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000
FXUS63 KSGF 041121
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
521 AM CST Wed Dec 4 2013

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 205 AM CST WED DEC 4 2013

Some areas of dense fog were affecting parts of the Missouri
Ozarks into extreme southeast Kansas again tonight, but not nearly
as widespread as the past three nights. A dense fog advisory
remains in effect for much of the area until 16z.

Surface low pressure was located over the southern Plains with a
cold front pushing into southeast Kansas and west central Missouri
early this morning. Temperatures remain quite mild over the area
ahead of the front with readings in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

A strong upper level low pressure system continues to dig over the
Rockies with very strong upper level jet wind speeds of 140+ kts
just south of the low and another jet streak digging on the
western side of the low.

Wintry precipitation, type and amounts will be the main forecast
focus with this forecast package, along with an Arctic air mass
moving into the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 205 AM CST WED DEC 4 2013

Not expecting much in the way of precipitation in the short term
period covering today and tonight. The cold front is expected to
push through the area today. Mild conditions are expected ahead of
the front with 50s and 60s generally over the eastern half of the
area. Temperatures will drop behind the front however, with
readings possibly into the upper 30s by late in the afternoon over
parts of extreme southeast Kansas.

Tonight, the colder air will continue to push into the area at the
surface with temperatures dropping below freezing for all but
south central Missouri. Western portions of the CWA should dip
into the mid 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 205 AM CST WED DEC 4 2013

Strong upper level jet energy will continue to track across the
region which will produce a tremendous amount of lift across the
area from midday Thursday through Friday morning. Models continue
the trend from the 12z runs of delaying the onset of precipitation
until later in the morning Thursday, starting over southern
Missouri and spreading northward through the morning. The warm
nose of air will still be in question over the area...especially
from the I-44 corridor and points southeast during the day
Thursday. Gradually, the warm nose will weaken as time progresses
into Thursday afternoon and evening which will change the
precipitation type throughout the day. Most locations north of the
Interstate 44 corridor can expect all snow, but the lighter
precipitation totals will occur the further northwest you go in
our CWA. Along the I-44 corridor, precipitation will most likely
begin as freezing rain, changing over to a sleet/snow mix, and
then all snow by late afternoon. Further southeast over south
central Missouri, it will start off as rain, then freezing rain,
sleet and eventually all snow during the evening Thursday.

Present indications are for roughly 3 to 5 inches of sleet/snow along
the I-44 corridor, with 1 to 3 inches of snow over west central
Missouri, and 1 to 3 inches of snow over south central Missouri.

For ice, we are not expecting any north of the interstate 44
corridor, with 0.01 to 0.10 of an inch along and just south of the
I44 corridor and 0.10 to 0.20 possible over parts of south central Missouri.
While forecast snow and ice totals are not expected to reach
warning criteria with either individual precipitation type, the
combination of snow and ice will have significant impacts over far
southern Missouri, and we will be issuing a winter storm watch for
parts of far southern Missouri with this forecast package.

Should the thermal profiles change, the snow/ice amounts would
likely change as well. The first round of winter weather should
come to an end late Friday, with Arctic air moving into the area
on Friday night. Temperatures will likely dip into the single
digits with wind chill values in the single digits below zero
range on Friday night.

The main upper level trough will begin to swing east into the
Plains Saturday night and Sunday, with a surface low tracking from
the Western Gulf into the Tennessee and Ohio Valley regions on
Sunday. An additional inch or two of snow will be possible from
late Saturday night into Sunday as this occurs.

It will remain very cold into the middle of next week as the
Arctic air mass remains in place. Temperatures will likely remain
below freezing for highs with lows dipping into the single digits
and teens.

&&

.AVIATION...

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports will
need to monitor for low visibilities due to fog this morning.
There are also patches of low stratus hovering well within IFR
levels.

Eventually the low ceilings and visibilities will improve this
morning, offering mostly VFR conditions through the rest of this
afternoon.

Look for a cold front to surge into the southwest Missouri
airports. This front will cause a wind shift to the north
northwest this afternoon.

A winter storm will approach the Ozarks Thursday. Pilots should
expect snow and sleet accumulations with this system. Some
freezing rain will be possible at the Joplin airport.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM CST this morning FOR MOZ055-
     066>068-077>083-088>098-101>106.

     WINTER STORM WATCH from Thursday morning through Friday
     afternoon FOR MOZ095>098-101>106.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM CST this morning FOR KSZ073-097-
     101.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Cramer