Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 011156
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
656 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.AVIATION...
For the 01/12Z terminal forecast period expecting brief mvfr
visibility restrictions this morning at KLFK and KMLU and again
during the Saturday morning between 02/11Z-02/13Z...otherwise
vfr flight categories expected. winds will be light and variable
less than 7 knots. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 507 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Have been watching convection upstream across Ncntrl AR diminish this
morning as they approached the Little Rock area...associated with
upper level shortwave energy diving SE from the MS Valley SW into AR.
While the latest mosaic radar imagery has mostly disspated the
convection this morning...an associated outflow bndry has been visible
in the radar and latest sfc obs extending from just SW of FSM...to
near MWT...HOT...and PBF. With the center of the H700-500 upper level
ridge expected to build E across N TX this morning and into E TX/N
LA/extreme Srn Ar this afternoon...weak perturbations aloft should
continue to drift atop the ridge across OK and into AR...and help
focus isolated convection this afternoon along this and other
potential mesoscale bndrys once heating/better instability has been
realized. Have added slight chance pops this afternoon and early
evening for McCurtain Co. OK as well as the Nrn counties iN SW
AR...before the convection diminishes with the loss of heating later
this evening. Farther S...subsidence beneath the upper ridge center as
well as the sfc ridge will contribute to another hot afternoon...with
the drier air above the bndry lyr quickly mixing down resulting in a
bit more tolerable RH/s similar to Thursday. Light SSE winds should
return though to E TX/SE OK this afternoon and result in a slow
advection of higher humidities...with this moistening air mass
contributing to slightly milder min temps tonight and higher RH/S
Saturday areawide.

The upper ridge center remains progged to shift SE but expand NNE
across the Lower MS Valley Saturday...thus inhibiting any isolated convection
development. Should also see a return to heat indices ranging between
100-105 degrees with the return to SSW winds both Saturday and Sunday...as
temps approach the upper 90s especially over portions of Ncntrl LA
beneath the ridge center. Afterwards...not expecting min temps to fall
much below the upper 70s as bndry lyr winds stay up over the next
several days. The ECMWF has finally begun to show signs of the
GFS/Canadian in flattening the upper ridge late Sunday into Monday in
response to a weak shortwave trough that will lift out of the Desert
SW and shift E across the Srn Rockies/Srn Plains. The GFS remains more
bullish with convective development over much of OK/TX Sunday
afternoon before shifting E into NE TX/AR Sunday night/Monday. Prefer
more of a blend of the Canadian/ECMWF with a weaker trough...with sct
convection still affecting portions of N TX/SE OK Sunday night before
reaching the I-30 corridor of NE TX/SW AR Monday. Have increased pops
to low chance for extreme SE OK Sunday night...and expanded chance
pops Monday along I-30. Not quite sure how far this convection would
expand SSE into E TX/possibly N LA Monday afternoon...with the
proximity of the flat upper ridging in place over these areas. Did
expand slight chance pops S to the I-20 corridor of E TX as well as
extreme Srn AR...and left the remainder of E TX/N LA dry for now given
the consensus of the drier ECMWF/Canadian blend.

This may be the only wetting rainfall portions of the area will
receive throughout much of next week...as upper level ridging looks to
rebuild over the Srn Plains/lower MS Valley. This will maintain max
temps in the mid/possibly upper 90s for the remainder of the
extended...and possibly necessitating the need for heat headlines at
that time given the higher RH/s expected.

Prelims to follow below...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  74  97  77 /   0   0  10  10
MLU  96  72  97  75 /   0   0  10  10
DEQ  94  69  94  73 /  20  10  10  10
TXK  96  73  96  76 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  95  70  96  74 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  97  75  96  77 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  96  73  96  77 /  10   0  10  10
LFK  96  74  96  75 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

06/15



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