Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 261156 AAA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
656 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.AVIATION...
Areas of FG have developed early this morning across Deep E
TX...and will continue to affect the LFK terminal through 14Z
before lifting by mid-morning. Elsewhere...VFR conditions will
continue through much of the 12Z TAF period...with a sct cu field
expected to develop areawide by midday. Cu cigs should
develop/persist through the afternoon across Deep E TX...with
sct convection also expected to develop mainly over Wrn Ar/SE
OK/NE TX...possibly affecting the TYR terminal after 22Z. Isolated
convection will be possible elsewhere across E TX/SW AR...with
additional convection developing over Cntrl/Ern LA/Wrn MS late in
the day...but confidence is too low to include mention in the TAFs
attm. Any convection that develops this afternoon should diminish
by mid-evening...although elevated cigs near 10kft may move into
Ern LA/AR after 06Z as a weak upper level low pressure system
drifts N along the MS River. Patchy FG may develop late in areas
where SHRA falls...with low MVFR/IFR cigs possibly forming late
near MLU...closer to the sfc reflection of the upper low. E winds
7kts or less today will become lt/vrb after 00Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 354 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Patchy fog, with visibilities reduced below a mile in some places,
has developed across portions of East Texas and Western Louisiana
south of Interstate 20. The fog should dissipate by late morning.
Convection is expected to develop along a surface trough near the
Gulf Coast and in the vicinity of a stationary front across
Oklahoma and Arkansas. The best rain chances for today should be
south of Interstate 20 and across McCurtain County in Southeast
Oklahoma. The rain chances across the northwest zones will be
largely dependent on the location of an outflow boundary from
showers and thunderstorms currently ongoing over Central Oklahoma.
The remainder of the area could still see isolated to widely
scattered diurnal convection.

Daytime high temperatures today could proven interesting. 4-inch
soil temperatures at KSHV have been in the upper 80s. If the rain
fails to develop across much of the area again today, the max
temperature forecast could be too low and some locations could see
heat index values approaching advisory criteria.

An unsettled pattern should remain the rule as an upper trough
axis stalls from the Great Lakes southward across the Mississippi
River Valley during the latter half of the work week bringing some
enhanced rain chances to the region. During the weekend and into
the beginning of next week, a weak upper low will rotate around
the southern periphery of an upper ridge, which could also bring
some higher rain chances, mainly to the eastern half of the CWA.

The lack of any surface boundaries in this pattern creates
considerable uncertainty with the rain chances. Unfocused
summertime convection is notoriously difficult to forecast. If the
rain does not develop, afternoon high temperatures will likely
warm into the upper 90s once again, and with medium range models
indicating an upper ridge building over the Central U.S. next
week, more oppressive heat could be on the way.

/09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  75  93  76 /  30  30  50  30
MLU  95  75  89  75 /  40  30  50  30
DEQ  95  74  94  74 /  40  30  50  30
TXK  95  75  94  74 /  30  30  50  30
ELD  95  74  92  74 /  30  30  50  30
TYR  95  75  94  76 /  30  10  40  20
GGG  95  75  93  76 /  30  20  50  20
LFK  94  74  92  76 /  40  30  50  30

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

15



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