Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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967
FXUS63 KSGF 190752
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
152 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

...Unseasonably Warm through Mid-Week with Showers Monday....

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 145 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

Areas of fog will impact south central Missouri and the eastern
Ozarks through early this morning. A Dense Fog Advisory is in
effect areas generally along and east of Highway 60.

Even warmer temperatures can be expected today as an upper level
ridge builds over the region. Persistent southerly winds and more
sunshine will support a warmer day.

An upper level trough now out west will makes it way eastward.
Clouds will increase from the west tonight in advance of this
system. Showers and some thunder will develop across the Plains
and make their eastward into eastern Kansas and western Missouri
late tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 145 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

The upper level trough and associated Pacific front will push
eastward across the region on Monday. A band of scattered to
numerous showers will spread across the Ozarks region from west to
east. Models continue to depict modest instability which will
support isolated thunderstorms. While most areas will receive
rainfall amounts will not put much of a dent in the current dry
spell.

Rising 500 MB heights and a more zonal pattern will follow the
passage of the upper level trough. This will keep the warm weather
pattern going through mid week. Highs Tuesday, Wednesday Thursday will
rise into the 70s.

The next upper level trough will approach the region Thursday and
Thursday night with a surface low progged to track from eastern
Kansas into northern Missouri. Rainfall at this time is looking
rather sparse with this system as quality of moisture and extent
of a capping inversion are in play.

Colder and more seasonable temperatures will follow the passage of
this system to end the week.

Fire weather conditions will have to be monitored Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1123 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

South winds are increasing at Springfield and Joplin and
temperatures have risen a couple of degrees at Springfield. So far
the stratus and thicker fog has remained east of the larger
airports in the area around West Plains where rain fell earlier
today. Springfield is reporting light fog and think visibilities
will meander between vfr and mvfr through much of the night as
temp/dewpoint spreads average 1-2 degrees.

Model guidance has backed off of the lower ceilings for this
morning but does bring them end toward the end of the forecast
period when the upper low over southern Arizona shifts closer to
the region.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Highs for the next two days follow:

             Feb 19th           Feb 20th
Springfield  72/2016            77/2016
Joplin       75/2011            78/2016
West Plains  73/1981            76/2016
Vichy-Rolla  70/2004 and 2016   75/2016

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MOZ082-083-
     097-098-106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Terry
CLIMATE...Foster



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