Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 092341

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
641 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017

...Mesoscale Discussion and Update to Aviation...

Issued at 618 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017

Scattered strong to marginally severe thunderstorms have been
ongoing for the past few hours from eastern Kansas into
northeastern Oklahoma. Most of the activity has developed near and
just north of a warm front which extends northeast from surface
low pressure near Tulsa. As storms have crossed north over the
front, they have tended to become less organized.

We have seen recent development closer to the Tulsa metro area.
These storms will have more in the way of instability to work with
over the next hour or two while having a greater residence time in
the warm sector. Deep layer shear remains supportive of
supercells, however high LCL heights (1200-1500 meters agl) have
tended to limit low level rotation and tornado potential up to
this point.

As we head into later this evening, height falls overspreading the
region should result in continued convective initiation along or
just behind that surface low/trailing cold front. However,
instability will begin to decrease along with increasing
convective inhibition. While we may see a few severe storms get
into our western counties from mid to late evening, we should see
an overall weakening trend as storms push farther east into the


Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017

Morning fog took a bit longer to burn off this morning with our
lower sun angle this time of year, but dissipated quickly once it
started to erode between 9 am and 11 am. In the wake of the fog,
temperatures have risen into the mid to upper 80s across the area.
Dewpoints were in the upper 50s to low 60s. Frontal boundary was
from west central MO to near Wichita, KS as of 2 pm, with much
drier and cooler air behind the front. Some cumulus have formed
over south central MO and also in southeast KS ahead of the front,
with a couple of storms just now developing as of 2 pm.
Instability of 1500-2000 j/kg surface based CAPE in southeast
Kansas and 40-50 kts of 0-6km shear ahead of the surface front.
Southeast Kansas is in a slight risk area with all modes of severe
weather possible this afternoon and early evening. Thunderstorm
forecast and severity will be the main focus with this forecast.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017

For the rest of the afternoon and tonight...will likely continue
to see some discrete thunderstorms develop ahead of the front this
afternoon/evening. Will see instability continue to increase
through the afternoon as well as deep layer shear as upper wave
approaches from the west. There will be a relatively small window
of opportunity for severe storms from 3 pm through about 10 pm and
mainly over our far western CWA, however given the favorable shear
and initial instability profiles, all modes of severe storms will
be possible. Instability should diminish quickly after sunset and
severe weather chances will likely end by mid to late evening, not
getting much further east than the I-49 corridor.

Conditions overnight will be more showery with some embedded
thunderstorms. Warm conditions are expected, especially over the
eastern Ozarks with cloud cover and southeast wind ahead of the
low and front.

The front will make it into the far western CWA by daybreak. Will
have a non-traditional temperature curve on Tuesday with
temperatures falling behind the front as stratus and cold air
advection move in behind the front. Eastern CWA will have the
warmest temperatures with the front moving through there later in
the day. In fact, thunderstorms may redevelop along the front over
the eastern Ozarks during the afternoon if enough instability can
develop. We currently have the eastern Ozarks in sub-severe but
strong storms possible for Tuesday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017

Any storms that redevelop should exit the area by Tuesday evening
with cooler and drier air moving into the region. Lows Tuesday
night will be in the 40s with highs Wednesday in the 60s.

Will see a gradual warming trend during the remainder of the work
week, back into the 80s for highs on Friday and Saturday. Models
are showing some timing differences for our next precipitation
chances with the GFS being quicker next weekend. We have trimmed
back on POPS slightly with these differences, but the best chances
will be Saturday into Sunday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017

Showers and thunderstorms will spread in an eastward fashion into
southern Missouri tonight and early Tuesday morning. MVFR and
local IFR conditions can be expected in the vicinity of storms.

Meanwhile, a cold front will slowly move east across the area from
late tonight into early Tuesday morning. Behind that front, winds
will increase out of the northwest with ceilings lowering into the
MVFR and IFR categories. The lower ceilings will then hang on
throughout the day.




SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Schaumann is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.