Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FLUS44 KTSA 212258
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
458 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-221100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
458 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014


THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

POOR VISIBILITY.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...
LIKELY IGNITING THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM.

AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE WARM FRONT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
RAIN SHOWERS WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SATURDAY
MORNING. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
INCREASING MOISTURE COULD ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY... WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES BEING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. RAIN CHANCES FINALLY BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT COULD INCREASE FIRE WEATHER DANGERS OVER PARTS OF
THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY... ESPECIALLY OVER LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVE LITTLE RAINFALL.

NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK...BEHIND THE EXITING DISTURBANCES...LOOKS TO PUSH A SERIES
OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER...AT THIS
TIME A LACK OF MOISTURE COULD KEEP THESE FRONTAL PASSAGES DRY.


WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
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