Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FLUS44 KTSA 162155
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
455 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-171030-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
455 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

...SEVERE STORM AND FLOOD POTENTIAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...LIMITED THREAT OVERNIGHT NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...AFTER 8 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
ONSET...AFTER 8 PM.

AREA AT GREATEST RISK...ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
ONSET...AFTER 8 PM.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
ONSET...AFTER 8 PM.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER INCREASES AFTER 8 PM
THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND AFTER 11 PM ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. TORNADOES...HAIL IN THE GOLFBALL TO BASEBALL
RANGE AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS 70 TO 80 MPH ARE ALL POSSIBLE.

A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING
AS SUPERCELL STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA
CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONGEAL INTO BANDS
AS THEY MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA...HOWEVER IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
DISCRETE CELL OR TWO COULD PERSIST. IF SO...VERY LARGE HAIL TO
BASEBALLS...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH AND STRONG TORNADOES
WOULD BE POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 LATE THIS EVENING. THE MORE
LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT BANDS OF STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SQUALL LINE
TORNADOES. THE GREATEST RISK WILL BE OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WITH
A LESSER RISK DURING THE OVERNIGHT OVER INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY WITH THE BANDS OF STORMS...
AND WILL FALL OVER AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN HIT RECENTLY BY HEAVY
RAINS AND FLOODING. THEREFORE...A FLASH FLOOD RISK EXISTS FOR ALL
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED. EVENT COORDINATORS
SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON FORECASTS THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL WEATHER IMPACTS ON THE MANY OUTDOOR WEEKEND
FESTIVITIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS SHIFTS DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS ON SUNDAY ALONG A STALLING PACIFIC
FRONT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE
HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS DEVELOPS
OVER THE SAME REGION AFFECTED BY TONIGHT`S STORMS...AND IS THE
SAME AREA THAT SAW HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO.

SEVERE POTENTIAL DROPS OFF NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT. MORE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED...AND THIS IS GOING TO CREATE ISSUES IN SOME SPOTS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$








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