Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 280254 AAA
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Springfield MO
854 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 838 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Forecast remains largely on track for this evening. 00Z KSGF
sounding showed about 139j/kg of MU cape however there is a
substantial cap around 650mb. 00Z Norman sounding showed an
impressive mid level dry layer and inversion with about 2000MU
cape above. This airmass was streaming towards the area and
therefore casts some questions as to how widespread precip will
be tonight. While a few scattered showers have developed around
the SGF metro as of this writing, expect that for the most part
coverage wont be particularly widespread. HRRR and other models
are generally in agreement that locations east of US Highway 65
and especially areas across south central Missouri have the best
chance of seeing a shower/storm tonight.

As far as severe potential, there is enough instability and shear
combo to warrant a limited threat of an isolated large hail to
quarter size however thinking this would be limited to areas
across far south central Missouri.

Stratus will continue to spread north into the area ahead of an
approaching warm front. We have inserted some patchy fog overnight
especially in south central missouri. CLoud cover will keep temps
mild overnight especially from Springfield west with readings
remaining near 60 overnight.

Lastly, forecast model data will continue to be looked at
overnight for the severe potential on Tuesday. Quick glance at
data from the 00z NAM shows a majority of the day Tuesday dry with
storm chances increasing after dark Tuesday evening. Stay tuned.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1048 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Southeast winds will help temperatures this afternoon climb into
lower to middle 60s for most of the Ozarks. An area of showers
and a few storms were moving to the northeast out of Oklahoma in
an area of isentropic lift and generally with the surface to mid
level flow.

A few storms are expected to move across the region this
afternoon, however, a fairly strong cap should keep any
convection in check. With MUCAPE values this afternoon from 150
to 500 j/kg some areas across extreme southwestern Missouri may
hear some thunder but it will be the exception rather than the
rule.

The surface winds will shift from the southeast to the southwest
through this evening and overnight. Showers and a few rumbles of
thunder will continue but coverage should be scattered in nature.
Enough instability may develop late this evening into tonight for
a penny to quarter size hail risk with a few of the strongest
storms across south central MO.

The continued southerly flow and shift to southwesterly flow at
the surface will aid in bringing low and mid level moisture into
the region by Tuesday morning. The southwesterly flow at the
surface and aloft will maximize by overnight and through Tuesday
morning as surface low pressure moves across the plains and moves
a cold front towards the region.

Models have been in good agreement with the exception of the NAM,
in developing modest instability across the region with CAPE
values by Tuesday afternoon in the 900-1600 j/kg range. In
addition, shear will be very strong with 60-80kts showing up
during the afternoon focused along and south of I-44. Models have
continued to show a CAP, but it becomes pretty weak during the
afternoon after/around 21z with less than 10j/kg of CINH noted
across the Ozarks.

This works in favor of the development of strong to severe storms
during the afternoon. One concern would be the very strong shear,
overcoming the modest instability and shearing the tops off of
the storms as they develop. While this may occur, the concern
remains that strong winds and even a tornado may be possible with
storms that can develop and take advantage of the instability and
shear.

The cold front will make its push through the region Tuesday
evening. Storms will remain along the front as it makes its way
eastward, though the CAP looks to strengthen a bit as the front
moves through. The frontal forcing will most likely be capable of
overcoming the increasing CINH, but instability will be on the
wane as well.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1048 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

The cold front will move through the region Tuesday night and be
well west of the Ozarks by sunrise Wednesday morning. A few
lingering post frontal showers may be exiting the southeastern
Ozarks after sun up, but will quickly move east of the region.

High pressure will filter into the area through the day Wednesday
with temperatures only climbing into the 50s during the
afternoon. With several additional rounds of high pressure
expected through the end of the week and into the weekend, the
region will remain dry with temperatures climbing back into the
60s to near 70 by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 527 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

A gradual lowering of ceilings will occur Tonight as moisture
increases from the south. MVFR ceilings are likely at BBG by mid
to late evening and then SGF and JLN after 03z. Still some
question as to exact timing of the stratus. A brief period of IFR
is even possible. Surface winds will remain gusty out of the
south tonight with some low level wind shear possible at BBG
overnight.

A few showers and storms will likely come close to the BBG airport
late tonight and have put in VCTS for now. Confidence is low
however there is some patchy fog potential at JLN by morning. A
brief increase in ceilings may occur during the day Tuesday before
more showers and storms arrive.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Burchfield
SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Burchfield


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