Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 020512 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1212 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION...
A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT...AS SCT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NEAR AND E OF A
WEAK INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG A LFK...TO SHV...ELD LINE
AS OF 05Z. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GR...WITH GUSTY WINDS/EXTREME TURBULENCE POSSIBLE
IN/NEAR THE STORMS AS WELL. HAVE MENTIONED VCTS FOR ALL TERMINALS
WITH TEMPO MENTION OF TSRA...WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AROUND/JUST AFTER DAYBREAK MAINLY SE OF A TYR TO TXK LINE.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE W /OVER
ECNTRL OK/N TX/...WITH INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH TIME
FROM THE W. THE SFC TROUGH SHOULD BE REINFORCED SE LATE
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY EVEN AFTER ITS DEPARTURE BY MIDDAY. THE CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH FROM W TO E AFTER 18Z AS WELL...WITH CIGS SCATTERING
OUT/BECOMING VFR LATE IN THE DAY. SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL
IMPROVEMENT BY THE END OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. LT/VRB OR LIGHT NNW
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NNW 5-10KTS AFTER 15Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION..INCLUDING ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS...CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED
FROM KLFK...TO KMNE...TO KCDH. SOME OF THE STORMS WERE QUITE
ROBUST EARLIER THIS EVENING WITH REPORTS OF GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL
IN UNION COUNTY ARKANSAS. 00Z KSHV SOUNDING SHOWED CAPE VALUES
AROUND 2000 J/KG WHICH HAS PROVIDED PLENTY OF INSTABILITY.
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF
HOURS BUT INSTABILITY IS GRADUALLY DECREASING AND CONVECTIVE
INTENSITY ALREADY APPEARS TO BE WANING. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHWEST
OVER OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS WILL LIKELY ENTER THE CWA DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

POPS/QPF/WX GRIDS WERE TWEAKED A BIT BASED ON CURRENT ACTIVITY AND
SOME MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO DEWPOINTS AND WINDS BASED ON
LATEST OBS. HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WAS
LEFT INTACT. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  74  54  72 /  50  50  20  10
MLU  65  74  56  74 /  60  70  40  10
DEQ  55  70  48  72 /  50  20  10  10
TXK  59  71  51  72 /  50  40  10  10
ELD  61  72  53  72 /  60  60  20  10
TYR  59  71  51  72 /  50  30  10  10
GGG  61  72  53  72 /  50  40  20  10
LFK  65  75  56  75 /  60  60  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15


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