Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 191836
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
136 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...
An upper ridge of 597 dkm at 500 HPa centered over SRN KS this
Wednesday afternoon to weaken slightly and progress E into the SE
U.S. through this weekend. Underneath this ridge on the S flank,
expect a weak short wave trough to retrograde W across the Gulf Coast
during this upcoming weekend. This trough will reignite the
seabreeze and result in SCT showers and TSTMS during this weekend,
a development always welcomed during this time of year. We can expect
typical summertime daylight convection this weekend as TSTMS develop,
dissipate, and produce outflow boundaries that often collide with new
TSTMS then developing in these boundary interactions.

This trough should weaken and move W into TX next week. Weak NW flow
then becomes established across the ArkLaTex and NE LA during next
week with perhaps some nighttime TSTMS possible. In any case, temps
cool to near 90 degrees for highs, also a welcome development as
well as we reach the peak of summer with climatological highs in the
mid 90s and lows in the mid 70s.  /VIII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 116 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017/

AVIATION...
VFR conditions to prevail throughout the 18Z TAF pd, as an upper
level ridge of high pressure remains in control of our weather
pattern. A few shwrs/tstms will be possible through sunset but
will be too isold to mention in TAFs attm, so will amd as
necessary. Otherwise, light and generally vrbl winds to continue
through the pd. /12/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 919 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Persistence forecast typical for mid July to continue through the
remainder of this work week.

A broad ridge remains centered over OK this Wednesday morning with
little movement expected through Friday. By this weekend, a weak
short wave trough retrogrades west across the Gulf Coast with
increasing rain chances for the weekend.

In the meantime, expect the above described ridge to reduce
convective coverage to just across the southern half of the ArkLaTex
region with only widely SCT areal coverage at best.

Finally, expect heat indices to reach upwards of 108 degrees this
afternoon across the southern half of the ArkLaTex. Curiously
enough, we have not recorded a triple digit high temperature yet
this summer across any of the Shreveport county warning area of E
TX, SE OK, SW AR, and N LA. For this trend to continue, we must
receive timely and near normal rainfall for the remainder of this
July and throughout August. /VIII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  77  96  76  96 /  10  10  10  20
MLU  75  96  75  95 /  10  20  10  20
DEQ  72  96  73  95 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  75  96  75  95 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  73  97  75  96 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  76  96  76  96 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  75  96  75  95 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  74  95  75  95 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ061-071>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...None.
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ126-138-150>153-
     165>167.

&&

$$

08/08



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