Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 171140
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
640 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Sunday night)

A cool front was surging across southern Missouri this morning
causing surface breezes to shift to the northwest. There was
little change in temperatures with readings holding steady in the
50s.

A very dry air mass will persist across the region through the
weekend creating comfortable weather. Particularly anyone planning
outdoor activities, conditions will be ideal, with temperatures
warming into the 70s today. Readings in the 60s will be common
both Saturday and Sunday, as overnight lows fall into the 40s.

Regarding the synoptic pattern, amplification to the upper level
pressure structure will occur, with troughing to the east and
height rises to the west. The Ozarks will be caught in northwest
flow through Sunday, which is conducive to dry weather with no
precipitation chances.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)

By Monday, some signals suggest that a few showers and isolated
thunderstorms are possible across southern Missouri. The GFS
offers a solution favorable for some rain, as an upper level speed
max approaches from the northwest. The GFS`s upper jet structure
would be more ideal for rain as opposed to the ECMWF which
shows dry weather through Monday. We have leaned our forecast
closer to the GFS, and added a 20 percent chance for rain in all
locations.

The rest of next week looks dry and mild. A large upper ridge
gradually shifts across the nation`s mid section bringing plenty
of sunshine on an afternoon basis Tuesday through Thursday.

Afternoon highs next week should warm into the 60s and 70s, with
overnight lows in the 40s.

We are getting into the time of year when frost or freeze
conditions could be of concern to area produce operations. There
remains no indications of frost of freeze through the next seven
days.

Have a great weekend !

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 635 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A sfc trough went through the region
last night with a ridge of high pressure building into the Plains.
A light northwest wind and vfr conditions are expected. Some
shallow ground fog may develop at the end of the taf period in wind
sheltered areas and near area lakes, but modest chances for
significant fog at taf sites precludes mentioning it for now.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA






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