Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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651
FXUS63 KSGF 172256
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
456 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2017

...00z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)

It was a dark and dreary day over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures were steady in the mid to upper 40s,
as cloud cover, drizzle, and south breezes continued across the
region.

A very disorganized surface pressure pattern was observed over the
nation`s midsection underneath southwest flow aloft. This pattern
will bring a bit more moisture into the Ozarks tonight, allowing
for areas of drizzle and light fog to occur. The measurable rain
has ended, therefore, no pops are needed for tonight.

Overnight lows will fall into the upper 30s to near 40.

A cloudy start to the day is expected Monday, however, cloud
breaks and areas of sunshine are expected by the end of the
afternoon. Look for readings to bounce back into the middle and
upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

Another mild and dry day is expected Tuesday with temperatures
back into the low 60s. Rain will develop across Arkansas,
although, the models keep it mainly south of the state line. It`s
not out of the realm of possibility that areas of far southern
Missouri could receive some rain.

Middle 60s are possible Wednesday and Thursday as a storm system
strengthens to the west. This will pull Gulf air into the Ozarks,
increasing humidity and making the air feel more like spring.

As the system out west approaches Friday, showers and
thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of a cold front. We
will need to watch how much instability can evolve across southern
Missouri Friday morning and early afternoon. It`s possible that
some organized convection develops, with the better chances of
this occurring in south central Missouri.

This cold front will bring a strong surge of cold air to the
region, causing temperatures to fall into the teens.

As of now there is no indication of any snowfall through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 443 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2017

Very low ceilings and visibilities will be the main issues
tonight across the Ozarks Region. SGF and BBG TAFS will reflect
IRF to LIFR ceilings most of the night. There will be areas of
mist and drizzle from time to time. Ceilings and visibility will
not improve until about mid morning Monday with gradual clearing
by late morning. Winds will be light 5 knots or less out of the
southwest.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Griffin



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