Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
FXUS63 KSGF 130826
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
326 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014
...Severe storms possible later today and tonight followed by much
colder temperatures with a hard freeze likely Monday night and
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 252 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
It is a very mild and breezy morning across southeast Kansas and
the Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures this morning are where our
normal highs would be for this time of year. Some convection is
already developing across portions of southeast Kansas this
morning. This will continue to further develop and move northward.
The 00z 4KM WFR model shows this development well and think that
the model has a good handle of the evolution of storms today and
this evening for the area.
All the 00z suite of models show convection developing by 18z
across southwestern Missouri into central Missouri in the warm
sector. Bulk shear will be up to 50 knots. Instability will
between 1000-1200 J/KG. 0-3KM Storm Relative Helocities will be up
to 500 M2/S2. This convection may be strong to severe with the
primary threats large hail and damaging wind gusts. There will be
a low potential for an isolated tornado or two mainly late this
afternoon into the early evening hours with the better potential
over southeast Kansas into extreme southwestern Missouri.
A strong to severe line of storms will be developing along the
advancing cold front by 00z across southeast Kansas into western
Missouri. The main threat again will be large hail and damaging
wind gusts. The front will slowly undercut the line of storms
through the evening hours as it advances southeastward. The front
will be through Springfield before Midnight and through the
eastern Ozarks before 6 am. Storm total rainfall will be around 1
inch with isolated amounts up to 2 inches.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
Much colder air will be moving in on gusty northerly winds by
Monday morning. The main trough will be moving through the area by
the midday and early afternoon hours. Monday will be a shock
compared to the nice warm weather this weekend. Cloudy and dreary
conditions with north winds gusting up to 35 mph...off and on rain
showers with temperatures falling most of the day into the middle
and upper 30s...Wind chills will be in the 20s.
There is still indications from the models and forecast soundings
that enough cold air aloft will be available for either some wet
snow mixing in or changing over by late morning to midday on
Monday. The better potential for seeing wet snow falling will be
along and north of the I-44 corridor and the higher elevations of
the Ozark Plateau. No accumulations are expected with the warm
ground temperatures and the air temperatures will be in the middle
to upper 30s.
Skies will clear from west to east Monday evening and temperatures
will continue to drop as the Canadian high pressure moves in.
There is high confidence that most of the area will see
temperatures in the middle to upper 20s Monday night into Tuesday
morning. Some patchy to areas of frost may occur if the wind relax
enough and in sheltered areas. Will go ahead and issue a Freeze
Watch area wide for Monday night.
Temperatures will slowly moderate through the middle of the week.
May see another round of frost and near freezing temperatures
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Temperatures will be near
seasonable averages by Thursday before another trough and cold
front moves through and briefly cools temperatures back down for
the end of the week. A good chance of showers will accompanying
the cold front late Thursday into Friday.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
Shortwave energy embedded within an upper level trough will move
towards the area from the southwest tonight and start pushing into
the area Sunday morning. Have brought in showers during the
morning hours Sunday with this shortwave and brought in MVFR
conditions with the showers. Winds will remain gusty overnight in
the 25 to 30 kt range along with some low level wind shear. Winds
will continue to increase during the day Sunday with the approach
of the shortwave. Better instability is expected during the
afternoon on Sunday and will carry thunder after around 18z. Front
should move into the area during the evening with convection
continuing behind the front.
MO...FREEZE WATCH from Monday evening through Tuesday morning FOR
KS...FREEZE WATCH from Monday evening through Tuesday morning FOR