Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 240159
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
859 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

...Mid Evening Update...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 851 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Have made some updates this evening to increase fog potential
across the region. Early evening temperatures have cooled a bit
faster than initially expected thanks to some breaks in the cloud
cover, and this has resulted in fog formation in several locations as
of mid evening. Temperatures will continue to cool through the
overnight, and with no dry air advecting into the region, many
locations will likely approach saturation during the overnight
hours. Fog will be patchy in nature, owning to the scattered to
broken nature of the cloud cover, and will be most likely in those
areas that experienced a brief shower earlier today.

For now, will take visibilities down to around a mile or so,
though lower values are certainly possible on a localized basis.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

For tonight, will start to see clearing from west to east as the
shortwave energy exits to the east. With some clearing and light
wind, we could see some patchy light fog develop over the northern
sections of the CWA and have included patchy 2 sm visibilities
there for the overnight period.

On Friday, an upper level ridge will begin to build into the area
from the southwest with warmer 850 mb temperatures into the mid to
upper teens advecting in from the west with temperatures reaching
the mid 70s east to low 80s west during the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

The ridge will continue to build into the area over the weekend
with continued well above normal temperatures expected. 850mb
temperatures in the mid to upper teens will continue with high
temperatures expected in the upper 70s to mid 80s both Saturday
and Sunday. These might approach records in a couple of locations,
but may be just short. (see climate section below)

By Sunday night the ridge will begin to deamplify a bit and push
east allowing for southwest flow aloft to set up over the area in
advance of the next upper level trough. There should be some good
low level moisture advection from the Gulf also setting up
starting Sunday night and continuing into Tuesday which will aid
in better precipitation chances than what we saw today as the next
shortwave pushes into the area Monday night and Tuesday. Unlike
yesterday, the ECMWF has become more progressive with this trough,
similar to the GFS and pushing the precipitation to the southeast
of the area by Tuesday night.

Both GFS/ECMWF are now developing a strong ridge out west later in
the upcoming week which will eventually allow for a strong upper
level jet to develop out of the northwest from Canada and dig a
cold air mass into the area. Stay tuned for further details as
this moves into our forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Widespread stratus will remain in place across the region through
morning. A dip down to MVFR is expected later tonight at all sites
(it has already occurred at JLN), with at least some potential for
periods of IFR. Will also need to watch fog potential. With clouds
in place, expect vis to remain within the 2-4 SM range, though
lower values can`t be ruled out, especially if clouds were to
clear earlier than expected.

Clouds and any visibility restrictions should lift by mid morning
Friday, with VFR expected thereafter.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Record high temperatures late this week into the weekend.

          10/24      10/25      10/26
          Fri.       Sat.       Sun.

SGF      84/1891    85/1939    86/1891
JLN      88/2003    87/1944    87/1950
UNO      84/1985    83/1952    84/1950
VIH      81/2012    83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Boxell
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Boxell
CLIMATE...Lindenberg






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