Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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769
FXUS64 KSHV 192047
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
247 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Clouds diminishing across much of the region as low-level
moisture mixes with drier air aloft. Temperatures across the
region currently ranging from the mid 60s across southeast
Oklahoma to the lower 80s across portions of deep east Texas.

Surface boundary across central Texas combined with upper-trough
across west Texas to shift east overnight allowing for increasing
rain chances across east Texas and southeast Oklahoma. Locally
heavy rainfall may be possible from midnight tonight through noon
on Monday. However, overall rainfall totals will average around an
inch with isolated higher amounts of around three inches. With
flash flood guidance values averaging from 2.5 inches per hour to
4.5 inches in 6 hours, the threat of flash flooding across the
ArkLaTex remains low.

Conditions to gradually improve on Monday afternoon with showers
and isolated thunderstorms progressing east into northeast
Louisiana and south-central Arkansas before exiting the region.

Dry conditions to persist through the remainder of the forecast
period.

High temperatures to average in the 70s with lows in the 50s
through the middle of the workweek. Could see highs approaching
80 by Wednesday ahead of a dry cold front that will usher in a
reinforcement of cool air for the weekend. Expect temps ranging
from highs in the 60s to lows in the 40s through the weekend. /05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1232 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017/

AVIATION...
Fog has diminished across area, however, cigs slow to lift with
most terminals seeing MVFR cigs. KMLU has gone scattered, as may
other sites by around 20-21z. Slow movg convection from west will
reach KTYR around 20/10z and slowly move eastward to around KTXK
and KSHV btwn 20/14-18z, and finally into KELD and KMLU just after
end of 20/18z fcst period. Low clouds to redevelop, will likely
precede the onset of tstms by a few hours. se-s winds around 5 to
10 kts can be expected for the most part./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  73  59  73 /  30  70  60  30
MLU  58  77  60  72 /  10  30  70  40
DEQ  61  69  53  75 /  50  90  40  10
TXK  64  70  57  73 /  30  80  50  20
ELD  60  74  58  73 /  10  50  70  30
TYR  64  70  55  74 /  80 100  30  10
GGG  66  70  57  74 /  50  90  40  20
LFK  67  71  59  75 /  50  90  50  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05



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