Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 301107
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
607 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE HAS
SHIFTED OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION FROM SOUTH ARKANSAS INTO NORTH
LOUISIANA. A COLD FRONT ALSO HAS SHIFTED SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND BACK INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTH TEXAS. FROM THIS LOW A COLD FRONT
TRAILED SOUTHWST ACROSS WEST TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE FORMED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FROM SOUTH ARKANSAS ACROSS NORTH
LOUISIANA AND INTO NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST INTO WEST TEXAS. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS AND INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS
UPPER FEATURE WILL SPREAD EAST ALONG THE RED RIVER REGION OF NORTH
TEXAS AND ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE FOUR STATE
REGION...PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST. DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THEATS WITH FLASH FLOODING AS RESULT
OF THE HEAVY RAIN THAT WILL BE TRAINING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND APPROACH OF THE SURFACE MOVING EAST FORMING A WAVE OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE EARLY EVENING SUNDAY WITH THE
RAINFALL SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND TAPERING OFF INTO
MONDAY...WITH ONLY THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES HAVING SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR RAIN INTO LATE MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST
INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION KEEPING THE RAIN CHANCES LOWER FOR MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH MAINLY THE EAST AND SOUTH HAVING
THE ONLY RAIN CHANCES. UNDER AND WITH THE ONSET OF THE UPPER RIDGE
THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
THE LOWER 90S. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  65  81  63 /  70  40  30  10
MLU  84  67  82  64 /  60  50  40  20
DEQ  81  60  78  60 /  50  20  10   0
TXK  81  63  79  62 /  60  30  20  10
ELD  83  64  80  63 /  70  40  30  10
TYR  81  64  80  62 /  70  40  20  10
GGG  82  64  80  63 /  70  40  20  10
LFK  84  67  82  64 /  60  50  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070-071.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001-002.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$

06



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