Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 292057
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
357 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT NOW APPROACHING THE GULF COAST. A SFC HIGH WILL BE FIRMLY IN
CONTROL FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
ALLOW FOR PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT AND WITH LOW TEMPS
FALLING BELOW 50 DEGREES F ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME UPPER 30S IN THE TERRAIN OF SE OK/EXTREME SW AR. SFC HIGH
WILL SHIFT EWD ON THURSDAY AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW HIGH
TEMPS TO REBOUND NICELY INTO THE 70S. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. MEAGER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD
KEEP THIS FROPA DRY BUT THE BIG NEWS WILL BE THE ARCTIC AIRMASS
THE ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT. COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON LIKELY
THIS WEEKEND AS AN ARCTIC SFC HIGH BUILDS SWD INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY. LOW TEMPS SATURDAY/SUNDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 30S AREAWIDE
WITH TEMPS NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ALONG AND N OF I-30 SATURDAY
MORNING. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE 60S.

FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND SWLY FLOW WILL RETURN BY
MONDAY. TEMPS WILL QUICKLY WARM AND MOISTURE WILL STREAM NWD ONCE
AGAIN AS SFC CYCLOGENESIS LEE OF THE ROCKIES COMMENCES AND BRINGS
LOW LVL SLY WINDS BACK TO THE REGION. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH PUSHES YET
ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. LATEST GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO
DEPICT A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WITH AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE WEATHER AND HIGH AMOUNTS OF POST-FRONTAL RAIN. SIGNIFICANT
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH THE GFS ABOUT 12
HRS FASTER WITH THE FROPA AND ONSET OF PRECIP. TRIED TO COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE MODELS TO MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FCST
ISSUANCES. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IS STILL PRESENT WITH MUCH OF
THE DETAILS WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT THIS IS STILL GOING TO BE THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS. /09/

&&

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH OUR LAST TERMINAL LOCATION (LFK)
ATTM WITH POST FRONTAL NE WINDS NOTED AT ALL REMAINING TERMINAL
LOCATIONS. BROAD AREA OF MOSTLY LOW VFR CEILINGS EXTEND FROM SOUTH
OF LFK TO SOUTH OF TVR WITH THIS CLOUD COVER MOVING QUICKLY SOUTH
ATTM. THUS...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY...THROUGH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS WELL.

SFC RIDGING SETS UP OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. A RETURN
TO SE WINDS AND EVENTUAL SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE RIDGE DURING THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. /13/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  50  75  52  70  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  47  72  49  68  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  40  73  45  63  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  49  75  52  64  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  44  72  48  66  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  51  74  52  67  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  48  73  51  68  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  50  77  51  73  41 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/13




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