upper 80s to the lower 90s with
heat index values in the middle 90s to around 100. The front and
storm track will move north of the area. A hit and miss pulse type
storms are not out of the questions Wednesday afternoon/early
evening but most locations will likely remain dry.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

The front will setup north of the area Wednesday/Wednesday night
and will start to sag back to south towards the area by Thursday
evening. Storms are expected to develop along the front and occur
generally north of I-44 Thursday evening and night. South of the
front a warm and humid air mass will remain in place with highs
again warming into the upper 80s to the lower 90s. Instability
will increase with the heating of the day and will lead to a risk
for a few strong to severe storms occurring Thursday evening and

The upper level high will be to the southeast of the area and will
likely keep the front from moving south through the area on Friday
and will likely send it back to the north. An upper level short
wave trough will move through the area on Friday sparking off
additional showers and storms across the area.

The upper level high will remain to the southeast of the area
through the weekend into early next week. As a result several
upper level disturbances be able to track through the region
sparking off scattered storms at times. This will not be a
complete wash out, but scattered storms will be possible at times
this weekend into early next week. The best chance for widespread
rainfall appears to be Thursday night into Friday.

With the front now not expected to make it through the region
temperatures are expected to be a little warm this weekend with
highs in the middle 80s to near 90 each day.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Still expect some scattered showers at
the TAF sites through the afternoon hours along with MVFR ceilings
at times. Better chances for storms will be at the KJLN TAF site
this afternoon, but still some uncertainty with coverage. These
ceilings are expected to rise into the VFR category later this
afternoon into the early evening hours. Outside of the showers
this afternoon and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm, it should be
dry for much of the overnight hours as low level jet focuses the
main preciptiation area to the north of the aerodromes. Although
cannot rule out some scattered convection further south and will
include a prob30 group in at KJLN and KSGF for late tonight. Low
level jet will also result in LLWS late tonight into Wednesday


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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