Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 021745

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
1145 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CST TUE FEB 02 2016

Large storm system affecting the nation`s mid section is gearing
up at this hour. Deepening low pressure over south central Kansas
is cranking up the wind machine, with southeast winds between 15
and 25 mph and gusts in excess of 35 mph. Waves of showers and
embedded thunder continue to develop across the region, with the
most organized activity on the nose of the incoming dry slot
poised to enter southwest portions of the outlook area within the
hour. Given increasing cloud cover and stiff winds, temperatures
have been quite mild for this time of year with readings generally
in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Expectations for the rest of the overnight hours into the daylight
hours of Tuesday morning feature increasing rain chances. The
better coverage will be coincident with this incoming shortwave
with bands of showers and storms spreading into the region from
southwest to northeast. This will result in a wet commute for many
this morning. While confidence in observing rainfall is high, it
should be noted that this will be a quick hit rainfall. Activity
will end from west to east from sunrise through midday. The
potential for strong storms remains low. While shear is high, CAPE
is lacking (at best 500 J/kg as the shortwave moves over the
area). That said, there are strong winds just off of the surface
and a few line segments may be capable of tapping into that
momentum to produce a localized damaging wind gust.

The bigger story of the day will be in the incoming dry slot and
associated gusty winds and dry airmass. Temperatures will be
rather tricky today. If this past weekend in any indication, the
wisest course of action is to side with the warmest guidance and a
degree or two given deep mixing, strong southwest winds and a dry
airmass. Winds will be strong enough this afternoon to support a
wind advisory. Both sustained winds in excess of 30mph and gusts
around 45mph are possible.

Another issue worth noting is that we will approach red flag
conditions. At this time, forecast minimum relative humidity
values this afternoon look to range between 25 and 35 percent,
which does not support criteria. That said, open burning should
not be attempted today as fires will quickly escape control given
the strong, gusty winds and cured grasses.

Wind speeds will gradually relax heading into this evening with a
cooler airmass entering from the northwest. A few showers/flurries
will be possible across central Missouri overnight as temperatures
drop to the around the freezing mark.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 310 AM CST TUE FEB 02 2016

Northwest flow aloft will briefly take control of our weather
regime Wednesday and Thursday, with below average temperatures
expected. Shortwave ridging is favored Friday into the weekend,
which will allow for the return of above average temperatures.
Little to no rain is expected through this weekend.

Heading into next week, the medium range models and ensembles are
in solid agreement in delivering a surge of cold air into the
eastern half of the CONUS. Expect a return to well below average
temperatures and only minor (fleeting) chances for precipitation.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM CST TUE FEB 02 2016

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Strong low pressure will pass north
of the area with a trailing cold front moving through. Strong
sw winds will occur today, then gradually veer to the wnw tonight
while diminishing somewhat. Post frontal lower clouds are
expected to spread in and will continue the mention of mvfr
ceilings at all sites late in the taf period.


Issued at 1130 AM CST TUE FEB 02 2016

A Red Flag Warning is in effect for counties along and west of MO
Hwy 13.

Strong sw winds and dry air spreading into the area from OK will
lead to an increased threat for accidental outdoor fire ignitions and
rapid spread. The mixing down of dry air will be the key for low
sfc humidity values this afternoon. The pressure gradient will
increase as low pressure over northern KS tracks east-northeast.
The low RH/high wind combination will be fairly brief this
afternoon over the western cwfa. Fire starts in recent days
indicate fuels are already dry and the limited rain we had earlier
this morning will not greatly affect grassland fuels.

Colder air will filter in for the west late today and tonight with
gradually diminishing winds.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ066-067-

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ066>068-077>079-

KS...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ073-097-101.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ073-097-101.



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