Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 121759
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1259 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

It felt like an October night over extreme southeast Kansas and
the Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures fell into the 40s and 50s, under
mostly cloudy skies and northeast breezes.

A Canadian air mass had spread across southern Missouri, which
should remain in place through the weekend. This air mass will
offer cool weather, with highs only in the 60s today and Saturday,
and lows falling into the 40s tonight and Saturday night.

An upper level disturbance is expected to pass over the region
tonight into Saturday morning. None of the models are suggesting
rain with this feature, therefore we have left precipitation
chances out for now.

This upper low will force another shot of Canadian air across the
Ozarks.

By Sunday, clearing skies and the return of southerly winds will
facilitate warmer temperatures, with afternoon highs warming into
the 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)

Another disturbance is expected to approach on Monday. There is a
much better signal for widespread rainfall during the daytime as
moisture and instability will be sufficient for showers and
thunderstorms.

Another cold front will accompany this wave, with dry air surging
across southern Missouri behind it. We think conditions will stay
dry from Monday night through at least Wednesday night, with very
comfortable weather expected Tuesday and Wednesday.

There are indications of a decent warming trend beyond Wednesday,
as medium range models hint toward a strong ridge to build across
the Plains. This pattern could boost temperatures back into the
80s late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

Cloud cover across the region was keeping MVFR ceilings in place
for area terminals. A few brief periods of IFR may occur thought
eh afternoon and early evening, but otherwise little change is
expected. High pressure moving towards the region will bring slowly
improving conditions after sunrise tomorrow. Some brief MVFR
visibilities are expected for the Branson terminal around sunrise
as well.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1038 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

A northerly wind and clouds will make it tough for temperatures to
warm much today. The following are record low high temperatures
for today.

Site   Temp    Year
SGF     60     1892
JLN     64     1975
UNO     65     1975
VIH     62     1975

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Hatch
CLIMATE...Gagan








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