Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 222120
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
320 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 317 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

Next wave of cloudiness associated with the storm over the
southern Plains has been making a fairly strong northward surge
over the past few hours, and extrapolation of satellite imagery
suggests that northern edge of this cloudiness may get as far N as
northern sections of the FA by early this evening. This will then
work back to the east and south during the overnight hours, with
model RH progs suggesting several more batches of mid and high
cloudiness advecting across southeast sections of the CWA on
Friday. However, it still appears that any precip with the system
will remain south of the FA.

Temperatures should be fairly seasonal, with tonights lows primarily
in the 20s and Friday`s highs in the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 317 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

As the southern Plains storm system tracks into the southeast
U.S., NW mid level flow is forecast to become established over the
region, with this flow regime holding strong into at least Tuesday
of next week. This flow regime will keep the coldest air bottled
up over the Great Lakes and eastern U.S., which in turn should
mean fairly mild weather for the FA.

Primary forecast concern will be attempting to pin down specific
temperature trends, which will be somewhat tricky as this overall
mild-looking pattern will also be influenced by WAA/CAA couplets
produced by weak shortwaves migrating through this NW flow.
Temperatures will certainly moderate on Saturday, with model
consensus of thermal profiles suggesting highs in the upper 40s
over the eastern Ozarks to the mid 50s in the se KS counties.
Sunday should be warmer but uncertain by how much; ECMWF suggests
a very strong shortwave pushing into the mid-Mississippi Valley
which means CAA for the area for much of the day, while the other
solutions are slower/weaker with the shortwave and allows warmest
air to linger into the day. For now have maintained 50s over much
of the area, but if the slower/warmer solutions are correct some
60s will be possible over western areas of the FA.

Whichever solution you go with, temperatures will be cooler on
Monday as colder air in the wake of the shortwave pushes into the
region, but this drop should mean temperatures only returning to
more normal levels.   Moderation of AMS will mean more mild
weather/above normal temps in the Tue-Thu time frame.

Precip threat appears to be quite low heading into the weekend and
into the first half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 317 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

Model guidance and current trends indicate that the SW MO area
will stay VFR though the period. Stratus to the northeast and
south of the area are forcast too stay in their respective areas,
as the primary storm system moves well south of the arae. Light
northeast winds will give way to a more westerly flow on Friday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Truett
LONG TERM...Truett
AVIATION...JPK





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