Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 280435
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1135 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

Upper level flow forecast to become more progressive as we head into
the start of the new work week as east coast ridge begins to
flatten. Most significant dynamics during this transition are
forecast to remain well removed from our area, and although the
system over the west coast is a strong one, its impacts should
remain west of our FA through Tuesday given its slow eastward
progression.  So, overall rain chances should remain quite low.

The one possible exception to this dry weather trend is due to the
projected movement of the cutoff low currently over western IA.
There is good agreement among the models that the weakening remnants
of this system will drift back into northern MO Sunday afternoon and
evening, with some energy from this feature just brushing northern
sections of the CWA while weakening surface ridge will allow just a
bit of an increase in lower tropospheric moisture. Due to these
trends will go for a few more clouds during the day on Sunday, but
will maintain a dry forecast for now.

Surface synoptic pattern will remain quite stagnant, with the CWA
lingering on the southwest fringes of the weakening surface ridge.
Because of this quasi-stationary pattern, persistence should
provide very good temperature guidance, with upcoming temperature
trends very similar to those over the past 48 hours; namely lows
ranging from the mid 50s to lower 60s and highs primarily in the
80 to 85 degree range.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

Although main upper low with current west coast system will be
lifting into the Dakotas, the remainder of the broad UA trof will
gradually work its way across the Plains and into the Mississippi
Valley during the middle of the week. Available medium range
guidance suggests a fairly high likelihood of showers and
thunderstorms especially on Thursday and Thursday night as low
levels of the ams moisten nicely with a persistent and slowly
increasing southerly flow interacts with approaching upper level
dynamics and associated cold front. Have gone with likely PoPs
over most of the area during this time frame, and if later
guidance remains in good agreement its very possible that these
values may need to be bumped up.

Passage of cold front should lessen the rain threat by Friday to
a few lingering showers over northern and eastern sections of the
CWA, with dry weather across the entire area by Saturday.

Temperatures will remain a bit above normal for one more day on
Wednesday. A cooling trend is then expected for the latter half of
the week, with the passage of the cold front and the arrival of
cooler air making it feel very much like fall by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

VFR conditions are expected to continue at area terminals through
Sunday as surface high pressure remains the dominant weather
feature. Surface winds will continue light from the east-
southeast.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Truett/LSX
LONG TERM...Truett/LSX
AVIATION...Foster






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