Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 291954

254 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015

The upper level trough that was moving to the west and brought
showers to the eastern Ozarks today will begin to shift back to
the east as the upper level flow catches it and moves it east.
This will occur as a cold front approaches the region and moves
through the area into tomorrow. A few showers or and a rumble of
thunder may occur through just after midnight but will quickly
diminish behind the from.

Low stratus is expected behind the front as a cold fall like
Canadian air mass filters into the Ozarks for tomorrow morning
and through tomorrow. As a result, high temperatures tomorrow are
only expected to rise into the lower 70s even after the low
overnight stratus burns off and the comes out for tomorrow

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015

The forecast for the remainder of the week will feature cooler,
more fall like weather as the upper level pattern transitions to
northwest flow aloft and additional Canadian air filters south
across the plains and into the Ozarks. This will allow afternoon
temperatures to only climb into the 60s for most areas with
overnight lows falling into the middle to upper 40s.

A short wave upper level ridge will move over the area late in
the day Saturday as a vigorous upper level low moves into the
northwestern states towards the central plains. The ridge will
lose out to the Canadian air mass keeping temperatures in the 60s
through the weekend.

The upper level low will move very slowly towards the plains with
a bit of a warming trend expected to start next week before the
low finally begins to move into the plains by the middle of next
week and bring the first good chance of rain to the Ozarks since
the beginning of September.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015

VFR conditions will persist for the next 6 to 12 hours. However,
this will rapidly change as we head into the overnight hours. A
cold front will move through the region and an area of stratus
will develop behind this boundary. The good news is this area of
stratus appears to be progressive, moving through the area in
about a 12 hour time frame. The bad news is that IFR (SGF/JLN)
and even LIFR (BBG) are expected. Time frame most prone is 07z to
15z. Clearing will be gradual on Wednesday with northerly winds
becoming gusty during the afternoon.




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