Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 301929
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
229 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

...FREEZE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)

An area of showers and isolated thunderstorms moved across the
Ozarks Region today in advance of an approaching cold front. All
rainfall is expected to exit east this afternoon, setting up sunny
and dry weather the rest of the afternoon.

The approaching front will bring a cold Canadian airmass over much
of the nation`s mid section, causing temperatures to fall.

Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s to the lower 40s.
Despite sunshine on Friday, highs will struggle to warm out of the
40s due to strong cold air advection.

By Friday night into early Saturday morning, a hard freeze will
occur, ending the 2014 growing season for the entire area.
Temperatures will fall into the low to mid 20s. Please note that a
Freeze Warning has been posted for the Friday night and Saturday
morning period.

Southerly breezes will quickly return by mid day Saturday setting
up our next warming trend.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)

Fair weather is expected on Sunday as southerly winds promote
warmer temperatures. This flow will also force Gulf moisture back
into the Ozarks, setting the stage for our next episode of showers
and thunderstorms.

Both the GFS and the ECMWF have consistently suggested the gradual
approach of a storm system early in the week, that would provide
the region with widespread rainfall, particularly Monday into
Wednesday.

This storm system will be structured in a positively tilted fashion,
which is ideal for decent rainfall amounts, especially considering
it`s slow progression.

We think rain amounts Monday through Wednesday will range from one
to three inches. Again with the rain becoming very widespread, we
have decided to mention a limited risk for flooding in our
Hazardous Weather Outlook.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Shortwave was pushing through the area this morning with scattered
showers/isolated thunder pushing through and was now along and
south of the interstate 44 corridor. These showers were occurring
from some mid level cloud cover and flight conditions have
remained in VFR. Winds behind the shortwave will shift around to
the southwest and then west during the afternoon/evening with some
gusty winds expected and the cloud cover should clear. During the
evening and overnight, winds will become out of the northwest. Low
level wind shear will occur overnight as strong cold air advection
takes place across the area with a strong Canadian high pressure
system begins to build into the area. Should remain in VFR
conditions through the period. Winds will begin to mix to the
ground during the daytime Friday with gusts up to 25 kts expected.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM Friday to 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM Friday to 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Lindenberg






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