335
FXUS63 KSGF 111937
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
237 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a Marginal (1 of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms
  capable of producing damaging winds up to 60 mph after 9 PM
  this evening, generally northwest of a Pittsburg, KS to Osage
  Beach line.

- Slow-moving and/or repeated storms will be capable of
  producing locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding tonight
  through Sunday.

- There is also a Marginal risk for severe weather on Saturday
  and Sunday. Wind gusts up to 60 mph will be the primary
  hazard, with hail up to the size of quarters being a secondary
  risk.

- Active summertime pattern continues next week with daily
  afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 237 PM CDT Fri Jul
11 2025

A cumulus field has expanded across eastern and south-central
Missouri this afternoon, with elevated storms across portions of
Iowa associated with a surface front. Aloft, a positively tilted shortwave
trough axis was centered over eastern Nebraska and Kansas.

Although there is a lack of forcing, a lack of inhibition has
also allow for a few showers and storms to develop across
portions of the eastern Ozarks and south- central Missouri this
afternoon. Point soundings indicate some dry air above 650 mb,
so these updrafts may struggle to get overly tall.

Moderate to strong destabilization will allow for storm
intensification across Iowa and northern Missouri throughout the
afternoon, likely building south along the aforementioned cold
front. Possible upscale growth into a more linear system or at
least linear segments will have to be monitored. Forward
propagating vectors would bring convection into our central
Missouri counties around 9-10 pm this evening. While this
activity will be moving into a more stable environment, a
strengthening 35-40 kt low-level jet may aid in storm
organization, at least for a while. CAMs are actually in
somewhat decent agreement regarding the longevity of this
activity, with HRRR and MPAS models suggesting diminishing
intensity after it treks through a tier to two of counties into
our CWA. Of course, models often struggle with overnight
convection, so near-term mesoanalysis will likely be needed to
adequately assess the threat. If storms do indeed organize into
a linear system, damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat.
The Storm Prediction Center has maintained the Marginal (1 of 5)
risk for damaging winds northwest of a line roughly from
Pittsburg, KS to Osage Beach. Given the possibility of training
storms, locally heavy rainfall will be possible. Our current QPF
ranges from a widespread 0.10 to 0.75 inches across the area,
but the HREF max supports an outside shot of very localized
amounts up to 3-4 inches as a reasonable worst-case scenario.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 237 PM CDT
Fri Jul 11 2025

Saturday-Sunday:
The evolution of tonight`s convection will at least partially
influence Saturday`s thunderstorm outlook, as some leftover
showers and thunderstorms from tonight may be lingering during
the morning hours. The aforementioned cold front will shift into
central Missouri on Saturday as the upper-level shortwave ejects
into the Great Lakes region. Moisture convergence south of the
boundary and diurnal heating will allow for destabilization and
the redevelopment of additional showers and thunderstorms.

Sunday will feature a similar setup and similar hazards to
Saturday but with a developing mid-level trough/vort max across
the southern Plains. Mesoscale convective vortex formation will
be possible from preceding convection, and given the high
forecast PWATs of 1.8-2.0, the potential for heavy rainfall will
be there. Additionally, the deep layer flow will be largely
parallel to the front (which slows to a crawl over southern
Missouri), so training storms will be a concern. It remains to
be seen how long any updraft will be able to remain robust given
the weak shear, but the risk for locally heavy rainfall and
flash flooding will need to be monitored. Additional rainfall
amounts of 0.5 to 1.5 inches are possible Saturday through
Sunday mainly south of I-44, with lower amounts north of the
interstate. Strong destabilization on both Satruday and Sunday
may support at least some severe potential in the afternoons and
evenings. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined the area in
a Marginal risk both days, with the primary hazard being
downburst wind gusts up to 60 mph.

Monday-Thursday:
The remainder of the long-term forecast appears to remain fairly
active as multiple shortwaves transit the area. We have PoPs in
the grids every day next week, with the highest chances in the
afternoons and evenings each day. NBM percentile data support
highs near the climatological average through this period.


&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 625 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

VFR through the period with breezy southwesterly winds gusting
up to 25 knots by this afternoon. Winds remain elevated through
the night with a 40-60% chance of thunderstorms overnight as
the low pressure system moves into the area.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Didio
LONG TERM...Didio
AVIATION...Didio