Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 131129
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
629 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 115 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017

The remnants of Irma will continue to move northeast across the
Ohio Valley region today. We will see a smattering of high clouds
around the back side of these remnants, but clouds will not be as
thick and widespread as Tuesday. A light morning shower will
still be possible across the eastern Ozarks.

We should then see a decent clearing trend from this afternoon
into this evening. Temperatures today should be about five degrees
warmer than what we saw on Tuesday due to more in the way of
sunshine. Highs should range from the middle and upper 70s across
the eastern Ozarks, to the middle 80s along and west of the I-49
corridor. Lows tonight will again fall into the middle to upper
50s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 115 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017

A southwesterly flow aloft will develop across the region from
later Thursday into at least the weekend. This will result in
temperatures warming to above normal values with highs in the
middle to upper 80s.

An outside shot for a thunderstorm remains from late Friday night
into Saturday morning over west-central Missouri as the eastern
periphery of a broad low level jet stream sets up across the area.
A better shot for showers and thunderstorms is still on track for
later Saturday night into Sunday as global models still indicate a
front trying to push south into the central Plains and northern
Missouri.

Global models then seem to be struggling a bit regarding
consistency for early next week. The GFS has come in with a more
amplified southwesterly flow aloft across the central U.S. versus
previous runs. The GFS five wave charts also support the more
amplified pattern. Even the ECMWF model is trending this way. We
may therefore hang onto the above normal temperatures along with
the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017

Some MVFR ceilings have spread into the eastern Ozarks early this
morning, while mid and high clouds were found over the TAF sites.
As the remnants of Irma lift northeast away from the area today,
high pressure will traverse across the region through tonight.
Expect clearing skies at the TAF sites today with VFR flight
conditions through 12Z THursday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Raberding



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