Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 261218
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
718 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 26/12Z TAFS...SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG SLIGHTLY REDUCING
VSBYS THIS MORNING AT SEVERAL ARKLATEX TERMINALS BUT THIS WILL
QUICKLY ERODE WITH SFC HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE
FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH JUST SOME AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPING
ALONG WITH SOME OCCASIONAL THIN CIRRUS PASSING THROUGH THE REGION.
WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING FROM THE S/SW AND REMAIN
NEAR 10 KTS OR LESS...THEN DECREASING AFTER 27/00Z. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT SFC WINDS. NO OTHER AVIATION CONCERNS TO NOTE.
/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE THE HEAT FOR THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A
BIG COOL DOWN FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. BUT LET`S BEGIN WITH THE HEAT.

500MB UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN OK/TX PNHDL
REGION THIS MORNING...A LITTLE FURTHER EAST COMPARED TO THIS TIME
ON FRIDAY. RIDGE AXIS IS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS OUR REGION AND
THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES DID NOT MIX DOWN QUITE AS LOW AS THEY SHOULD
HAVE GIVEN THE DRY AIR WITNESSED IN THE LOWEST 5KFT ON OUR 00Z SAT
SOUNDING. THIS RESULTED IN HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING BETWEEN
100-104 DEGREES ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE
REGION WILL BE A DEGREE OR SO WARMER TODAY COMPARED TO FRIDAY...WE
MAY APPROACH 105 DEGREE HEAT INDEX VALUES ACROSS A FEW LOCATIONS
BUT DO NOT BELIEVE IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A HEAT
ADVISORY. MOS FCST MAX TEMPERATURES HAVE FOR DAYS BEEN TOO WARM
AND THE MOS EQUATIONS ARE NOT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT PRESENT SOIL
MOISTURE BUT IT`S THAT SOIL MOISTURE THAT IS NOT ALLOWING THE
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE TO MIX DOWN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. THE
SAME WILL BE TRUE FOR SUNDAY BEFORE WE AWAIT ANOTHER PIECE OF COOL
AIR BACKDOORING ITS WAY INTO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY FOR NEXT WEEK.

THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES BACK TO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST FOR
MONDAY AS A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE FRONT LIKELY PUSHING
COMPLETELY THROUGH THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. FRONT
APPEARS TO BACK UP SLIGHTLY ON ITS WESTERN FLANK FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THU TIMEFRAME AS A SHORTWAVE WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. FOLLOWED THE ECMWF SOLUTION CLOSELY FOR THE LATE WEEK
FORECAST WHICH SHOWS A GOOD SLUG OF QPF MOVING DOWN THE UPPER AND
MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT BEFORE WE DRY OUT FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY BEGINNING TUESDAY
BUT WE SHOULD BEGIN TO REALLY FEEL IT WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...
ASSUMING RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  75  97  77  96 /   0   0   0  10  30
MLU  95  73  95  74  95 /   0   0   0  10  30
DEQ  94  72  95  74  92 /   0   0   0  20  20
TXK  95  75  96  74  94 /   0   0   0  20  30
ELD  94  72  95  74  94 /   0   0   0  20  30
TYR  96  75  97  77  96 /   0   0   0  10  30
GGG  96  74  97  76  96 /   0   0   0  10  30
LFK  97  75  98  76  96 /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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