Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
FXUS63 KSGF 192050 AAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
250 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 249 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014
A rather nice day considering the past week, with plenty of sun
and afternoon high temperatures ranging from the low/mid 40s
across central Missouri to mid 50s across far southern Missouri. A
cold front has moved through the area and the incoming colder
airmass is now just entering the northwest portion of the forecast
Tonight, surface high pressure will move over the area. The
combination of light winds and a mainly clear sky will result in
lows in the upper teens to lower 20s. This high will move to the
east on Thursday and southerly winds will gradually return.
Temperatures will be a bit cooler than today`s readings with
highs mainly in the 40s. Mid/high level clouds will be on the
increase during the afternoon.
Thursday night into Friday will feature increasing low level
southerly flow and gradual moisture return. Still concerned at a
brief period of light freezing drizzle for areas along/northeast
of Fort Scott, KS to West Plains, MO. Confidence in having enough
moisture available to produce this freezing drizzle is still low,
so this will be something to continue to watch as we head into
tomorrow. If this freezing drizzle does develop, any accumulation
would be quite light, affecting mainly bridges/elevated surfaces.
Warm advection will continue through Friday and Friday night.
Scattered showers will develop over the area during this time
frame, with a few rumbles of thunder possible by Friday night.
Temperatures will gradually warm. The pace of warming will be
slowest across the eastern Ozarks and south central Missouri,
much quicker across western portions of the area. Rainfall
accumulations into Friday night will be scattered and on the light
side as much of the moisture advection will go to moistening the
rather dry airmass in place.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014
Temperatures will continue to slowly rise on Saturday thanks to
southerly winds bringing in a moist and warmer airmass from the
Gulf of Mexico region. An upper level trough will move across the
southwestern U.S. and eject out across the south central U.S. by
Saturday. This will pick up both Pacific and Gulf of Mexico
moisture. This trough will be negatively tilted as it moves
northeastward in the Mississippi Valley Region. It will bring
soaking rainfall to the area with 1 to 2 inches likely. There will
just enough elevated instability for some thunder but no strong
convection expected. The highest and more widespread rain chances
will be Saturday night into early on Sunday.
This system begins to wrap up and surface low pressure deepen as
it moves across the Midwest. It will turn breezy late on Sunday.
After a relatively mild weekend...temperatures will begin to drop
Sunday night on the back side of the exiting low pressure. Showers
will slowly end from southwest to northeast Sunday night as the
low pressure center moves away. There is a small potential for a
few wet snow flakes to mix in late Sunday night into very early
Monday morning...indicated by the 12z ECMWF. No accumulation is
expected because temperatures will be in the middle to upper 30s.
A deep trough develops on Monday across the central U.S. This
means colder temperatures for early next week with below average
weather with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s. The forecast
looks dry through the middle of next week.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1121 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014
VFR conditions will be the rule over the 24 hours and beyond. Mid
level deck across northern Missouri will scatter out as it moves
into the area this afternoon, with clear skies expected tonight.
High pressure will move over the area tonight and northwest winds
will become calm, eventually shifting to southeasterly late