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000
FXUS64 KSHV 180321
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1021 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED THE ZONE TO REFLECT THE CURRENT THINKING THAT DEVELOPMENT
OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR A NEARLY STATIONARY
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO EAST AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS NEAR A LIT TO TXK AND TYR LINE. THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WEAK
DISTURBANCES SHIFT SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND ACROSS
THE BOUNDARY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SOUTH FOR TUESDAY. MADE
MINOR CHANCES TO THE TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. /06/

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL IN MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLIER MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS 24 HOURS...EXPECT SCT MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS AROUND SUNRISE.
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LOW OVERNIGHT. THE BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SW AR...POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS
KSHV/KMLU...AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DRIFTS SWD ACROSS AR. BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHWRS/TSTMS EXIST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. IF THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY OVER W TX PERSISTS...IT SHOULD BEGIN
TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF E TX BY 18/12Z...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE
WEAKENING. REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BY NOON AREAWIDE ALONG BOTH
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND A WEAK SFC FRONT THAT WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE TIMING OF DAYTIME
CONVECTION AT THIS TIME...SO TIMING IN THESE TAFS IS UNCERTAIN.
SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER 19/00Z WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

SFC FRONT MAY MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-20 CORRIDOR BEFORE
STALLING. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NE AS THE FRONT PASSES. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  90  72  91  73 /  30  30  20  40  20
MLU  72  88  70  91  71 /  40  40  20  30  20
DEQ  69  87  68  89  70 /  30  20  20  30  10
TXK  71  88  70  90  71 /  30  20  20  30  20
ELD  71  88  69  90  71 /  40  40  20  30  20
TYR  73  90  73  89  74 /  30  30  20  40  10
GGG  73  90  73  89  73 /  30  30  20  40  10
LFK  75  92  74  92  73 /  30  40  30  40  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/09