Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 162314
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
614 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A stalled front was currently located just to our south near the
I-40 corridor. Clouds for the most part have held on for most of
the area with the far northwestern areas being the exception. A
mid level impulse located near South Dakota this afternoon will
move across the area by early Wednesday morning. A modest low
level jet will develop late tonight with elevated CAPE values
between 1000 to 2000 J/KG. Effective shear will be around 35
knots.

A cluster of convection will develop around southeast Kansas and
western Missouri after 3 am tonight through the early morning
hours on Wednesday. Initial storm development could lead to a few
stronger updrafts and marginally severe hail. The threat area for
that by tomorrow morning will be west of Highway 65. Average QPF
from storms tonight through Wednesday night will be around an inch
with isolated heavier amounts up to two inches possible across west
central Missouri.

This first cluster of convection will move off to the southeast
and be dissipating by late morning to midday Wednesday. The
frontal boundary will be oriented from northwest to southeast
roughly southeast Kansas to the Branson area by tomorrow
afternoon. There is some uncertainty about the chances for any
afternoon convection tomorrow. Temperatures will also be tricky
with lower 70s far eastern Ozarks to the lower 80s across far
southwestern Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Another subtle impulse will generate another cluster or scattered
convection Wednesday evening into Wednesday night over the area.
Again a few isolated stronger storms can not be ruled out with
marginally severe hail being the threat. Will keep the chance for
additional scattered convection on Thursday with the boundary in
the area.

Upper level ridging will build in late Thursday into Friday with a
modest warming trend for the end of the week. A trough will
develop over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest by Saturday.
This will bring down a Canadian cold front with a chance for
showers and storms again late Saturday into early on Sunday.

There were some questions about the left over energy and moisture
from the tropical system affecting the southwestern U.S. being
pulled up into the trough and central U.S. It appears the leftover
energy and plume of tropical moisture will remain just to our
southwest across the upper Red River Valley region from the latest
12z guidance. Something to keep an eye on but likely will not
bring us any heavy rainfall across the Ozarks region.

Cold front clears through on Sunday bring cooler and drier weather
for early next week just in time for Autumn to begin late next
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...A low level stratus deck
remains over far southern Missouri early this evening. This
stratus deck has finally started to clear over the KSGF and KJLN sties,
but remains in place across the KBBG site early this evening. This
MVFR stratus deck is expected to persist over the Branson area
this evening through the overnight hours. VFR conditions are
expected over the Joplin and Springfield areas this evening, but
this MVFR stratus deck may build back over these areas during the
overnight hours.

A warm front will lift northeast through the region as a weak upper
level disturbance tracks to the southeast through the area. As the
disturbance tracks down the front scattered thunderstorms
will developing early Wednesday morning over the region. Do not
expect storms to develop along the front until the disturbance
runs down the front which will be over or just north of the TAF
sites starting near 10Z Wednesday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Wise






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