Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 300757
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
257 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 241 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A slowly weakening trough is moving into western Missouri this
morning. Within the past hour or so...scattered showers and a few
rumbles of thunder have develop across southwest Missouri into
Central Missouri. This activity will continue to move eastward
this morning. The best rain chances for today will be over the
eastern Ozarks as western areas will be mainly dry today. Highest
temperatures will be out west and slightly cooler out east. Quiet
and drier weather expected tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 241 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

Sunday will be mostly hot and drier. There could be an isolated
shower or storm that pops up out to the far east but otherwise
looks good for outdoor activities areawide.

A better defined front will move into the area Monday afternoon
and night. Dynamics with this system and associated upper level
support is a little more interesting with that latest model
guidance.

Southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks will be in a right
entrance region of an upper level jet. Bulk shear will be between
40 to 50 knots. Surface temperatures should warm to around 90
ahead of the frontal boundary. MUCape values will be on the order
of 2000 to 3000 KG/J. A slight risk of severe storms looks
favorable Monday afternoon into Monday night for most of the area.
Looks like a squall line or possible MCS will be the main storm
mode and the main threat will be damaging wind gusts and large
hail.

The frontal boundary stalls out over the area Tuesday and will
continue a chance for additional convection and storms. The front
will wash out by Wednesday and rain chances go down. Will maintain
a dry and seasonable hot weather for the end of next week as it
looks like the upper level ridge of high pressure will be in
control of our weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1122 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

We have a shortwave pushing from west to east across the area
tonight with any remaining convection to the east of the forecast
terminals. Frontal boundary is still to the west but not seeing
much in the way of development along the front at this point.
Wouldn`t be surprised to see some scattered convection redevelop,
however confidence on convection hitting any of the terminal
locations is fairly low so will hold off on putting in TAFS for
the 06z issuance at this time. Expecting VFR conditions through
the period.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg






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