Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 180520
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1220 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire weather conditions will continue to occur each
  day during the late morning into the early evening hours
  through Tuesday.

- Sub freezing temperatures are forecast for tonight into
  Monday morning and again Monday night into Tuesday morning.

- Rain chances return late Wednesday into Thursday night.
  Rainfall amounts will overall be light and some locations may
  remain dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Highs are currently in the 50s across the area this afternoon
with northerly winds gusting up to 20 to 25 mph at times, with
a few places west of Highway 65 gusting up to 30 mph at times.
A dry air mas is also in place across the region this afternoon
and humidity values in the 25 to 35 percent range will occur
late this afternoon into early this evening. Elevated fire
weather conditions will continue to occur across the region into
early this evening due to the dry conditions and gusty winds.
Winds will start to weaken by the mid evening hours.

Later this evening into tonight an upper level trough will move
south through the region and a secondary cold front will move
south through the area tonight. An area of surface high pressure
moves over the region tonight into Monday morning behind the
front and trough. A colder air mass will move south as lows
drop into the middle to upper 20s tonight. This will result in
a hard freeze for any temperature sensitive vegetation already
growing outdoors.

The dry and cool air mass will remain in place on Monday as
highs only warm into the 40s. Afternoon humidity values will
drop into the 20 to 30 percent Monday as a dry air mass remains
over the region. The area of surface high pressure will move
off to the south on Monday afternoon and northwesterly wind
gusts up to 20 to 25 mph will occur. Elevated fire weather
conditions will once again develop across the region on Monday
as the dry conditions and gusty winds combined.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

The upper level trough will move off to the southeast and a
warmer air mass will start to move east into the area on
Tuesday. Lows will range from the lower 30s across
southeastern Kansas to the middle/upper 20s across south central
Missouri Monday night into Tuesday morning. Highs will warm
into the 60s on Tuesday, a drier air mass will remain in place
as afternoon humidity values of 25 to 30 percent are expected
again. Gusty west to southwesterly winds will develop Tuesday as
the pressure gradient tightens some between surface high
pressure south of the region and surface low pressure over the
Great Lakes region. Elevated to locally significant fire weather
conditions will once again develop on across the area on
Tuesday.

The ensemble model members there show an upper level shortwave
moving east through the region from later Wednesday into Friday
morning. There are still some differences between the models on
the exact track and timing of the system and also with the
strength. Some models keep a weak wave moving through Wednesday
night into Thursday as other are a little deeper with the trough
and moves it through slower. The trough will bring some rain
chances to the area and maybe a few non severe thunderstorms to
southern Missouri. Have some rain chances going from late
Wednesday afternoon through early Friday, to account for timing
differences in the models, but not expecting a washout and rain
occurring during this entire period. Overall the better rain
chances will be further to the south as drier air mass will
remains in the north. Some locations could remain dry with this
system especially further to the north. Rainfall amounts will
overall be on the light side for those that receive rain.

Temperatures will warm into the 60s Wednesday through Saturday
with lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

For the 06z TAFS, VFR conditions are expected through the period
as surface high pressure continues to push into the region. Some
gusty northerly winds are expected this morning into the
afternoon before diminishing during the evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Lindenberg


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