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000
FXUS63 KSGF 300431
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1131 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)

Another beautiful day over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures ranged from the upper 70s to the
lower 80s.

A few sprinkles were observed in southeast Kansas, however, this
activity had dissipated early this afternoon.

For tonight, cooler than normal temperatures are expected with
lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s. The warmer readings will
occur out toward Joplin and Pittsburg, as cloud cover increases
from the west.

As we approach the Wednesday morning hours, a band of rain will
likely begin to affect locations southwest of a line from Girard
Kansas to Branson Missouri. While we do have lower precipitation
chanes as far north as Springfield and Lake of the Ozarks, we are
much more confident in rain affecting areas closer to the Oklahoma
and Arkansas border.

Temperatures tomorrow will once again remain cool for the time of
year, with highs only in the low 70s near Neosho and Pineville, to
the lower 80s up toward central Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)

Rain chances will continue across far southern Missouri heading
into Wednesday night and Thursday.

A gradual warm up along with dry weather is expected from Thursday
into early next week. Northwest flow will persist across the
nation`s mid section with small height rises with time. Eventually
afternoon highs will return to near normal, with readings in the
middle and upper 80s by Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday.

Models suggest that better rain chances will occur toward the
middle and end of next week as a storm system and frontal boundary
approaches from the northwest. However, this is beyond our 7 day
forecast period.

Have a great afternoon !

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1127 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

An upper level disturbance embedded within the northwest flow
aloft will track out of the Rockies and to our southwest bringing
quite a bit of rain to parts of Kansas and Oklahoma. Our area will
be on the northeastern section of the rain band, but our lower
levels will remain dry with surfae high pressure in place. Mid
level cloudiness will increase over the next 24 hour period and
could see some light rain or sprinkles develop by morning. Our
best chance for anything will be at JLN which will be closer to
the heavier rain band to the southwest. Generally expecting VFR
conditions through the period, but may see some MVFR at JLN by
late Wednesday afternoon into the evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Lindenberg