Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 230603
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1203 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.AVIATION...

EXPECT TO SEE MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES FOR MOST OF THE
TERMINAL FORECAST SITES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING. SHOULD SEE CONVECTION GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 23/10-12Z FOR KTYR AND
KGGG...23/12-14Z FOR KSHV...KLFK...AND KTXK...AND 23/14-16Z FOR
KELD AND KMLU. THE LOWER CEILINGS WILL START TO SCATTER OUT AND
LIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CATEGORIES RETURNING BY THE AFTERNOON. DRIER
AIR MOVES IN IN WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH 5-10 KNOTS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10-20
KNOTS...WITH WINDS BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY POSSIBLY 14-20 KNOTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. /06/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE CWA
THIS EVENING. PRECIP EXTENDS SW INTO CNTRL TX AND SWD TOWARDS THE
S TX COAST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS
AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. PRECIP WILL EVENTUALLY
END SUNDAY FROM SW TO NE AS THE AREA BECOMES DRY SLOTTED.

ADJUSTED POP/QPF/WX GRIDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HRS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. ALSO LOWERED MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT BY 2-3 DEGREES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE
CWA.

UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH...WITH SFC LOW TRAILING UPPER TROUGH TO
THE NW...AS TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS BIG BEND AREA...WITH CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND HILL COUNTRY BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY. UPPER
LVL DIRECTIONAL DIVERGENCE TO INTENSIFY AS TROUGH DIGS SLIGHTLY
MORE THIS EVE...BEFORE PIVOTING AND MOVING ACROSS AREA OVERNIGHT.
HAVE LOWERED EVE POPS WITH...KEEPING CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
NORTH CENTRAL LA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY TSTM WINDS IN
FCST...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20...AS LOW LVL SHEAR QUITE IMPRESSIVE
AND MID LVL INSTABILITY DECENT. HOWEVER...SATURATED CONDITIONS WILL
LIMIT SVR THREAT...KEEPING IT MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA.
GFS MORE CONSISTENT WITH MORE MODERATE DIGGING OF UPPER
TROUGH...AND SUBSEQUENT QUICKER DRY SLOTTING INTO EAST TX THAN
NAM. THUS...SW-W WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 15 MPH IN DRIER AIR VIA
MIXING FROM 30 TO 40 KT FLOW AT 850 MB. THIS QUICK WARMING SUNDAY
AFTN ENHANCED BY COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AS COLD FRONT MOVES SE
ACROSS OK. UPPER TROUGH IN NW FLOW ON TUESDAY...DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH
AND DOES NOT APPEAR THAT MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANY COLD CORE
CONVECTION SO REMOVED ISOLD TSTMS FROM FCST.
APPEARS THAT MOISTURE TO BEGIN RETURNING TO THE AREA BY NEXT
WKND...BUT HAVE NOT ADDED TO FCST ATTM./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  60  76  44  63  37 /  90  20   0  10  10
MLU  58  78  45  62  36 /  90  40   0  10  10
DEQ  57  71  37  59  33 /  90  30  10  10   0
TXK  58  73  41  60  35 /  90  30   0  10   0
ELD  58  73  41  61  36 /  90  40  10  10  10
TYR  59  74  41  62  36 /  90  10   0  10  10
GGG  60  74  41  63  35 /  90  10   0  10  10
LFK  61  78  44  64  37 /  90  10   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06




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