Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 010320
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1020 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SFC LOW SHIFTING SLOWLY SEWRD AND WAS LOCATED NEAR OR JUST NW OF
LFK AS OF 03Z THIS EVENING...WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF STRONGER
CONVECTION NOW SOUTH OF THE LOW ACROSS SE TX. FOR THE EVENING
UPDATE...ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY TO BETTER ALIGN WITH RADAR TRENDS
AND GENERALLY INCREASED THEM ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM LFK TO
SHV AND ELD. ALSO REMOVED THUNDER AS CONVECTION SHOULD BE MOSTLY
IN THE FORM OF SHWRS BUT A FEW ISOLD LIGHTNING STRIKES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AS CLOUD HEIGHTS/TOPS VARY WITH THE DIFFERENT AREAS OF
CONVECTION. THE SFC LOW WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART INTO FRIDAY SO
SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLY THE SRN HALF
OF THE REGION FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HRS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT THIS EVENING. OTHER
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT INCLUDE INCREASING LOWS
A DEGREE OR TWO AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE PRETTY STEADY OVERNIGHT
WITH THICK CLOUD LAYERS...ALSO TWEAKED DEW POINTS AND WINDS TO
BETTER MIMIC CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY
BEEN SENT. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

AVIATION...
A WEAK SFC LOW JUST W OF TYR AS OF 23Z...AND ORIENTED ALONG A
N-S STATIONARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR CLL...TO JDD...THEN E ALONG THE
AR/LA LINE...WILL RESULT IN POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS/PERIODS OF
-SHRA/-DZ ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS
SE INTO DEEP E TX. BELIEVE THAT THE GREATEST THREAT FOR THUNDER
TONIGHT WILL BE ALONG A WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING FROM
NEAR TYR TO LFK/JAS...AFFECTING PRIMARILY THE TYR/LFK
TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED THUNDER CAN/T BE RULED OUT IN GGG
BETWEEN 01-04Z ASSOCIATED WITH A EWD MOVING MCV ALONG AN ELEVATED
AREA OF INSTABILITY. SCT SHRA SHOULD CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP/FILL E
ACROSS MUCH OF E TX/N LA/SW AR THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...RESULTING
IN MVFR CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS GRADUALLY SPREADING E LATE WHERE
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST NOW OVER N LA/SCNTRL AR. CLOSER TO THE SFC
LOW/STATIONARY FRONT...IFR CIGS WITH REDUCED VSBYS IN -RA/-DZ CAN
BE EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AND SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY MORNING WITH A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR
CIGS EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SCT -SHRA WILL LIKELY
PERSIST ACROSS NCNTRL LA/SCNTRL AR THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW...AND WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE. CAN/T
EVEN RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER AS WELL OVER NCNTRL LA...AS THE
INSTABILITY AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK N...PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE
MLU TERMINAL. WILL RE-EVALUATE THE THUNDER POTENTIAL FOR THE 06Z
TAF ISSUANCE...BUT DID MENTION VCSH HERE FOR THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT
ENE WINDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT BUT INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO 5-8KTS BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  83  69  85  69 /  60  30  20  20  10
MLU  69  84  67  86  67 /  60  40  30  30  20
DEQ  65  79  65  85  66 /  20  20  10  10  10
TXK  65  80  66  85  66 /  40  20  10  10  10
ELD  67  81  65  84  66 /  60  30  10  20  10
TYR  69  84  68  86  70 /  20  20  10  10  10
GGG  69  83  68  86  68 /  40  20  10  10  10
LFK  72  87  70  90  71 /  60  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19





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