Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 152022

322 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)

Showers were exiting the Ozarks region this afternoon in response
to the passage of a weak upper level disturbance. We left in some
miner pops over the eastern Ozarks for this evening`s period as
some of the short term models were signaling some QPF in that
area, created by weak lift still to come. If anyone does receive
rain, it would range from a trace to just a few hundredths of an

We will also need to watch for clearing overnight. Light winds and
clear skies would lead to radiation fog development. Right now
we`re not too confident in skies clearing enough for fog
development, but the evening forecasters will need to watch this
risk closely.

Lows tonight will fall into the low to mid 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)

Flow quickly evolves into an unusual split flow pattern tomorrow
on through the weekend. An upper low digs into the Great Basin,
popping short term ridging over southern Missouri. This will bring
mostly sunny skies to the Ozarks tomorrow, with highs in the 70s.
Surface winds will be light and variable.

Southerly winds will commence tomorrow night as the upper level
low shifts closer to the region. Anticyclonic flow around this
feature will also transport moisture in from the Gulf.

This will lead to showers and thunderstorm chances heading into
Friday and through the weekend. I`m not sure if we`ll be able to
generate sufficient instability across southern Missouri for an
organized episode of severe storms anytime this weekend. Therefore
we will leave severe storms out of the Hazardous Weather Outlook
for the moment.

Split flow continues into next work week with a possible break
from rain chances Monday and Tuesday, with additional rain chances
starting Wednesday or Thursday, as energy approaches from the


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: IFR conditions and an area of
light rain is currently moving through the area early this
afternoon. This rainfall has already pushed east of the KJLN site
and will push out of the KSGF and KBBG TAF sites during the mid
afternoon hours. visibilities will improve after the rain pushes
out, but IFR/LIFR ceilings will continue this afternoon into early
Thursday morning.

Fog is expected to develop overnight into early
Thursday and could become dense at times. By mid morning Thursday
flight conditions should start to improve.




LONG TERM...Cramer
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