Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 192113
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
413 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAD OPENED INTO A
WAVE FROM PREVIOUSLY CLOSED LOW...WAS MOVING OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND WAS SENDING A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WAS LIFTING OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND HAD A TRAILING
COLD FRONT INTO OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS OVERTAKING A DRY LINE ACROSS
TEXAS. WITH PLENTY OF SUN DURING THE DAY AND A STRONG INFLOW OF
GULF MOISTURE INTO THE SYSTEMS...THE ATMOSPHERE IS UNSTABLE AND
WILL BE PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AND WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED BETWEEN THE SURFACE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND
PARTS OF EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND DURING THE EVENING WITH THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PHASE WITH THE MORE SOUTHERN TROUGH
CARVING OUT A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. WITH RIDGING ON THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DRY
WEATHER WILL LAST INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK BUT A LARGE AND
CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE CANADA BORDER AND INTO THE UPPER
MID WEST WITH A RATHER BROAD TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH A FLAT RIDGE ACROSS MEXICO AND
THE SOUTHERN STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO
THE AREA BY LATER TUESDAY AND REMAINING INTO THE WEEKEND...WHEN A
BRIEF BUT WEAK RIDGING PATTERN ALOFT SHIFTS OVER THE GULF COAST
STATES. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A DRY LATE WEEKEND. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  56  73  49  77 /  50   0   0  10
MLU  59  73  49  77 /  60   0   0  10
DEQ  49  71  42  74 /  40   0   0  20
TXK  53  72  45  75 /  50   0   0  10
ELD  55  71  44  75 /  60   0   0  10
TYR  52  72  49  76 /  30   0   0  10
GGG  53  73  49  76 /  40   0   0  10
LFK  56  76  51  79 /  40   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-
     108>111-124-125-136-137-149-150.

&&

$$

06



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