Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 271132
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
632 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE 8 COUNTIES AND PARISHES FROM
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125 ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA...AND TO INCLUDE 4 PARISHES IN A NEW TORNQADO WATCH
NUMBER 126 ACROSS LOWER PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO
MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF SAN AUGUSTINE AND SABINE COUNTIES IN EAST
TEXAS AND LOWER PARTS OF TOLEDO BEND AND PARTS OF SABINE PARISH IN
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF TORNADO WATCH 125 AND INTO TORNADO WATCH 126 DURING THE
REST OF THE MORNING. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS SOUTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH
METROPLEX AND REACHED INTO EAST TEXAS NEAR TYLER AND SOUTH OF
LONGVIEW AND ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REACHED TO
THE NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW/S CENTER INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHERN KANSAS. AN OCCULDED FRONT REACHED TO THE NORTHWEST FROM
THE TEXAS LOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TO ANOTHER SMALL SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA...AND A DRY LINE EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO ACROSS WEST TEXAS INTO ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS
NEAR BROWNSVILLE.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND PROVIDING COLDER AIR INTO THE FOUR STATE
REGION. ALOFT A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WERE EJECTING AROUND THE
BASE OF A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN PAN HANDLE
AREA OF TEXAS AND MOVING ACROSS THE SURFACE SYSTEMS PROVIDING LIFT
AND MOISTURE ALOFT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
OF WHICH WERE STRONG TO SEVERE...PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LARGE HAIL AND STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS. WITH SUCH A COMPLEX
SYSTEM...MOVMENT OF THE STORMS WERE SLOW AND WILL RESULT IN VERY
HEAVY RAIN SINCE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE FROM NEAR ONE INCH
TO NEAR ONE AND THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS EAST TEXAS INTO
WESTERN LOUISIANA. THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK THE
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS NEAR THE
RED RIVER AND INTO ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA...NUDGING THE
SURFACE LOW/S SOUTH WITH THE COLD FRONT REACHING TO THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AN OCCULUDED FRONT INTO LOWER PARTS OF
THE PAN HANDLE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE SOUTHWEST
INTO WEST TEXAS AND MEXICO. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A WET
PERIOD FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SHIFTINTG INTO NORTHWEST
MISSSISSIPPI...WESTERN TENNESSEE WITH ITS TRAILING TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE SHOWERS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH THE RAIN ENDING BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMAINTE THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE EATERN STATES BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRUSH JUST
EAST OF OUR REGION AFFECTING THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS AND
THEN INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  53  63  46 /  80  80  60  10
MLU  68  56  64  48 /  70  80  70  30
DEQ  65  49  60  42 /  80  80  60  10
TXK  66  51  61  46 /  80  80  60  10
ELD  66  51  59  44 /  70  80  70  30
TYR  71  54  64  47 /  80  80  40  10
GGG  71  53  63  48 /  80  80  40  10
LFK  73  59  68  50 /  80  80  40  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06



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