Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 161101

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
601 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

A few showers and some isolated storms remain over portions of
western Missouri early this morning. This activity continues to
weaken and should dissipate around sunrise this morning.

This afternoon may see some redevelopment of some
isolated/scattered storms across the eastern Ozarks. With
instability increasing, a few of the stronger storms may be
capable of strong wind gusts.

Highs will warm into the upper 80s to the lower 90s this
afternoon. Heat index values of around 100 degrees are expected
generally along and west of I-49.

Additional storms are expected to develop across Iowa this
afternoon/evening. These storms will develop into another complex
of storms and dive to the southeast. How far west this MCS can
affect will depend on exactly where the storms develop but the
best potential for the storms will be across central Missouri

The MCS will be strongest to the north, and should be weakening as
it pushes into our area, but strong to severe wind gusts are
expected with the storms, especially  across central Missouri. A
few of the strongest updrafts will also have the potential for
some penny to perhaps quarter hail.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

A few lingering showers/storms may be over portions of the
eastern Ozarks Saturday morning. If any outflow boundaries remain
over the area from the morning convection an isolated storm of two
will be possible but overall most of Saturday should be dry.

Hot and humid conditions will occur across the entire area on
Saturday. Highs should warm into the lower to middle 90s Saturday
afternoon with heat index values around 100 to 106 degrees. The
hottest conditions will occur across extreme southeastern Kansas
into western Missouri where heat index values around 105 degrees
are expected. As a result will go ahead an issue a Heat Advisory
for these areas.

A cold front will then slide south into northern Missouri
Saturday evening. Storms will develop along the front then the
front and storms will slide southeast through the area into
Saturday night. Again strong to severe storms are expected to the
north with storms generally again weakening as they spread south.
A strong to severe damaging wind risk will occur across the area
especially locations north of Highway 54. A large hail risk will
also be possible.

Cooler conditions will spread into the area Sunday into early next
week. Highs in the upper 70s/low 80s are expected Sunday and
Monday. Temperatures then will warm into the middle/end of next
week with highs in the upper 80s/low 90s returning.

An upper level disturbance will push through the area Monday into
Tuesday and may trigger a few storms. AT this time do not expected
widespread coverage to occur.

A better chance of showers and storms will then occur later next
week as an upper level system and front slide south through the


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 558 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Expecting a south wind today across the area including 3 terminal
sites. Convection to the south should end by mid morning with
another chance at scattered convection later this afternoon.
Chances at the terminal sites look to be fairly low at this time.
An MCS is expected to develop well to the north this evening and
push southeast towards the area overnight. For now, not mentioning
in current set of TAFS. VFR conditions expected through the
period, but if a storm could form over a terminal location, some
brief MVFR will be possible.


MO...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ055-066>068-

KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ073-097-101.



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