Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 252259
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
559 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

...00z Aviation Forecast Update..

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

The respite from the rain will be short lived as showers and
storms return tonight. Yet another shortwave trough tracking
northeast from the Texas Panhandle region will track into the
Ozarks later tonight. While isolated convection will be possible
through the late afternoon hours expect a swath of convection to
spread northeast from Oklahoma this evening in advance of the
shortwave.

The airmass will remain unstable into the early evening as the
storms approach while deep layer shear increases. This will pose
a limited risk for severe weather mainly across far southwestern
Missouri. However we will have to monitor the organization of this
activity and possible expansion of the severe weather risk.

Another round of moderate to locally heavy rainfall can be
expected. I opted not to issue a Flash Flood Watch given the
progressive nature of this system and areas most impacted are
already under warnings. However we will monitor for the potential
issuance of a short fuse watch dependent on the storm organization
to out southwest.

The shortwave will move off to the northeast Tuesday but
additional weak perturbations moving across the region will
maintain at least a chance for additional convection.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

The unsettled weather will continue through the week into next
weekend with a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms. This
occurs as series of shortwaves track through an active quasi-zonal
pattern. The coverage of rainfall will vary day to day but details
are difficult to determine given the uncertainty of the timing and
strength of passing shortwave troughs. Even with the chance of
rain most days will not be a wash out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 554 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR conditions early this evening will gradually become MVFR and
eventually IFR late tonight. A complex of convection and storms
will move up into the Missouri Ozarks later this evening. The best
timing will be between 02z to 05z followed by scattered showers.
Ceilings will drop to IFR after 06z for all sites. MVFR ceilings
early tomorrow morning will give way to VFR by late morning. Winds
will be southeasterly around 10 knots then becoming southwesterly
late tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Griffin





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