Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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066
FXUS63 KSGF 140005
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
605 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

...Update to Aviation for 00Z TAFs...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 221 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

Heaviest freezing rain axis has shifted a bit northward from this
morning where 0.20 to around 0.50" of ice accretion occurred
roughly along the I-44 corridor. Heaviest freezing rain as of 2 pm
was located from near Greenfield to the Lake of the Ozarks region.
The freezing line has not moved too much today and was located
along or just south of the I-44 corridor. Temperatures across the
far southwest corner of Missouri had warmed into the 33 to 35
degree range. Main forecast focus will remain with the movement of
the surface freezing line and resultant precipitation type and
amount through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 221 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

For tonight, most of the models want to continue warming the
temperatures, with the GFS remaining the most bullish. Like the
ECMWF surface temperature profile the best which keeps mid to
upper 20s in west central to central MO...the freezing line at or
around the I-44 corridor and some mid 30s along and south of US
60. Because of some possible meandering of the freezing line, do
not plan on removing any counties from the current configuration
of the Ice Storm warning, even though a couple of counties could
be removed based specifically on our going surface temperature
forecast. If this freezing line moves just slightly further
southward, then these southern counties would also be under the
gun with additional rainfall tonight. Current wave of
precipitation over our northern CWA will continue this evening as
freezing rain. An additional wave of precipitation will move into
the area overnight, affecting both central and southern Missouri,
again with freezing rain north of the freezing line and rain south
of the freezing line.

Heading into Saturday, the precipitation will continue to push
from southwest to northeast across the area, with the freezing
line gradually shifting northwestward during the day. The heaviest
amount of icing will be from around Bourbon county KS into west
central and central Missouri, where another half inch to 0.60" of
ice will be possible. By Saturday night, all but the far northwest
to northern part of the CWA should be at freezing or above, with
rain for most areas and freezing rain continuing for the small
area remaining below freezing.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 221 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

Temperatures should eventually warm above freezing for the entire
area by midday Sunday with highs from the upper 30s to mid 50s.
Most of the remaining precipitation will affect central MO during
the day on Sunday, surging north with the warmer air. The main
upper low will begin lifting northeast out of the southern Rockies
and into the southern high plains by late in the day. There will
likely be a lull in the precipitation across much of southern
Missouri during the afternoon and evening hours on Sunday.

By late Sunday night, energy from the upper low will begin to move
into the area, along with a ribbon of higher dewpoints and
instability. Will likely see some embedded thunderstorms with the
shower activity, which will likely linger through the day Monday
into possibly Monday night.

Total storm rainfall from an inch to 1.75 inches (in addition to
the heavy precipitation from today) is expected with this storm
system, which may cause some limited flooding potential and plan
on adding this back to the EHWO risks.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 552 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

LIFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites this evening through
the day Saturday as a stratus deck remains over the area as a
storm system remains southwest of the area.

Fog will also occur this evening and tonight and will be dense at
KBBG through most the night.

Drizzle will be possible through much of the TAF periods with
periods of rain, more rain will occur late tonight into Saturday
morning. Then drizzle will remain possible through Saturday
afternoon.

Above freezing temperatures will occur at the KBBG site through
the entire TAF period. Temperatures are currently above freezing
at the KSGF site, with the freezing like just to the north. The
freezing line could slide back to the south late tonight/early
Saturday morning before lifting back to the north on Saturday. At
this time did not mention any freezing rain or drizzle at KSGF.
KJLN is currently below freezing and not expected to warm above
freezing until Saturday afternoon, therefore freezing drizzle and
periods of freezing rain will occur at times there.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST Saturday for MOZ095>097-
     101>106.

     Ice Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Saturday for MOZ082-083-088-
     090>096-098.

     Ice Storm Warning until noon CST Sunday for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>081-089.

KS...Ice Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Saturday for KSZ101.

     Ice Storm Warning until noon CST Sunday for KSZ073-097.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Wise



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