Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 310803

303 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

An upper level shear axis has shifted south of the Missouri Ozarks
overnight. This feature has been the focus for convection over the
past couple of days, including the flash flooding observed along Brushy
and Beaver Creeks yesterday morning.

The radar has been clear this morning, and we don`t believe there
will be much of a coverage for rainfall today with the upper
shear axis over Arkansas. Therefore, we will keep pops very low,
but not completely zero since afternoon instability does unfold
with little inhibition. Look for temperatures to warm into the
upper 80s and lower 90s.

Not much will change tonight with nearly all locations expected to
remain dry. Overnight lows will fall into the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

Despite the upper level belt of westerlies taking a trip north
into Canada, a weakness persists underneath the mean ridge. Model
data continues to show quiet weather for the Ozarks Region,
although we will need to watch the weakness / shear axis through
the work week for any convective development. As of now, we`re
pretty bearish on precipitation chances this week, with afternoon
temperatures warming into the upper 80s and lower 90s on a daily

There are indications that that a deep trough develops across the
Pacific Northwest during the upcoming weekend. This will
strengthen the upper ridge of the nation`s midsection, creating
above average temperatures for early September for Saturday and

Overall quiet weather over the next week or so with above average
temperatures. Have a great week !


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible overnight across
south-central Missouri as an upper level disturbance remains over
the region. We have included a TEMPO group at Branson to cover
this threat. MVFR and brief IFR conditions can be expected with
any storms.

Light fog is also expected overnight across western Missouri. We
have inserted a TEMPO group for MVFR fog at Joplin. At this time,
it looks like any dense fog potential will remain west of the

VFR is then expected by mid-morning across all of southern
Missouri with winds increasing out of the south. Joplin may see
gusts approaching 20 knots in the afternoon.




LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.