Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KSHV 241741
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1241 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.AVIATION...
Large area of showers with isolated thunderstorms have decreased
in coverage over the last several hours mainly south of the I-20
Corridor this morning. Further development of these showers along
with isolated thunderstorms is difficult to pin down as abundant
mid and high level cloud cover will limit heating which would
certainly be tied to renewed convective development. For the 18z
taf package, did prevail VCSH across all but the TXK/ELD terminal
locations through the remainder of the afternoon hours with a
tempo group for the possibility of -TSRA. Terminals which are MVFR
should climb to VFR later this aftn.

Overnight, dropped all mention of SHRA or TSRA with mid and high
level cloud cover thinning, especially during the predawn and post
dawn hours Tuesday morning from west to east across our terminal
airspace. Mid and high level cloud cover should remaining ovhd
tonight should limit any vsby concerns overnight but did mention
some MVFR vsby restrictions at MLU/TXK/LFK and ELD terminals
towards sunrise Tue morning just in case.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1147 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A complex forecast is the best way to describe today`s weather
situation as remnant convection from overnight/early morning is
still ongoing south of I-20 across deep east Texas across Toledo
Bend into parts of north central Louisiana. Meanwhile, farther
north the atmosphere is still somewhat worked over from earlier
convection. The question is how much will these areas recover this
afternoon and with the extensive cloud cover still in place late
this morning. Current thinking is convection will not be quite as
widespread as initially thought with less instability along and
north of I-20. However, abundant moisture remains in place and
gradual heating through the remainder of today coupled with the
upper level weakness still hanging around should allow for some
scattered convection to develop over our northern sections. So
have generally framed the pop forecast to reflect lower pops to
the north and slightly higher south. Thus, high temperatures have
also been tweaked to generally lower forecast highs a degree or
two in most locations but generally expects highs to reach either
side of 90 degrees. Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast is on
track and no other changes are needed at this time.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  94  75  96 /  30  20  10  10
MLU  75  93  74  95 /  30  30  10  10
DEQ  73  93  73  95 /  30  20  10  10
TXK  74  93  74  94 /  30  20  10  10
ELD  74  94  73  95 /  30  20  10  10
TYR  75  94  75  95 /  30  20  10  10
GGG  74  94  74  95 /  30  20  10  10
LFK  75  94  74  95 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

19/13



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.