Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 222015
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
215 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

...Soggy Weather This Evening and Sunday...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

An upper level storm system was currently over the Big Bend of
Texas and slowly moving northeastward. This system is picking up
moisture from the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico. One shield of
rain and even isolated thunder will continue to move from Oklahoma
and northern Arkansas into southern Missouri through the evening
hours.

Another shield of rain with isolated thunder will develop late
tonight into Sunday morning and spread across the area. No severe
weather expected but light to occasional moderate downpours can
be expected through Sunday. There are no changes in the forecast
through Sunday. Temperatures will be mild with lows in the 50s
tonight and highs in the lower 60s tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A cold front will move through the area Sunday night along with
another upper level disturbance. This will bring the last round of
showers Sunday night. Model soundings indicate there may be just
enough cold air aloft and the mid levels late Sunday night for
some of the showers to mix with some wet snow before ending. This
will be mainly north of I-44 and temperatures will be in the
middle to upper 30s. If this does occur...there will be no accumulations.

Skies will slowly clear Monday and turning windy. Temperatures
will struggle to reach the middle 40s. There will be a northwest
flow for most of next week. Temperatures will be below average and
a mostly dry forecast. There will be several dry frontal passages
to reinforce the cooler and dry air mass. Travelers on Wednesday
can expected quiet weather and dry weather around this area.
Thanksgiving looks cool and sunny. Slightly colder and dry weather
continues for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Busy forecast over the next 24 hours and beyond. Another wave of
showers and a few embedded storms is entering the region from the
southwest. This will mainly affect SGF/BBG aerodromes, though a
shower or two at JLN remains possible. Ceilings have bounced
around quite a bit over the past 12 or so hours and this should
continue into this evening. Lowest ceilings (mainly low end MVFR)
should be observed with any rainfall. Higher ceilings (low end
VFR) should occur outside of any rain into early this evening.
Trends continue to suggest that a lowering of ceilings is likely
heading into tonight and certainly on Sunday as widespread
rainfall engulfs the area. A heavier brand of rain is expected
during this time, as a result MVFR visibility and a drop to IFR
ceilings is probable for overnight tonight into Sunday. Gusty
southeast winds will give way to low level wind shear once again
tonight.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Gagan





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