Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 231159
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
559 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Most locations remained dry overnight as a storm system continued
to approach the Ozarks region from the west. Eventually this
feature will force showers as early as this morning, and expand in
areal coverage throughout the day. We think most locations will
experience measurable rain this morning or this afternoon.

Perhaps better rain coverage will occur tonight as a cold front
sweeps through the area. There is a chance that some light snow
could mix with rain at times, particularly along and north of the
Interstate 44 corridor. The change over to some snow would not
occur until late in the evening or after midnight.

As of now we are not forecasting any accumulations, but the day
shift will need to take another look at this potential. The one
ingredient holding back slam dunk snow accumulation is
temperature, which may stay warm enough to mitigate
accumulations.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

Precipitation will exit the Ozarks early Monday morning, beginning
an extended period of dry weather.

Deep northwest flow will overcome much of the nation`s mid section
through the entire upcoming work week. This pattern will shut down
the Gulf of Mexico, while keeping temperatures slightly cooler
than normal for late November.

Look for temperatures in the 40s on an afternoon basis through
Saturday, with overnight lows in the 20s and 30s.

No precipitation is forecasted from Monday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 543 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A couple of disturbances will move
by and/or through the fcst area during this taf period. The first
is already producing some showers near and east of the taf sites
with mostly mvfr ceilings. This will shift away from the area over
the next few hours with a dry slot and just some light precip and
borderline ifr/mvfr stratus ceilings for a brief period. Finally
a strong cold front will move rapidly east through the area from
00z-04z with another round of showers and then a brief period of
post frontal rain and ifr ceilings (possibly briefly mixing or
changing to wet snow before ending by 06z-09z). Strong west-
northwest winds with gusts of 30-35kts will be possible after the
frontal passage.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA






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