Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 200822
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
222 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 222 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

Upper pattern is undergoing some changes and will see the trough
which has been bringing us the cold air for over a week now
continue to shift east as ridging out west nudges eastward.

With the pattern change will also come warmer temperatures and
decent chances for showers/thunderstorms over the weekend and this
will be the main forecast focus with this forecast package.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 222 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

Warmer air will begin to work back into the area from the
west/southwest today with a more zonal upper level pattern setting
up across the area by late in the day. Cold surface high pressure
will still be over the area, with it`s main influence continuing
over our central MO counties. We could have a temperature range
from the upper 30s to around 40 in central MO to the low 50s over
the southwest corner of MO today.

We have been advertising the last couple of days the potential of
some freezing rain/drizzle late tonight into Friday morning and
while this has not changed, it does appear that any measurable
precipitation will hold off until Friday after 6 AM and any
freezing type precipitation would mainly affect elevated surfaces.
Even at that, warmer air will begin to quickly move northeast
into the area Friday morning and should change precipitation over
quickly to all rain as temperatures rise above freezing. However,
low level moisture will be quick to lift north into the area
tonight with some isentropic lifting taking place after midnight,
so still can`t rule out the drizzle/freezing drizzle potential
late tonight.


.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 222 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

Temperatures should quickly rise above freezing on Friday morning
for those locations that drop below freezing tonight and any
ongoing precipitation will become all rain/drizzle. The best
chance of measurable precipitation will occur during the afternoon
Friday as a weak upper level disturbance moves through from the southwest.

A deeper southern stream trough is expected to develop Friday
night over west Texas which will bring southwest flow aloft to the
area and open up the Gulf in the lower levels across the lower and
mid Mississippi valley regions. There will probably be enough
instability for some isolated to scattered thunderstorms over
southern Missouri on Friday night.

The instability will spread north to the remainder of the area on
Saturday and Saturday night with isolated to scattered embedded
thunderstorms expected within a larger area of rainfall.
Precipitation amounts appear to be on the lighter side through the
day Saturday with the majority of the convection ahead of the main
shortwave over Texas and Oklahoma. As this shortwave begins to
lift northeast into the area Saturday night, the precipitation
chances will increase quite a bit with the best chance of heavy
rainfall. This will continue into Sunday as this southern stream
shortwave becomes embedded within a larger upper level cyclone. A
cold front with this system will eventually push through the area
late Sunday and Sunday night with colder air moving into the area
from the northwest Sunday night. Any lingering precipitation
Sunday night may mix with some light snow over northwest sections
of the CWA as temperatures drop back into the 30s.

Precipitation should clear out on Monday, but will see cold air
advection throughout the day with northwest flow on the back side
of the upper level trough. The remainder of the week looks to be
dry for now with an eventual warming trend again by the middle of
next week.




&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1118 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

Clear skies and VFR conditions will continue through Thursday
morning along with light and variable winds. Clouds will then
increase later Thursday into Thursday evening as a weak upper
level disturbance approaches from the west. Ceilings will remain
in the low-end VFR range.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Schaumann





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