Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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679
FXUS64 KSHV 201738
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1238 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS were slow to deteriorate at all TAF sites, but
intermittently persisted at kmlu and ktxk /and at times keld/,
thus resulting in retaining a TEMPO for at least an hour at this
time. Otherwise, CIGS should improve to VFR at all terminals later
this afternoon with SCT-BKN CIGS expected. FEW-SKC will become
commonplace a few hours after sunset, whilst slightly gusty
southerly winds relax and decline to between 3-8 kts. Could see
VFR-MVFR fog develop particularly at kmlu and klfk late tonight
where wind speeds will be lightest, however CIG conditions will
deteriorate to MVFR-IFR criteria at all sites overnight. Expect
VFR conditions to return by late Thursday morning.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1109 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
For the morning update have made minor changes to the sky
coverage, surface winds, and removed the mention of morning fog.
A small upper level low pressure system over Southeast Oklahoma
and Southwest Arkansas had a short wave trough of low pressure
that extended Southwest across East and Northeast Texas and to
the middle and upper Texas Coast. Earlier a few showers had
developed near and ahead of the base of the trough across parts of
Southeast Texas just South of Toledo Bend Lake and the East Texas
Lakes Area, but those have weakened. With afternoon heating and
available moisture there could be additional development of
convection during the remainder of the day for areas to the East
of this upper low and trough with higher chances from the coast
across Northwest and North Central Louisiana and South Central
Arkansas. No significant changes were made to the expected high
temperatures.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 414 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Some patchy fog and low stratus will once again be possible this
morning, mainly south of Interstate 20. However, abundant mid and
high level convective debris cover the area, which should limit
the fog potential for most locations. Any fog that does develop,
should dissipate by mid morning. Otherwise, similar conditions are
expected as the last couple of days. Daytime temperatures should
warm into the low to mid 90s. Surface dewpoints should also be
in the 70s as low-level southerly flow draws Gulf moisture
northward. This combination will likely result in heat index
values above 100 degrees F across most of the area this afternoon.
A Heat Advisory is not anticipated at this time. The sea breeze
may also bring isolated to widely scattered diurnal convection to
areas south of Interstate 20 this afternoon and into early this
evening.

A general persistence forecast will be the rule through at least
Sunday. An upper ridge axis over the area will amplify through the
weekend keeping warm and mostly dry conditions in place. Diurnal
sea breeze activity will continue to be the main source for rain.
During the weekend, a weak upper low will drift west across the
Southeast CONUS and towards the region. Vertical ascent may be
slightly enhanced by this features, which may provide some
increase in convective coverage during the weekend, mainly across
Southern Arkansas and Louisiana.

Medium range models continue to suggest a pattern shift will be
coming early next week as a longwave trough digs across the
Western U.S. and then moves across the Northern Plains during the
middle of next week. The passage of this trough axis should help
to push a cold front into the region next week. This front should
provide a much better chance at widespread and organized
convection.

CN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  92  73  93 /  10  20  10  20
MLU  71  92  72  92 /  10  20  10  20
DEQ  73  91  71  92 /   0  10   0  10
TXK  73  91  72  91 /   0  10   0  10
ELD  72  91  71  92 /   0  10  10  20
TYR  74  91  72  91 /   0  20  10  10
GGG  73  91  72  91 /   0  20  10  10
LFK  74  90  71  91 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29/06/09



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