Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 181729
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1129 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

...FORECAST AND 18Z AVIATION UPDATE...

Issued at 1122 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

Issued a Wind Advisory for the northwest 1/3 of the area as winds
were gusting to near 45mph with sustained winds near 30mph at SGF.
This was in response to an increasing pressure gradient and
favorable funneling southeast winds here at SGF. While cloud cover
will be in and out today, 850mb winds increase over the area by
later afternoon therefore it will remain a windy day. With the
southeast winds and some mixing, dewpoints will be slow to rise
therefore RH values will drop into the 30-40% range therefore
elevated fire weather conditions will occur today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
Issued at 333 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

Patchy dense fog will remain possible early this morning across
south central Missouri, mainly near lakes and in river valleys.
Winds will increase this morning and should help to dissipate any
fog by mid morning.

Gusty southerly winds will occur today ushering in a warmer air
mass. Highs this afternoon will top out in the upper 50s to the
lower 60s. Wind gust up to 35 mph will occur at times. A dry air
mass is in place and when combined with the gusty winds will lead
to an elevated fire weather risk across much of the area this
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 333 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

An upper level trough will dig south across the west coast today
into Monday then start to slowly spread east into the middle of
the week. This will leave the region in an upper level southwest
flow. Moisture will start to increase across the area as lift
spreads northeast into the region ahead of the trough. This will
result in scattered showers occurring at times from tonight into
Monday night. There should be just enough instability for a few
storms to occur at times, but no severe weather is expected.

As the upper level trough pushes east a cold front will slide
southeast into the area Tuesday into Wednesday. Lift from the
trough combined with the front will lead to more widespread
rainfall developing and spreading slowly through the area with the
front. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3" with locally heavier amounts
are possible through Tuesday night. The heaviest rainfall will
occur across south central Missouri with the lesser amounts across
east central Kansas. There are still some slight timing
differences in the models, but the models continue to all show a
similar signal for widespread rain Tuesday into early Wednesday.
This rainfall could lead to a limited flooding risk developing
across the region Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Precipitation will occur along and behind the front. As colder air
spreads in behind the front the rain should change to a wintry
mix. There are still questions on how tight the temperatures
gradient and depth of the cold air will be behind the front, which
will affect preciptiation types, timing, location, and amounts.

Very warm conditions will occur ahead of the front as highs in
the 70s are expected Monday and south of the front moving through
the area on Tuesday. Behind the front Highs in the 30s are
expected Wednesday with readings in the 40s on Thursday. There
could be a few showers around Wednesday and Thursday but overall
there should be a little break in the rain during these days.

Another round of rainfall is then possible Friday into next
weekend as another upper level trough pushes towards the region.
Models are trending slower with this round from previous runs but
they kept the region in a southwest flow pattern bringing
additional more widespread rain chances to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1122 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

VFR conditions expected for the afternoon and early evening with
just some high clouds moving through. Gusty south winds will
continue Today with a few 40kt surface gusts possible, especially
at SGF. Clouds will thicken tonight and ceilings will drop to MVFR
and potentially IFR by tomorrow morning with rain moving in. There
will be potential for an isolated thunderstorm however confidence
is too low to put into TAFs. Low level wind shear is likely
overnight at all TAF sites.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ066-067-077>079-
     088>090-094.

KS...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Burchfield
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Burchfield


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