Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 231136
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
636 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

...12z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 215 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

After our taste of quiet and autumn-like weather, unsettled
conditions will return to the Missouri Ozarks today. A warm front
will lift north towards the region as upper level short wave
energy moves east across the central Plains. A low level jet
stream will override that front and induce isentropic upglide
across the area...especially this morning. This will result in
broken bands of showers and thunderstorms moving northeast across
the area.

Deep layer shear will be just strong enough to warrant a
marginal risk for a strong to severe storm or two across western
Missouri and southeastern Kansas (similar to the SPC Day 1
Outlook). The key to any severe potential will be whether or not
any sort of clearing can take place behind the morning storms. If
we see breaks west of U.S. 65, that would open the door to more in
the way of robust convection.

Beyond the risk for showers and storms, perhaps the most
noticeable difference today (versus the last few days) will be a
return of muggy conditions. Dew points will steadily climb
through the 60s and into the lower 70s. High temperatures today
will not be all that warm due to the expected cloud cover and
precipitation. We are mainly looking at high temperatures in the
lower to middle 80s.

That short wave trough will then track across northern Missouri
tonight. We will see another low level jet stream develop with
isentropic upglide increasing once again. It looks like the
strongest upglide and focus will be roughly over the northeastern
half or so of Missouri. This should be where most of the showers
and thunderstorms occur tonight. We have gone with 30-40% PoPs to
cover this threat across central Missouri with PoPs decreasing the
farther southwest you travel.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 215 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

That warm front will have lifted north of the Missouri Ozarks by
Wednesday. A return to rather hot and humid conditions can
therefore be expected with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and
afternoon heat indices in the middle to upper 90s. The main risk
for thunderstorms on Wednesday should generally remain north of
the Ozarks.

That front should then "light up" with showers and thunderstorms
from later Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening along and
north of the I-70 corridor as more short wave energy begins to
approach from the central Rockies. Some of this activity may
eventually drift into central Missouri later Wednesday night.
However, we expect the bulk of the convection to remain closer to
I-70. As was the case with today, we think there will be a
marginal risk for severe storms if convection can make it into
central Missouri.

That front will then make slow progress south into the area from
Thursday into the end of this work week. The progress of this
front is still in question as the synoptic scale pattern is not
necessarily supportive of a big surge to the south. Convective
outflows may therefore be a bigger player in nudging this front
south with time. In general, chances for showers and thunderstorms
will increase late this week, however we will have to wait and
see how much progress that front makes.

The position of the front will also play a role in late week
temperatures. Areas south of the front will hold onto the warm and
muggy conditions with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s and
lows near 70.

Despite the front again lifting north of the area this weekend,
it appears that the threat for showers and storms will persist as
that warm and humid airmass spreads back over the area.
Additionally, medium range models seem to be indicating some sort
of upper level disturbance migrating northward out of the Gulf of
Mexico and eventually getting sucked in by the westerlies. This
would also warrant an increased chance for showers and storms.

At this point, early next week then looks fairly normal with a
continued low-end threat for storms and near normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Pilots flying in and out the of the Missouri Ozarks area this
morning can expected scattered convection developing between 12z
and 16z this morning. Mostly VFR conditions will prevail except
around convection where MVFR is expected. Have included a tempo
group with times of expected MVFR impacts to TAF sites.
Additional PROB30 group for scattered convection possible again
late this afternoon into the evening hours. Southerly winds will
become gusty up to 20 knots possible for SGF and JLN this
afternoon.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Griffin



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