Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 202143
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
443 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to develop and move
northeastward across the region in response to a shortwave over
SE Texas/SW Louisiana coast. Although coverage will diminish,
expect showers/t-storms to continue on and off during the
overnight period as the shortwave slowly moves eastward. In
addition to the rain, warm and muggy conditions are expected
overnight with lows only dropping off into the mid to upper 60s by
tomorrow morning.

Moisture return will really begin to accelerate tomorrow as dew
points climb well into the upper 60s and lower 70s with isolated
to widely scattered convection developing throughout day. As we
move later into the evening, our focus quickly turns to the strong
cold front bearing down on our region from the northwest as the
longwave trough spills out of the Rockies across the Plains. Expect
a strong line of convection to develop along the cold front as it
advances east of the I-35 corridor into eastern Oklahoma and
north central Texas Saturday evening. The line will move into our
northwest zones near midnight Sunday. We can expect some severe
weather with this line, but the extent of severe weather will
depend on instability which should begin to wane somewhat through
early Sunday morning. At the moment, still believe that a damaging
wind threat with embedded bow echoes will be possible along the
line. Some large hail and isolated tornadoes will be possible, but
that threat will be minimal and likely confined to our extreme
northwest zones. The line of storms should continue to weaken
through the rest of Sunday morning as conditions become less
favorable for sustaining any severe storms, but all of the region
will see beneficial rainfall from this system. On average, 1-2
inches of rainfall can be expected.

Behind the front, a noticeably cooler and drier air mass will
prevail through much of next week with a reinforcing shot of
cooler air by mid week as a dry Canadian front drops south and
clips our region. Temperatures should begin to moderate by late
next week as a weak upper ridge builds in behind the departing
longwave trough. In general, expect near normal to slightly below
normal temperatures for the last full week of October with rain
chances holding off until next Friday with the next major cold
front shifting south into the region. /20/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  68  84  69  73 /  20  40  80  90
MLU  65  84  69  76 /  20  40  60  90
DEQ  64  79  63  69 /  20  40  90  60
TXK  65  82  65  70 /  20  40  90  70
ELD  65  82  68  73 /  20  40  80  90
TYR  68  84  64  72 /  20  40  90  70
GGG  67  84  66  73 /  20  40  90  80
LFK  68  85  70  77 /  20  40  60  90

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

20


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