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000
FXUS64 KSHV 242017
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
317 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.DISCUSSION...
PRETTY QUIET AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS NOTED ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH SHOWED SO MUCH PROMISE BACKDOORING
COMPLETELY THROUGH THE REGION HAS SINCE PUT ON THE BREAKS AND WAS
RATHER DIFFUSE ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES. DEWPOINT
DROP LAGS THE FRONT SOME 50 MILES OR SO AS DOES THE TEMPERATURES
LAG WITH 70S STILL NOTED ACROSS ALL OF S AR AS OF 19Z. STILL PLAN
ON KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG AND
SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM MOUNT PLEASANT AND MARSHALL TEXAS TO THE
TOLEDO BEND RESERVOIR. THIS IS ROUGHLY WHERE THE FRONT HAS PULLED
UP STATIONARY AND BETTER MOISTURE POOLING ALONG/IN ADVANCE OF THE
BOUNDARY STILL EXISTS.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CAUGHT UNDERNEATH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE REMAINS
IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
COMES OUR WAY FOR SATURDAY. MODEL QPF OUTPUT SUGGESTS A LITTLE
BETTER TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS OUR REGION ON SATURDAY BUT THEY
SUGGESTED THIS TODAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES AND THE COVERAGE
HAS JUST NOT BEEN THERE. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SAT
ACROSS OUR WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE REGION AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BACK UP BEFORE WASHING OUT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. FOR SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES
ELONGATED AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS
OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUT THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND
TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SUNDAY. KEPT POP MENTION OUT
OF THE MEMORIAL DAY FORECAST BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REALLY
STRENGTHENS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO CARVE ITS WAY OUT
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. LAKE WIND ADVISORIES MAY BECOME NECESSARY
FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES ON MEMORIAL DAY FOR ANY OUTDOOR RECREATIONAL
INTERESTS. WHILE THE BULK OF THE DYNAMICS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE WEST OF OUR REGION...IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH IN
PROXIMITY TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXTENSIVE CU FIELD IS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS E TX AND NW LA WITH LOW END VFR CIGS AT THESE AREA TERMINALS.
ELSEWHERE...CU IS MORE SPARSE ALONG WITH SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT ABOUT AS
FAR INTO E TX AS IT IS GOING TO GET...ISOLD SHWRS AND TSTMS HAVE
DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON INVOF THE FRONT BUT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH
WITH HEATING LATER THIS EVENING. SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
E/NE BETWEEN 5-10 KTS THIS EVENING AND THEN DECREASE INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. EXPECT A GRADUAL SHIFT TO MORE E/SE FLOW BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME SPOTTY LOWER CIGS MAY REDEVELOP AS WELL AS VSBY
RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE E TX TERMINAL LOCATIONS FROM 25/09Z THROUGH
25/15Z...BUT ANY MVFR REDUCTIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE BRIEF AND
INTERMITTENT. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  67  87  70  88  70 /  10  20  20  20  20
MLU  62  87  67  88  68 /  10  10  10  20  20
DEQ  61  85  67  86  68 /  10  20  20  20  20
TXK  63  85  69  87  70 /  10  20  20  20  20
ELD  60  85  66  87  67 /  10  10  10  20  20
TYR  70  87  71  88  71 /  20  20  20  20  20
GGG  69  87  70  88  70 /  20  20  20  20  20
LFK  71  88  71  89  70 /  20  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13/19