Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 030502 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1202 AM CDT WED SEP 3 2014

.AVIATION...
THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM EARLIER STORMS CONTINUES TO THIN
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE CIRRUS SHIELD HAS EXPANDED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. HOWEVER...PATCHY FG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF N
LA/SCNTRL AR WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL FELL EARLIER...WITH LIFR CIGS
IN FG AFFECTING THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE OVER E TX...IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS SHOULD
AGAIN DEVELOP AFTER 09Z...AND SPREAD NNE ACROSS E TX INTO WRN
LA THROUGH 12Z...AND POSSIBLY INTO SW AR SHORTLY THERE AFTERWARDS.
THESE CIGS SHOULD LIFT BY LATE MORNING...GIVING WAY TO A SCT CU
FIELD FOR THE AFTERNOON. CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER SCNTRL AR/N LA/E TX S OF
I-20...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AFFECTING ANY ONE TERMINAL AND
THUS PRECLUDES MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM. ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...WITH SOME
CIRRUS LINGERING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SE/LT
AND VRB WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME S 5-10KTS AFTER 15Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

UPDATE...
DIMINISHED POPS AND WEATHER TO SILENT TENS AND ALSO LOWERED LOWS FOR
MANY SITES. ALSO...TWEAKED SKY/FOG FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME.

DISCUSSION...
OBSERVATIONS LAST HOUR ARE NEAR...AND IN A COUPLE OF CASES AT
FORECAST LOWS...SO WE HAVE SPLIT THE T/TD SPREADS MORE OR LESS IN
MOST CASES. SKY IS THINNING WEST AND OVERHEAD AND LIGHT PATCHY
FOG WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN ANY SOAKED AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT
WORKING EAST BY DAYBREAK. THE STRONG MCS OUTFLOW FROM OK/AR THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HAS NOW PRETTY MUCH SCOURED OUT THE RAINFALL
IN OUR CWA OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO THIS EVENING. OF COURSE...WE
WON/T RECOVER UNTIL HEATING TOMORROW...BUT THE NEW NAM IS NOT VERY
OPTIMISTIC FOR MORE. ALTHOUGH...IT WAS A GOOD DAY FOR THE AREA RAIN
BUCKETS WITH THE OUTFLOW PENNING UP THE SEA BREEZE AND SPREADING
THE WEALTH OF WET WEATHER ALL AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
OUTFLOWS PARENT VORT IS MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY NOW AND A WEAK
RIDGE IS PUSHING OUT INTO THE PLAINS STATES. MORE SUMMER LIKE
CONDITIONS TO ENSUE. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  95  74  95  75 /  10  20  10  10  10
MLU  71  94  73  95  72 /  10  20  20  30  20
DEQ  72  92  72  92  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
TXK  73  94  73  93  73 /  10  20  10  10  10
ELD  72  93  72  92  71 /  10  20  10  20  20
TYR  74  95  74  94  75 /  10  20  10  10  10
GGG  73  94  74  93  74 /  10  20  10  10  10
LFK  75  93  74  95  74 /  10  20  10  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15





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