Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 182309
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
509 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

.AVIATION...
WSW low level flow is helping to drive 5-6kft moisture into our
region from the south and west this afternoon and this trend
should continue into the evening hours. This moisture is already
into the LFK/TYR/GGG terminals and should continue making steady
progress eastward this evening into the overnight hours
encompassing our remaining terminals. These ceilings will persist
into the daytime hours on Friday with the possibility of some MVFR
3kft ceilings encroaching into the TYR/GGG terminals towards the
tail end of this TAF period.

Winds will be light tonight and from the south overnight with
south winds increasing to 5 to 10kts areawide on Friday.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 401 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018/

DISCUSSION...
A nice warm-up has commenced this afternoon with lower to mid 40s
and plentiful sunshine. However, clouds are encroaching into our
SW sections in response to a weak shortwave spinning across the
Big Bend region of Texas. This large area of stratocu will ease
farther into our area this evening but with our very dry air mass
still in place, it may erode somewhat as it shifts farther to the
northeast. With these clouds increasing and the light south winds,
expect overnight temperatures to only fall into the 20s over much
of the area with readings near 30 degrees over parts of lower east
Texas.

The warmer temperatures we saw today are just a precursor of what
is to come through the upcoming weekend. Although we will not be
that much warmer on Friday due to the clouds expanding northeast
across all of the region, we will average around 50 degrees for
highs with only a slight chance of showers across our extreme SW
zones in deep east Texas where the shortwave trough is expected to
pass closer as it eases along the Gulf coast. By Saturday, south
winds really begin to increase as our next major storm system is
shifting into the Four-Corners Region. This approaching system
coupled with the departing shortwave will help to induce some lift
to keep slight to low chance POPs in the forecast through Saturday
night. Temperatures will run well above average with highs in the
60s on Saturday afternoon.

By Sunday, the Pacific system will be ejecting out of the Rockies
with a cold front tracking quickly into our region late Sunday.
Temperatures ahead of the front are likely to reach into the lower
70s with strong southerly ahead of the front. Widespread showers
and scattered thunderstorms will accompany the front, especially
Sunday evening through early Monday morning. Indications are the
severe threat with any of these storms remains minimal, but this
will be watched more closely over the next few days. Behind the
front, more seasonal temperatures will return to start next week
with dry weather expected to prevail through the remainder of the
extended period.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  27  49  43  66 /   0  10  20  20
MLU  23  48  39  64 /   0   0  10  20
DEQ  21  51  38  60 /   0   0  20  20
TXK  25  49  42  62 /   0  10  20  20
ELD  22  48  39  62 /   0   0  10  20
TYR  30  49  47  66 /   0  10  20  20
GGG  28  49  45  67 /   0  10  20  20
LFK  29  51  48  69 /   0  20  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

19/13


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