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000
FXUS63 KSGF 221149
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
649 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017

High pressure responsible for the amazing weather yesterday was
starting to slide east of the region. Surface flow has become
southerly this morning. Today will be warmer, however, clouds will
be on the increase as our next weather system (cold front and
parent upper level short wave) begins to take shape.

Showers will begin to develop across portions of west central
Missouri and southeast Kansas later this afternoon/evening. This
activity should be scattered in nature. Although instability is
expected to be fairly weak with this system, can`t rule out an
embedded clap of thunder or two.

Although rain will be possible through the day on Tuesday and even
into the evening hours, it will not rain the entire time. Coverage
will remain quite scattered and again thunder chances look low.
The Canadian front should slide through the region Tuesday
evening/overnight as an upper level low pressure closes off across
the cornbelt, amplifying the trough kicking the front southward.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017

The upper low is forecast to settle across central Missouri
Wednesday afternoon. This will likely lead to continued cloudiness
and perhaps additional shower activity. This low should swiftly
slide southeastward into Georgia by Thursday. In it`s wake, upper
level ridging will take place across far southeast Kansas and
southwest Missouri. Temperatures on Wednesday will be cool with
highs struggling to reach the lower to middle 60s. With the upper
level riding on Thursday temperatures should rise back well into
the 70s as southerly flow bring in warmer and slightly more moist
air.

A long wave will be situated across the Rockies, which Globals
amplify late week and into the weekend. As this occurs, the upper
level flow will back to a more southwesterly flow aloft. A frontal
boundary is forecast to stall parallel to the upper flow to our
north and west. With impulses riding northeast along the flow,
think that chances for waves of showers and storms will be there.
Can`t rule out some strong storms somewhere over the broader
region, however, synoptic and mesoscale features are still
questionable such as timing of mid level jet dynamics and boundary
layer moisture quality behind the midweek system. There is even
some differences between the GFS and ECMWF in terms where the
surface boundary to the north sets up and when it moves south
toward the Gulf state (ECM is a bit more progressive as of now).

Regardless, going into Memorial Day weekend the weather in general
should be unsettled at times. Eventually, northwesterly flow is
forecast to set up across our region, which suggests dry and
cooler conditions (similar to midweek this week) early next week
across our region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A sfc cold front will approach the area from
the northwest reaching western MO (KJLN) by the end of the taf
period. Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms are expected
late in the taf period with somewhat better overall rain coverage
west and north of the taf sites through 12z. Tafs will be VFR for
the most part, but lower MVFR ceilings are expected late at KSGF
and KJLN as the front nears.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Frye
LONG TERM...Frye
AVIATION...DSA