Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 132111
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
311 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Thursday...Gusty swly winds will continue to diminish
in speed after sunset tonight as the boundary layer decouples.
This will allow our temperatures to fall back down into the 30s
for most sites tonight. Cold front draped across srn OK will
continue to slowly make its way through our region late tonight
into Thursday morning, reinforcing the relatively cool airmass
already in place. See no reason to deviate from the blends in the
guidance for Thursday`s max temps, as CAA seems to be only
moderate at best and cloud cover doesn`t appear to be an issue.
/12/

Thursday night through Wednesday...Cooler conditions will develop
across the region for Thursday night and Friday, behind our weak
cold front. That being said, some high clouds may start to lift
back across the region once again, ahead of the next system.

This next system is the primary focus of the extended forecast at
this time, as it will be our next rain maker.  The models are
starting to come into better alignment with timing and strength, as
an upper level disturbance digs across Texas.  The models are
already hinting that this disturbance will tap into some tropical
moisture as well. At this point in time, believe Saturday morning
will be dry, but rain will develop across our southwestern areas
Saturday afternoon before spreading north and east through the
evening hours. If the timing holds, the wettest period will likely
be late Saturday night and early Sunday, with widespread rain
expected across the region. Given the trajectory of this system, it
appears that Louisiana and Arkansas will likely be the favored areas
with the rainfall, but there is still enough time that this could
change.  For now, this most areas will see between 0.5 inch and 1
inch of rain, with local amounts pushing 1.5 inches.  Although the
brunt of the moisture should push east of the area during the day on
Sunday, the models continue to hint at some wrap around rainfall
lingering into the afternoon and evening timeframes. Southern areas
may also see some lingering moisture on Monday and Monday night as
the boundary stalls across our southern areas.

Drier conditions will then finally develop for Tuesday and
Wednesday, with temperatures returning to seasonal ranges.
/Palmer/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1048 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017/

AVIATION... VFR conditions to prevail throughout the 18Z TAF pd.
Swly winds generally 10-15 kts areawide ahead of a dry cold front
will diminish in speed overnight, veering around to the n and ne
late tonight into Thursday morning. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  38  61  36  56 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  37  59  35  53 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  34  57  29  56 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  37  57  32  55 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  36  57  31  55 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  38  61  35  56 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  36  61  35  56 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  39  63  39  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.

&&

$$

12/Palmer


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