Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 232320
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
620 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 212 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

Hot conditions continue across the Missouri Ozarks and extreme
southeast Kansas this afternoon. Temperatures were in the mid to
upper 90s with heat index values from the upper 90s to around 102.
Dew points have really tanked on the Plateau with readings in the
upper 50s to low 60s...while elsewhere were from the mid to upper
60s. Still expecting heat index values from 100 to 106 during the
afternoon across the area with a heat advisory in affect across
the entire area.

The main forecast focus will be with the heat through the early
part of the upcoming work week and then with the timing of a front
and thunderstorm chances Wed/Thu.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

While near record or record temperatures are expected this
afternoon (as of 2 pm SGF has already tied a record at 99 degrees)
the heat index values have not been too out of hand as drier air
has mixed down to the ground and caused dew points to dip into the
upper 50s to low 60s along the plateau and mid to upper 60s
elsewhere so far.

The reason for the heat and dry conditions is an upper level ridge
of high pressure over the lower and middle Mississippi valley
regions. Shortwave energy will shift from the Rockies into the
upper Mississippi valley region from tonight through Monday with
the ridge remaining in place across the forecast area. This will
keep the area dry and hot and we will continue the heat advisory
going through 7 pm Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

Will eventually probably need to extend the advisory (at least for
a portion of the area) further in time as models continue to lag
with the timing of the shortwave which will eventually break down
some of the ridging and bring a front into the region. This is
expected to occur by the middle to later portion of the upcoming
work week, but we will likely continue with the hot conditions
until more cloud cover/precipitation can develop into the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 552 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period as the area
remains under high pressure both at the surface and aloft. Winds
will gradually diminish and back around sunset.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 312 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

The following is a list of record high temperatures and the last
year of occurrence through early next week:

August 23rd...

SGF...99/1991
JLN..102/1947
VIH...98/1962
UNO...99/2000

August 24th...

SGF...100/1938
JLN...102/1947
VIH....97/1978
UNO...100/1983

August 25th...

SGF...100/1983
JLN...101/2003
VIH...101/1973
UNO...100/1983

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Monday FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Monday FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Gaede
CLIMATE...Boxell






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