Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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257 FXUS61 KBUF 280622 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 222 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An usually deep storm for this time of year over Quebec will circulate cool air across our region through Thursday. The below normal temperatures will be accompanied by widespread later today into Tuesday night with notable less coverage in showers on Wednesday. Day to day warming can then be expected for the end of the week and through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... While the organized shower activity has long since departed the region...scattered showers will be found across parts of western New York through daybreak. The showers from the overnight will become fairly widespread during the day Tuesday...as a robust shortwave (well defined over srn Wisconsin at 06z) will rotate through the base of a longwave trough and cross our forecast area during the afternoon. Have bumped pops to high likely-categorical with the afternoon being quite unsettled. Elevated CAPE of 100-200 j/kg could even allow for a thunderstorm or two. Temperatures for this upcoming day will largely be in the 60s. As the aforementioned shortwave exits to our east tonight...the associated shower activity will gradually wind down. We will remain overcast though with temperatures settling into the low to mid 50s. While the base of the longwave trough will remain centered over our region on Wednesday...shortwaves moving through the deep cyclonic flow should largely track by to our south. A weak secondary cold front will stall across Pennsylvania at that time as well...so the only organized shower activity for our area will be over the western Southern Tier. Otherwise...partial clearing will be found further to the north...particularly east of Lake Ontario. Unfortunately...high temperatures will once again only in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Wednesday night, earlier showers should be out of the area, minus a few sprinkles for the Southern Tier and for areas well southeast of Lake Ontario. Clearing skies from northwest to southeast, along with a mostly northerly flow will bring one of the cooler nights the area has seen in a while with overnight lows dropping to the low to upper 40s. The region will remain situated under broad, positively tilted upper level troughing centered over the Canadian Maritimes Thursday. To the west, a strong, progressive ridge of high pressure will be building eastward over the Great Lakes region. The surface high from this feature will "undercut" the initial upper level troughing to a degree, so while it should be another day of cooler than normal weather, it will be drier across the region compared to Wednesday. There remains a very low chance (15-20%) chance of showers across portions of the North Country Thursday afternoon, which will be further removed from the stabilizing effects of the high to the west. Cool, dry and tranquil weather then expected Thursday night as the upper level trough axis quickly pivots away from the eastern Great Lakes and into New England. Temps will again fall back into the 40s overnight. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A large area of high pressure and stout ridge will build east into the region during the long term period. The surface high and large ridge will be centered over the region from Friday afternoon through Saturday evening, ensuring fair dry weather. There are some timing issues with the next incoming trough and how quickly the large ridge weakens and/or moves east. Due to this, some guidance is bringing in the potential for showers starting on Sunday morning, but with the lack of certainty, left at most sChc POPs. Rain chances increase some on Monday as another weak shortwave moves across the Great Lakes region on the lee side of the building ridge. Temperatures for the period will start out near normal values in the upper 60s and low 70s Friday, though warm to around 5-10 degrees above normal by Sunday and Monday. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MVFR cigs will be found through out the bulk of western and north central New York for the remainder of the overnight. Cigs will further lower to IFR levels in some areas after 08z...mainly across the western Southern Tier and elevated airfields across the Finger Lakes. A wealth of low level moisture circulating around a deep storm over Quebec will then continue to support mainly MVFR cigs for the region on Tuesday. These cigs will be accompanied by an increasing likelihood for showers...and even an isolated thunderstorm or two for the afternoon. MVFR cigs will be common throughout the region for at least the first half of Tuesday night. Outlook... Wednesday...VFR to MVFR cigs with a chance of showers. Thursday through Saturday...VFR. && .MARINE... Moderate to fresh southwesterlies will continue to support small craft advisories through Tuesday for the nearshore waters...while winds should subside enough for the SCA to expire Tuesday morning in BUF Harbor. A weakening pressure gradient will then produce moderate north to northwest breezes Tuesday night and Wednesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Mesonet obs at Woodgate confirm radar estimates with around 4 inches of rain measured Monday from a couple rounds of storms. This is just south of our forecast area, but it is in the Black River basin and will flow to the Boonville gauge. Basin averages are less than that, but coordinated with the NERFC and expect a basin average of around 3 inches to push the Boonville gauge to above action stage into the upcoming day. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ007. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NYZ010-019- 085. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LOZ042>045. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RSH NEAR TERM...RSH SHORT TERM...PP/SW LONG TERM...PP/SW AVIATION...RSH MARINE...RSH HYDROLOGY...Apffel