Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 032122
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
422 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION.
DESPITE THE DRY LOW LVL AIRMASS...THE DEPARTURE OF THE SFC HIGH HAS
REDUCED CINH JUST ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW SPOTTY SHWRS DURING THE
LAST HR OVER N CNTRL LA SOUTH OF I-20/EAST OF I-49 WHERE THE
RELATIVELY BETTER MOISTURE LVLS RESIDE. THE SHWRS HAVE HAD A VERY
DIFFICULT TIME DEVELOPING DUE TO THE CINH AND STILL MEAGER
MOISTURE SUPPLY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING
BUT HAVE INVOKED THE 10 POP RULE AND INSERTED ISOLATED SHWRS/TSTMS
THROUGH 03Z TONIGHT ACROSS THE FAR SRN ZONES TO COVER IT. MOST OF
THE REGION HAS SEEN ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH
DEWPOINTS ONCE AGAIN MIXING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. AS A
RESULT...TEMPS HAVE SOARED TOWARDS THE CENTURY MARK WITH MANY
LOCATIONS HITTING AT LEAST 100 DEGREES F TODAY...INCLUDING
SHREVEPORT.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WYOMING WILL ELONGATE AND
SLOWLY DIVE SEWD THROUGH THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE CONFLUENCE OF THE
MS/OH RIVERS BY LATE WEDNESDAY. VERTICAL ASCENT FROM THIS TROUGH
SHOULD GENERATE SHWRS/TSTMS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS WHICH
SHOULD THEN BE STEERED TOWARDS THE AREA BY NWLY FLOW ALOFT.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE CONVECTION THAT WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
STEERING INTO THE ARKLATEX WILL LIKELY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND
WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE REACH US. SHWRS/TSTMS THAT DEVELOP FARTHER
NORTH CLOSER TO A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE LONGER LIVED AND MAY
AFFECT SE OK/SRN AR. RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE WEDNESDAY MAY SPREAD
OVER MORE OF THE AREA AS THE FLOW ALOFT AMPLIFIES AND BECOMES MORE
NLY.

SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS A PIECE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH BREAKS
AWAY AND ROTATES AROUND THE ERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE THAT
WILL SLOWLY BE MAKING ITS WAY EAST INTO THE SRN PLAINS. THE RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO OKLAHOMA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RESULTING ELY
FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP ANY RAIN CHANCES LIMITED TO SOUTH OF I-20
AFTER SUNDAY.

I HATE TO BE THE BEARER OF BAD NEWS...BUT THE CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD WETTING...AND COOLING...RAINS STILL APPEAR LOW. THERE
WILL BE VERY LITTLE TO KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS OF  100+ DEGREES F FROM
BECOMING WIDESPREAD FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS. AS SLY FLOW
RETURNS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE HUMIDITY
BUILDS...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ALSO CLIMB AND A RETURN OF HEAT
HEADLINES IS LIKELY AFTER WEDNESDAY OF THIS WEEK. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  99  77 100 /   0  10  10  20
MLU  74  98  76  98 /   0  10  10  20
DEQ  71  97  74  97 /   0  10  20  20
TXK  74  98  77 100 /   0  10  20  20
ELD  73  98  75  97 /   0  10  20  20
TYR  75  99  77 100 /   0  10  10  10
GGG  75  99  77 100 /   0  10  10  20
LFK  74  97  75  99 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09


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