Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 240454
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1154 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1147 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

Monitoring scattered elevated convection developing from portions
of central Kansas into northwestern Missouri. This activity
developing as a strengthening low level jet interacts with a
developing warm front extending from northern Oklahoma into
Arkansas.

Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop eastward into
southeastern Kansas and portions of southwestern and central
Missouri overnight into early Tuesday morning as the low level jet
veers and the warm front lifts north.

Will have to monitor for some small hail potential in these storms
but severe weather not expected overnight or early Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday night)

It was a fine day over extreme southeast Kansas and the Missouri
Ozarks. Temperatures warmed into the 60s and 70s, under a mix of
sun and clouds. Humidity was increasing in response to an
approaching storm system that is expected to trigger organized
thunderstorms late Tuesday afternoon and into the evening.

As moisture increases tonight, there are some indications that
scattered convection can not be ruled out mainly after midnight.

Warm sector convection can not be ruled out Tuesday morning either.
Although, we think coverage will be low.

By late Tuesday afternoon and evening, a dry line will approach
from the west, helping to trigger more organized thunderstorms.

Deep layer shear vectors positioned across the dry line would
suggest scattered supercells at the onset, and potentially
congealing some through the evening.

With low altitude -20 levels running around 18,000 to 20,000 feet above
the surface, these storms will have a tendency to produce large
hail. The more intense storms will be capable of hail size up to
half dollars.

Moisture quality will be lacking within the Ozark`s airmass on
Tuesday. RAOBS across the northwest Gulf Coast indicated a
continental airmass with PWATS well below 1 inch this morning.
Northerly trajectories persisted across much of the Gulf of Mexico
today, only to fully establish this dry airmass, over what is
normally our moisture source region.

Therefore we don`t think deep moisture will have a shot to
transport into the Ozarks prior to Tuesday`s storms. This will
limit low level instability needed for a tornado environment.

The other ingredient that would mitigate tornado development
regards the veering of surface winds to the south southwest prior
to storms developing.

With this said, we have highlighted the hail risk in the Hazardous
Weather Outlook, while mentioning only a limited risk for
tornadoes or damaging wind gusts.

Storms should exit most of the region by midnight Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)

A second round of organized storms is set to occur during the day
Wednesday. A cold front will approach from the north, triggering a
more widespread area of convection.

We think moisture depth will be better on Wednesday, creating a
risk for some heavy rain, particularly over parts of southern
Missouri. South central Missouri has saturated soil conditions,
therefore, a localized flood risk has been mentioned for this
area.

At this time, large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the
primary hazards with Wednesday`s storms.

Residual convection will linger into Wednesday night across far
southern Missouri, prior to exiting Thursday morning. A much
colder airmass will follow, limiting afternoon highs into the 40s
and 50s on Thursday.

Friday and Friday night will be even colder, with lows dropping
into the middle 20s early Saturday morning. Therefore another
freeze is expected late Friday into Saturday.

Beyond Saturday morning, a warming trend will commence as upper
level height rises builds across the nation`s midsection.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

Pilots can expect more active weather to develop through Tuesday.
A warm front will lift north across the area late tonight and
Tuesday morning generating scattered showers and storms
especially north of area terminal sites.

The chance of showers and thunderstorms will increase late
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening ahead of an advancing
front. A few of these storms could be strong to severe with hail.

Otherwise southerly winds will increase Tuesday and gradually veer
to the southwest.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Foster
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Foster





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