Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 171650

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1150 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 223 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

A surface ridge axis continued to slide slowly to the southeast
across southern Missouri early this morning. With calm winds and
mostly clear skies across the eastern Ozarks, temperatures have
again fallen into the middle to upper 30s over that region. There
is likely some patchy frost early this morning across the eastern
Ozarks, along with some lake and river valley fog.

Farther to the west, light southeast breezes and increasing high
clouds have kept temperatures in the lower to middle 40s

That surface ridge axis will continue to settle southeast and will
extend from the Ohio River Valley to the Arklatex by early this
afternoon. We are looking at another pleasant day with south to
southwest winds increasing a bit. High temperatures over most
areas should be around 70 degrees under mostly sunny skies.

Temperatures will not be quite as cool tonight as light southerly
breezes persist. Lows will range from the lower 40s over south-
central Missouri to the upper 40s along the I-49 corridor.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 223 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

A big warming trend is then on tap as we finish out the work week.
An upper level ridge will shift over the Ozarks from Wednesday
night into Thursday with southwesterly flow aloft then settling
over the region on Friday in the wake of the ridge.

Increasing southerly winds and 850 mb temperatures warming into
the 14-18 degree Celsius range support going on the warm side of
guidance for high temperatures. Most areas should see high
temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s for Thursday and
Friday. Dry weather will continue for this period.

A vigorous upper level trough is then forecast by models to swing
out into the Plains on Saturday and pass over the Missouri Ozarks
region from late Saturday night into Sunday. Showers and
thunderstorms should develop with an accompanying cold front and
sweep across the area sometime in the later Saturday through
Sunday time frame.

Moisture return and trajectories ahead of this system will
initially be rather poor through Thursday night. The western Gulf
of Mexico should then begin to open up starting on Friday and
continuing into Saturday ahead of this system. If enough quality
moisture can return north into the region, there would be some
potential for strong to severe storms. We will continue to monitor
this trend closely.

Global models are then showing more consensus with that trough
moving off to our east in a quicker fashion from Sunday night into
Monday. There is good support for this trend from the GFS
ensembles and the five wave charts. Thus, precipitation should
end across the region by Monday with a return to cooler (but still
slightly above normal) temperatures.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail
across the TAF sites this afternoon through the day on Wednesday.
Surface high pressure will remain west of the area and could
allow some gusty winds to occur at times.




SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
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