Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 160513

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1113 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

...06z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)

It was a quiet and mild day over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures were in the 50s under sunny skies
and light winds.

Due to a dry airmass in place, temperatures will fall into the 30s
tonight as west northwest breezes persist.

For tomorrow, fire weather will be the primary focus as dry air
mixes with gusty west southwest winds. A warming trend is
expected with highs reaching well into the 60s. Skies will remain

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)

Phenomenal February weather is expected through the entire weekend
as an upper level mean ridge of high pressure slowly progresses
across the nation`s midsection. Look for temperatures to reach the
70s on an afternoon basis from Friday through Monday.

No precipitation is expected through Sunday night, however, by
Monday, rain chances could be on the increase.

There is a signal that supports the approach of an upper level
trough early next work week that would interact with increasing
Gulf moisture.

It is yet to be determined if thunderstorms will be possible, but
certainly some rain could spread into southern Missouri,
particularly Monday and Tuesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1111 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

VFR will continue tonight and tomorrow. Mostly clear skies through
the next 24 hours. Light southwesterly winds tonight will become
breezy and gusty late Thursday morning through the afternoon up to
20 knots.



A Fire Weather Watch has been posted for portions of extreme
southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks for Thursday.

Gusty southwest winds will combine with a dry airmass to create
ideal conditions for a rapid spread of ignited wildland fires on

Vegetation and fuels are extremely dry due to the developing
drought conditions across the area.

Agencies with fire weather interests should monitor later
forecasts for a possible upgrade to a Red Flag Warning.


Issued at 518 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

We will be in range for more record high temperatures possibly
this weekend.

Record Highs/YearFeb 17th Feb 18thFeb 19th
Springfield 73/191174/194871/2004
West Plains 77/1986 77/198673/1981


MO...Fire Weather Watch from 10 AM CST Thursday through Thursday
     afternoon for MOZ055>058-066>071-077>081-088>091-093-094.

KS...Fire Weather Watch from 10 AM CST Thursday through Thursday
     afternoon for KSZ073-097-101.



LONG TERM...Cramer
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