Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 161809
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
109 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 16/18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MOST
OF THIS TAF PERIOD DESPITE SEVERAL CLOUD LAYERS AFFECTING OUR TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION DUE TO WEAK WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. MEANWHILE...CU
FIELD IS QUICKLY EXPANDING NWRD FROM THE LA/TX COAST AS SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION IS ENHANCED BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH A WEAK BACK
DOOR FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE TXK/ELD TERMINALS. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS
AT ALL TERMINALS FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING
WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF TSRA AT THE LFK TERMINAL. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND MOSTLY VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD BUT STILL FAVOR
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT. THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT/WED MORNING
IS FOG DEVELOPING IN THIS VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND WINDS NEAR CALM.
VSBYS MAY DROP TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR FOR A FEW HOURS BY SUNRISE
BUT QUICKLY IMPROVE THEREAFTER. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING DEPICTS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING
ESE FROM THE LOWER TN VALLEY SW ACROSS NRN MS TO NEAR THE AR/LA BORDER
INTO THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY. SOME OF THE AC SHIELD BENEATH THIS
SHORTWAVE HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF ERODING /PER VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY/...ALTHOUGH A FEW WEAK ELEVATED RADAR RETURNS STILL CONTINUE
TO SHOW UP NEAR THE SHORTWAVE BASE ACROSS SRN AR/SRN MCCURTAIN COUNTY
OK. THESE SHOULD BE SPRINKLES AT MOST...AS CIGS REMAIN ABOVE 12KFT PER
THE 15-16Z OBS...WITH MORE OF A CU FIELD EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOON
WHERE BREAKS IN THE AC ARE NOTED AND TEMPS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE
MID 80S. THE 12Z PROGS ARE NOT VERY BULLISH AT ALL IN DEVELOPING
CONVECTION WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AS IT CONTINUES TO DROP ESE ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH PW/S AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON...STILL CAN/T RULE OUT AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
THE WEAK SEABREEZE OVER SE TX/EXTREME SW LA HAS NOT SHOWN SIGNS OF
MOVING VERY FAR INLAND THIS MORNING...AND GIVEN THE MORE ESE LOW LEVEL
COMPONENT...THIS CONVECTION MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH THE SRN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON.

HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LOW CHANCE OVER THE SRN ONE-THIRD OF THE
AREA...AND EXTENDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FARTHER S ALONG AND N OF THE
BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE. HAVE ALSO RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AS WELL
OVER E TX/N LA...WITH SOME LOCALES LIKELY REACHING 90 DEGREES GIVEN
THE BREAKS IN THE AC FIELD.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  71  92  72  90 /  20  20  30  20  30
MLU  88  69  91  70  91 /  20  20  20  20  30
DEQ  87  66  89  69  88 /  20  10  30  20  30
TXK  88  68  90  71  88 /  20  10  30  20  30
ELD  87  66  90  68  90 /  20  10  20  20  30
TYR  89  71  91  72  88 /  20  20  30  20  30
GGG  90  71  91  71  89 /  20  20  30  20  30
LFK  93  72  91  72  89 /  40  30  30  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19




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