Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 231556

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1056 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

Convection is beginning to fire much earlier today compared to
yesterday at this time due to the combination of a weak shear
axis over the MS Delta region and the nearly stationary upper
level disturbance/remnant easterly wave to our south. Add to that
the 2 inch PWAT from our 12Z SHV sounding, and we have a favorable
environment for more scattered to possibly numerous convection
both today and again on Monday with little change in the current
features/pattern. For the morning update, have maintained the
current heat advisory for our far N/NW zones where cloud cover has
been quite limited thus far this morning whereas more extensive
cloud cover has been observed farther south and east across the
remainder of the region. Thus, have beefed up sky cover for today
and also trended pops higher across our far southern and eastern
zones where convection is already ongoing this morning. Otherwise,
the rest of the forecast appears to be in good shape but may need
to watch temperature forecast with more cloud cover farther south
and may need an additional update if trends favor a slower climb
in temperature readings by early afternoon. Will provide additional
updates if needed. New text products have already been issued.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 753 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017/

For the 23/12Z terminal forecast, expect brief period of MVFR/IFR
through 23/15Z for parts of East Texas and North Central Louisiana
then VFR for the remainder of the forecast period for the Arklatex
sites until around 24/09Z when low level moisture looks to spread
over some of the sites providing MVFR and possibly a brief period
of IFR into the morning hours on Monday around 24/15Z. have
included the mention of VCTS in the terminal sites from around
23/18Z to 24/00Z today. Surface winds will be South to Southwest
5-10 knots but stronger and more variable near thunderstorms, with
the winds lowering to less than 7 knots overnight, returning to
7-12 knots on Monday. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 550 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017/

Well we do have quite a bit more clouds around this morning and a
solid range of 70s from low to upper. These clouds will hold down
highs enough as anticipated to keep below that 105 mark for many
in the area, especially along and South of I-20. Some mid 70 dew
point in our North will amount to those excessive heat index
readings, while some marginal, there is a smattering of enough of
a range of 103-108 in some zone grouping`s text wording with a bit
more sun and less rain around.

The models show another good push in our direction for a sea
breeze later today compiling and concentrating the outflows for
some decent QPF. If you look at the water vapor we see the
beneficial mid level moisture overhead and some weaknesses in the
heights aloft. The upper low on the Gulf coast is slowing and
weakening, but will be close enough to help out once again today.

Another little feature is over N MS and will drift our way for
tomorrow and maybe even into Tuesday for some. This will help
lift the air enough for chance thunderstorm wording. Then later in
the week as this moisture aloft rotates Westward thinning out, we
will dry out again for mid to late week with perhaps more heat
advisories with mid to upper 90s again in the lack of convection
and cooling clouds.

By Friday our rain chances start to return with a weak cold front
on approach moving down the MS river valley and backdooring our
way. Then perhaps more promise of convection with NW flow in the
wake of the front over the nations heart land. We are looking good
to make a run for normal rainfall with this late month push.


SHV  93  76  91  77 /  40  30  40  30
MLU  92  75  91  76 /  50  30  40  30
DEQ  95  73  92  74 /  30  40  40  30
TXK  94  75  91  75 /  40  30  40  30
ELD  92  74  90  75 /  40  30  40  30
TYR  93  75  92  76 /  40  30  40  30
GGG  93  75  91  76 /  40  30  40  30
LFK  92  76  93  75 /  50  30  40  20


AR...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061.

OK...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096.



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