Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 212050
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
350 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST
THIS AFTERNOON...OUT OF THE ARKLATEX REGION. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE BRUNT OF THE
SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM LUFKIN EAST TO LOUISIANA. THIS SHOWERS
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING..WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A TRANSITORY WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE ARKLATEX FOR
FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IN TIME...THINK THAT MOST OF THE REGION WILL
PROBABLY BE DRY...BUT HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOR WESTERN AREAS...AS SOME MOISTURE DOES
TRY TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM TEXAS. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST
ON SATURDAY...OPENING THE DOOR FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND.

THE PERIODS OF MOST CONCERN IN THE FORECAST ARE REALLY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...AS THE NEXT WEST COAST LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE US BEFORE PUSHING EAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH A DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF
THE MAIN TROUGH AIDS IN THE LIFT. THE MAIN TROUGH THEN SHIFTS EAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.6 AND 2.1 INCHES DURING THIS
TIME...MEANING THAT ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN LIKELY.
GIVEN HOW SATURATED THE GROUND IS WITH THE RECENT RAINS...BELIEVE
FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE LIKELY THESE DAYS. HAVE HELD OFF
ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AT THIS
TIME...JUST TO GIVE THE MODELS ANOTHER DAY TO FINE TUNE THE
TIMING...BUT BELIEVE ONE WILL BE NEEDED FOR THESE DAYS.

THE EXTENDED MODELS START TO VARY ON THE TIMING FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE REGION WILL
EITHER BE UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OR ANOTHER TROUGH.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THE THREAT OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR FLOOD TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RED RIVER
CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER IS
FORECASTING UPWARDS OF 8 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER THE
RED RIVER BASIN UPSTREAM OF LAKE TEXOMA IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THIS
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND WILL INCREASE
THE LIKELIHOOD OF A MAJOR FLOOD EVENT ALONG THE RED RIVER...THE
FIRST TIME SINCE 1990. OUR MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING THAT A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION MAY FALL ALONG THE RED RIVER
AS THE CREST MOVES SOUTH TOWARDS SHREVEPORT. THIS ADDS AN
ADDITIONAL LEVEL OF CONCERN. NEEDLESS TO SAY...WE WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE
RED RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS...PLEASE SEE NEWPHNSHV OR NOUS44
KSHV OR THE CURRENT AND FORECASTED RIVER LEVELS LINK ON OUR
WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/SHV.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 143 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

AVIATION...
LOW MVFR CIGS TO OCNL IFR CIGS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
SOME IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR CIGS BY 22/00Z. SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AT
KMLU AND KLFK...WITH STANDING WATER POSSIBLE ON RUNWAYS THIS AFTN.
VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATING INCREASING NORTHERLY CLIMB WINDS WITH
SFC WINDS AROUND 10 KTS BEHIND FRONT...WHICH IS MOVG SOUTH INTO SE
TX/SOUTH LA. WINDS BEMCG EASTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS FRIDAY./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  59  77  65 /  70  20  20  20
MLU  72  56  76  63 /  60  20  20  20
DEQ  69  55  72  60 /  50  10  40  20
TXK  68  56  73  61 /  50  20  30  20
ELD  68  55  74  61 /  60  20  20  20
TYR  69  61  76  66 /  70  20  40  20
GGG  70  61  77  66 /  70  20  30  20
LFK  76  65  80  69 /  70  30  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PALMER/VII


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