Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 050840

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
340 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Thu May 5 2016

Quiet weather is expected in the short term with a sfc ridge of
high pressure moving through the area. A good setup for efficient
radiational cooling is expected tonight with the ridge axis over
the eastern cwfa by 12z/7am Fri. Most MOS guidance for lows
tonight is in the low-mid 40s with the coolest spots over the
eastern cwfa. Wouldn`t be shocked to see some upper 30s in some
low lying hollows/microclimates in the eastern Ozarks.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Thu May 5 2016

Fri: The sfc ridge will moves off to the south with s-sw return
flow and a pretty good diurnal swing in temperatures Friday as an
upper level ridge axis approaches for the west. Friday looks great
for outdoor activities after a cool start.

Sat: We will start to see the first hints of an upcoming weather
change late Sat night, but more so Sunday into Monday. A slow
moving upper low will move into the central Rockies over the
weekend as the upper ridge shifts east and weakens. There will be
ill defined lead shortwaves embedded in the sw flow ahead of the
main upper system. By late Sat night most guidance is trying to
develop some elevated convection mostly along/north of I-70.
Initial Gulf moisture return Sat night is modified because of
recent Canadian air mass intrusions, so any activity over our area
is expected to be sparse and high based, if it occurs at all,
through Sat night. Have some small pops, mostly over our far
northern cwfa Sat night. SPC`s marginal risk for severe storms
would be for hail over the northern cwfa if a stronger updrafts
can get going with mucapes 500-1000 j/kg and 0-6km bulk shear
around 40-45 kts. Moisture return on progged GFS and NAM soundings
might be a bit ambitious.

Sunday-Mon: The main upper low is expected to move out into the
northern/central Plains Mon and take on a bit of a negative tilt
by 00z Tue/7pm Mon as the upper trough axis moves into
central/eastern KS. By this time, low level moisture should be
more robust with a persistent fetch off the western Gulf. We could
see some convection develop Sunday along the dryline (west) and
warm front (north) then move into our cwfa Sunday night. Weakening
sfc based instability by this time may limit the severe threat to
hail once again and maybe wind depending on the timing. By Mon the
picture may become more muddy thermodynamically depending on the
coverage/behavior/timing of ongoing convection. Progged soundings
from the GFS show moderate instability and continued more than
adequate deep layered shear for organized storms. The lack of
confidence in timing/placement of smaller scale features make it
difficult to be precise, but enough ingredients are there to
mention chances of severe storms Mon.

Tue-Wed: There is general agreement with the ops GFS and ECMWF of
moving another upper level wave se into the Rockies and Plains
Tue-Wed and this will keep the belt of of mid level westerlies-
southwesterlies over the area with periods of convection. In
general, most guidance is more active late Wed-Wed night with
upper level height falls from the next approaching shortwave, but
we have little confidence in the timing of individual episodes of
convection 6-7 days out. Used a blend of guidance for pops and
temperatures for this time frame.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Wed May 4 2016

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: VFR conditions will occur
tonight through Thursday as high pressure moves over the region.
Light northwest winds will occur tonight with winds increasing
late Thursday morning into the afternoon hours. Then winds will
become light and variable Thursday evening.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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