Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 210009
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
709 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 21/00Z TAFS...VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
DESPITE AN UPPER LOW OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES HELPING TO TRIGGER
SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS WEST OF OUR TERMINAL LOCATIONS IN N CNTRL
TX/SRN OK. SPOTTY TO VERY ISOLD SHWRS HAVE CREPT INTO NE TX ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR OVER PARTS OF SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING...SOME OF
THESE SHWRS MAY AFFECT THE TYR/GGG/TXK/SHV TERMINALS AS ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS BUT EXPECT THE BEST COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO
REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF THESE LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE LOWERING CIGS WITH THE ADDITIONAL SURGE OF LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE SO LOW END VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR CIGS BUT HAVE HELD OFF
BRINGING THEM BELOW CRITERIA FOR NOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN S/SELY
INCREASING BY LATE MORNING ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD WITH SHWRS
AND TSTMS BECOMING MORE LIKELY FOR MONDAY EVENING. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH TO SHIFT EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS TO
PERSIST AT AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. CONVECTION TO DIMINISH ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER ACROSS THE INTERSTATE
30 CORRIDOR ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS EAST AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA ON
MONDAY EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE DURING...OR
SLIGHTLY AFTER...THE TIME OF HIGHEST DIUNAL DESTABILIZATION...OTHERWISE
KNOWN AS MAXIMUM HEATING. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE
GREATEST THREAT MAINLY ACROSS EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

PRECIPITATION TO EXIT THE REGION WITH THE COLD FRONT AFTER
MIDNIGHT ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS
DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO A DRY
LINE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.

TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S TO HIGHS IN THE
80S THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  59  80  62  80  59 /  20  20  50  10  10
MLU  58  81  60  80  57 /  20  10  30  20  10
DEQ  59  77  57  80  51 /  60  60  60  10  10
TXK  59  79  60  79  55 /  30  30  60  10  10
ELD  58  79  58  79  53 /  20  20  60  10  10
TYR  60  79  61  81  60 /  30  30  60  10  10
GGG  58  80  61  81  59 /  30  20  60  10  10
LFK  59  82  62  82  61 /  20  10  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19





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