Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 170805
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
305 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Sunday night)

A cool front was surging across southern Missouri this morning
causing surface breezes to shift to the northwest. There was
little change in temperatures with readings holding steady in the
50s.

A very dry airmass will persist across the region through the
weekend creating comfortable weather. Particularly anyone planning
outdoor activities, conditions will be ideal, with temperatures
warming into the 70s today. Readings in the 60s will be common
both Saturday and Sunday, as overnight lows fall into the 40s.

Regarding the synoptic pattern, amplification to the upper level
pressure structure will occur, with troughing to the east and
height rises to the west. The Ozarks will be caught in northwest
flow through Sunday, which is conducive to dry weather with no
precipitation chances.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)

By Monday, some signals suggest that a few showers and isolated
thunderstorms are possible across southern Missouri. The GFS
offers a solution favorable for some rain, as an upper level speed
max approaches from the northwest. The GFS`s upper jet structure
would be more ideal for rain as opposed to the ECMWF which
shows dry weather through Monday. We have leaned our forecast
closer to the GFS, and added a 20 percent chance for rain in all
locations.

The rest of next week looks dry and mild. A large upper ridge
gradually shifts across the nation`s mid section bringing plenty
of sunshine on an afternoon basis Tuesday through Thursday.

Afternoon highs next week should warm into the 60s and 70s, with
overnight lows in the 40s.

We are getting into the time of year when frost or freeze
conditions could be of concern to area produce operations. There
remains no indications of frost of freeze through the next seven
days.

Have a great weekend !

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

Clear skies and VFR conditions will continue through Friday
evening. Low level wind shear will persist for much of tonight
around Branson. Surface winds will increase out of the northwest
on Friday but will generally remain below 12 knots.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann





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