Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 161655
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1155 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 222 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

Surface high pressure was over the area early this morning with
upper level height rises pushing into the area with upper level
ridging. Temperatures had cooled into the low to upper 40s so far
this morning with a light wind and only a little high level
cloudiness.

Forecast will continue to focus on temperatures through the short
term and much of the extended as well, with little moisture
expected over the area through the seven day period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 222 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

Temperatures should warm up rather nicely today for mid October.
850 mb temperatures are progged in the mid teens out ahead of a
trough today and mixing down to the surface from 900-875mb yields
temperatures in the low 70s out east to the mid and upper 70s in
the western CWA. Shortwave and surface front will push through
later tonight but will move through without any precipitation as atmosphere
remains quite dry.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

Some cool air advection will begin to take place on Friday and
should see cooler temperatures in central MO and readings
remaining in the low to mid 70s across the south. A better cold
air push will arrive Friday night into Saturday as the main upper
level shortwave drives through to the southeast and surface and
Canadian high pressure takes residence over the area. Temperatures
should return to the 40s for lows and 60s for highs and by
Saturday night may see some upper 30s to low 40s over the eastern Ozarks.

More shortwave energy will move into the area late Sunday into
Sunday night, but again lack of moisture will keep pops on the low
side. Will keep low pops going, but not confident in measuring
anything at this point.

Northwest flow aloft will give way to a progressive upper level
ridge by late Tuesday through the end of the seven day period and
should keep dry conditions going across the area along with
temperatures warming back up into the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1155 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: VFR conditions will occur at
the TAF sites this afternoon through Friday morning and beyond.
Southerly winds around 10-13kts with gusts up to 20kt are expected
this afternoon, with winds weakening some and becoming variable
this evening into the overnight hours. Low level wind shear will
also be possible at the TAF sites this evening through the overnight
hours. Winds will become northwesterly by the morning hours
Friday.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Wise





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