Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 172308
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
508 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

.AVIATION...
Regional radar mosaics showing scattered to numerous showers
across portions of Northern Louisiana...Southern Arkansas as well
as Northeast Texas. The rainfall has helped to mix lower ceilings
out somewhat with several terminal sites coming in with VFR
ceilings near 5-8kft. This will change after dark with ceilings
expected to crater to at the very best IFR with LIFR ceilings
possible late tonight. Followed the HRRR forecast concerning
weather in the 00z TAF package overnight which indicates a beak in
the expansive -shra coverage across Northern Louisiana later
tonight with coverage expected to increase in coverage and
intensity across Northeast Texas in the 18/04-08z timeframe.
Some of this activity late tonight through the morning hours on
Wed will likely contain lightning associated with it and therefore
tried to make reference to when upper level support is
strongest...sometime near sunrise and throughout the morning hours
on Wed. LIFR/IFR ceilings will likely not mix out during the day
Wed and thus prevailed these categories througout the daytime
hours across most terminal locations.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 331 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Persistent broad band of showers across the area, extends back
through central TX. Instability quite limited and only a few ltg
strikes this aftn so will keep mention of tstms as isold. Bulk of
heavy rainfall still upstream, and will materialize as upper low
over sw states continue to move east across central/srn plains,
with mid lvl temps cooling as airmass continues to undergo deep
saturation. Low lvl dynamics will be decent although sfc winds
will not be stg as most of the low characteristics not sfc based,
including instability, which will remain mostly elevated. Thus,
risk for svr wx still marginal despite stg mid and upper lvl flow
around base of upper low. Heavy rain may pose a problem at some
areas if current trends for training precip, that have been
occurring with the lgt to moderate rain thus far with this system,
continue as rainfall becomes heavier. Models bringing the dry slot
into ne TX fairly early in day Thursday, with precip diminishing
areawide by later in aftn. A brief reprieve Thursday night thru
Friday, with quick moisture return beginning Fri night under
continued deep sw flow. However, this system should move quicker
thru area with precip ending durg the day Sunday.

/VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  61  57  68 /  70  90  60  30
MLU  54  64  61  70 /  60  70  70  60
DEQ  46  55  50  63 /  70  50  40  20
TXK  48  54  52  65 /  70  70  50  20
ELD  49  57  55  65 /  60  60  60  50
TYR  50  58  53  69 / 100 100  50  20
GGG  51  60  55  67 /  90 100  60  20
LFK  57  67  58  69 /  80 100  60  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

VII/13



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