Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FLUS44 KTSA 181620
HWOTSA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1120 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-191145-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
1120 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017

...SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL INCREASES THIS EVENING AND CONTINUES
INTO FRIDAY...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight.

TORNADO.
RISK...Limited.
 AREA...North of I-44 and west of highway 75.
ONSET...after 6 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and to a lesser extent Northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...after 6 PM.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
ONSET...after midnight.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
ONSET...after midnight.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
ONSET...ongoing.

DISCUSSION...

An enhanced to moderate risk of severe storms is forecast late
this afternoon and into tonight across Northeast Oklahoma. Very
large hail, in excess of 2 inches in diameter, damaging winds and
isolated tornadoes are possible, with the greatest risk northwest
of Tulsa. A slight risk of severe storms is forecast for Southeast
Oklahoma tonight. Damaging winds and marginally severe hail would
be the main threats.

Multiple rounds of strong to severe storms are expected to develop
over western Oklahoma this afternoon and are expected to move east
toward the region by late this afternoon and into the evening. The
best chance for discrete surface based cells, and thus the highest
tornado and largest hail threat, will be to the northwest of Tulsa
over Osage and Pawnee counties this evening, closer to where surface
based storms are expected to initiate along forcing boundaries by
late this afternoon.

Storms are expected to gradually grow into clusters or lines this
evening as they move into Eastern Oklahoma. Damaging winds and
large hail would be the main threats. An isolated tornado could
occur with any bowing line segments.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY and SATURDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind
                        Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
SUNDAY...No Hazards.
MONDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
WEDNESDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

Another round of strong to severe storms are expected Friday into
early Saturday as upper level system approaches the region.
Storms will fire along the dryline and cold front, becoming more
numerous with time. All modes of severe will be possible,
especially early when storms are more discrete, with storms again
merging into a line as they move east. Severe threat will
transition to more of a wind and heavy rain/flooding threat as
the night goes on. Convection will linger into Saturday while
gradually weakening, across northwest Arkansas and southeast
Oklahoma.

A system dropping through the region in northwest flow will bring
another round of storm potential Monday and Tuesday. A limited
risk for severe weather can be expected with this system.

weather.gov/tulsa Contains additional information.

$$

Lacy


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