Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 041734

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1134 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
Issued at 237 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

An upper level trough is currently pushing east across the Plains
early this morning. An area of rain is spreading east across
eastern Kansas into northern Missouri ahead of the trough. As the
trough moves east the shield of rain will also shift east and
spread across the area. Drier air will then spread into the area
as the trough axis moves into the area and brings an end to the
rain from west to east. The rain will generally spread out of the
area and end mid day, though some linger light rain may occur into
early this afternoon across the far eastern Ozarks. Temperatures
in the lower levels will remain warm enough for all rain to occur
this morning with this system.

Clouds will persist across the area through early this afternoon
then some breaks in the clouds may start to spread into
southeastern Kansas and western Missouri by late this afternoon..
Highs today will range from the lower 40s across central Missouri
where clouds will persist all day, to the lower 50s across
southeastern Kansas will some peaks of sun will occur this

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 237 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

With the cold front clearing the region this evening, surface
high pressure will move over the Ozarks tonight and into Monday
morning. The rather progressive upper level pattern will not allow
this surface high to remain in the area for long however. While it
is in the region, overnight lows will drop into the lower 30s.
With the residual moisture from todays rainfall, combined with
clearing skies and light to calm winds, some patchy fog may

Southerly winds will return for Monday as an upper level
trough/area cut off low moves across Texas. This will help bring
more moisture into the region Monday afternoon and evening and
another round of rain for the Ozarks Monday night into early
Tuesday morning.

The Monday night system will, like todays system have a short
residence time over the Ozarks. A very strong storm system moving
across Canada will bring an arctic airmass into the northern
plains this week, ultimately pushing into the region during the
day Wednesday. As this cold airmass moves over the area, the
Pacific moisture along with remaining low level moisture in place
over the area will bring the potential for light accumulations of
snow to the Ozarks Wednesday afternoon into the evening. Current
indication are for a dusting up to 2 inches in some spots, however
there remains modest discrepancies in the lift and moisture
quality for the winter system. Will need to monitor the model
trends as we head into the start of the week for better confidence
in the snow potential.

Regardless of how much snow falls, the cold airmass will produce
highs on Thursday only int eh middle to upper 20s. Overnight lows
Thursday morning and again Friday will only be in the teens with
wind chills in the lower single digits expected.

With the upper pattern remaining progressive into the weekend, yet
another Storm system will begin to move across the Rockies and into
the plains Saturday. Gusty southerly winds will occur during the
start of the day Saturday which should help to recharge the areas
moisture profile once again. This may result in some snow for
early Saturday morning before southerly flow brings warmer
temperatures into the region with highs in the upper 30s to low
40s, changing the precipitation to rain during the day.

The storm system will move quickly across the plains and through
the Ozarks with the rain mixing with and then changing to snow
once again Saturday night into Sunday morning with some light
accumulation possible by Sunday morning as the system lifts out of
the area.

Overall, it looks like winter will make its first real appearance
to the Ozarks over the next week to 10 days.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1134 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Shortwave trough currently working its
way across the Missouri Ozarks, with surface trough delineating the
back edge of the preciptiation shield. Will see rain push east
through the far eastern Ozarks this afternoon, with improving flight
conditions at the TAF sites. Steadily rising ceilings will occur
as clearing line pushes eastward this afternoon and evening.

Surface high pressure settles over the region tonight with light
winds and clear skies. Short term models all indicating the likely
development of fog across much of the the area. Visibilities will
likely drop to IFR, with LIFR not out of the question at KSGF and
KBBG after 06z Tonight and persist through 15Z Monday.




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