Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 241900

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
300 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016

High pressure will continue to provide mostly clear skies and dry
conditions into tonight and Saturday. Lows tonight will generally
range between the mid 50s and low 60s, with highs on Saturday
expected to reach the mid to upper 80s. A cold front will bring
chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms back into the
forecast Sunday into Sunday evening. Otherwise, Sunday will be
hot and humid with highs into the upper 80s. A drier and cooler
pattern will then settle in for much of next week.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Dry/stable anticyclonic flow on the fringe of sfc high pressure
drifting east through the Great Lakes region will continue to
ensure fair/pleasant wx into tonight and Saturday. Highs on
Saturday will be a touch warmer when compared to today as upper
level ridging overspreads in response to vigorous shortwave
propagating east into the Northern High Plains/Canadian Prairies.
This feature will continue eastward into Ontario and the far
northwest Great Lakes by later Sunday/Sunday night forcing a
trailing pre-frontal trough/weak cold front through. Fold over of
ample moisture plume in increasing south-southwest low level flow
pre-frontal may be enough to increase SBCAPE values to 2000 j/kg
or more by Sunday afternoon. Weak low level convergence and this
expected destabilization may generate scattered convection,
although lagging mid level ascent/flow and no cooling/height falls
aloft precludes anything higher than a mid chance PoP at this fcst
range. The lacking deep layer shear and possible capping/warm
profile also suggest little severe threat and limited coverage.
Otherwise, Sunday will feature a more humid day as sfc dewpoints
push to near 70F and sfc ambient temps reach the upper 80s in many
locations in the afternoon.


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016

The trailing mid-level trough axis and secondary front will likely
swing through later Monday into Monday night per last several model
cycles. This will allow for one more hot summer day Monday with
chances for additional convection along secondary front late Monday
afternoon/evening looking unlikely due to what should be a much more
limited moisture supply.

A transition to cooler northwest flow is then expected into the
middle-late week period as upper troughing becomes established
across the Eastern US. Ridging at the surface through much of this
period should result in a mostly dry week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016

VFR with light winds and nothing more than some passing high
cirrus expected on southern fringe of Great Lakes surface high
through the TAF cycle.


.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel

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