Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 300327
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1027 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT MCS OVER E TX/NW LA/SW AR/SE OK CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EXPAND
ENE THIS EVENING...WITH MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATING A SECOND
LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION JUST TO THE W OVER ECNTRL TX JUST AHEAD
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM ERN OK INTO CNTRL TX. THE
SHORT TERM PROGS/LATEST HRRR DEPICT THIS CONVECTION SLOWLY
MARCHING E TONIGHT...WITH THE LINE OF CONVECTION E OF I-35
EVENTUALLY OVERTAKING A PORTION OF THE ONGOING MCS OVER E TX/SW
AR. THE OVERALL HAIL THREAT HAS DIMINISHED THIS EVENING...BUT
STILL HAVE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES GIVEN
THE STRONG SHEAR STILL IN PLACE...HENCE THE TOR WATCH REPLACEMENT
WITH SVR WATCH #128 FOR ALL BUT CALDWELL/GRANT/LASALLE PARISHES IN
NCNTRL LA THROUGH 10Z.

THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...BUT GIVEN THE 00Z
GUIDANCE/HRRR...HAVE REMOVED THE HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING MUCH OF E
TX/SE OK/SW AR SATURDAY...AND REMOVED THE HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE REGION
IS QUICKLY DRY SLOTTED BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. THUS...THE
CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH SHOULD BE CANCELLED BEFORE THE
EXPIRATION TIMES SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING SHOULD END.

ZONE UPDATE/WATCH ISSUANCE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE
SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 30/00Z TAFS...ANOTHER COMPLEX FORECAST ONCE AGAIN WITH
AMENDMENTS LIKELY. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...INCLUDING OCCASIONAL
SEVERE TSTMS...ARE AFFECTING MOST TERMINALS IN E TX NORTH OF
I-20/SRN AR/SE OK. SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION IS ONGOING
FARTHER SOUTH OF I-20 IN E TX. STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WILL AFFECT
ALL TAF SITES DURING THE PERIOD AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
FLUCTUATE. A MORE SOLID LINE OF TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 30/06Z
AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE
REGION AFTER 30/21Z. A FEW LINGERING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 01/00Z. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  82  67  82 /  90  70  50  20
MLU  70  81  68  83 /  70  70  70  30
DEQ  66  78  58  81 /  90  50  20  10
TXK  68  80  62  82 /  90  70  30  10
ELD  69  80  65  83 /  90  70  50  20
TYR  68  82  63  81 /  90  50  20  10
GGG  69  83  65  82 /  90  70  30  10
LFK  70  81  69  82 /  90  70  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ001>004.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ005-006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ152-153-165>167.

&&

$$

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