Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 281259
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
759 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015


.AVIATION...
UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL TX WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS AREA. IN THE
MEANTIME...SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ROTATE AROUND PERIPHERY OF LOW...
WITH SHOWERS TO SNEAK BACK INTO EAST TX BEFORE 28/18Z..AND LOW
MVFR TO OCNL IFR CIGS IN RAIN. SFC LOW FURTHER SOUTH...KEEPING SFC
WINDS FROM N-NE AROUND 10 KTS. RAINFALL SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS
AREA AFTER 29/03Z AND CIGS BECMG VFR./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS BETWEEN WICHITA FALLS
AND MINERAL WELLS TEXAS OR NEAR GRAHAM. THIS SYSTEM HAS HELPED
PROVIDE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FOUR STATE AREA AND
SURROUNDING LOCATIONS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. ON THE SUFACE...
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO OFF THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
AND A WARM FRONT AND NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EAST ACROSS THE GULF
AND OVER FLORIDA. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
AND THE FOUR STATE REGION LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT KEEPING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
GULF ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE CROSSING
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER EARLY ON WEDNESDAY AND STARTS TO OPEN INTO A
WAVE SIGNALING THE END TO OUR RAINFALL AS IT LIFTS ON ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THEN TAKE
OVER AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FOUR STATE AREA
PROVIDING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN NORMAL AND DRY WEATHER.
THERE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING OF TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.
A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT WILL BACK DOOR INTO THE AREA BY THE
WEEKEND BUT THIS WILL ONLY AID IN A KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE
MILD SIDE. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE SURFACE WILL MOVE EAST
AND RETURN SOUTHERLY WINDS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH GULF MOISTURE
INCREASING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE
COMBINING WITH OUR NEXT UPPER SERIES OF DISTURBANCES THAT WILL BE
BREAKING DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND AIDING IN THE
RETURN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1221 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 28/06Z TAFS...MVFR/LOW VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THIS TAF
PERIOD AS CLOUDS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO LOWER THIS EVENING WITH LINE
OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS E TX INTO WRN AR/LA. THE GENERAL TREND
WILL BE FOR EVEN LOWER CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING WITH ADVANCING
SHWRS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS THROUGH LATE MORNING. ADDITIONAL WAVES
OF SHWRS/TSTMS MAY CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY
AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO EJECT OUT OF W TX
JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER BRISK FROM THE E/NE
AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE TO NO IMPROVEMENT IN
CIGS IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD
CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS
EAST. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  47  73  50 /  60  30   0   0
MLU  63  49  70  50 /  60  40   0   0
DEQ  59  43  73  48 /  60  30   0   0
TXK  59  47  72  48 /  60  30   0   0
ELD  60  48  71  48 /  60  50   0   0
TYR  61  48  72  49 /  60  10   0   0
GGG  62  48  72  49 /  60  20   0   0
LFK  66  50  74  50 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/06/07



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