Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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427 FXUS63 KICT 211133 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 633 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few severe storms possible this afternoon and evening over southeast Kansas. - Continued off-and-on chances for thunderstorms Thursday through Sunday night. - A period of dry weather with less humidity by Monday of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...The potential for a few severe thunderstorms exists generally along and east of the Flint Hills, as potent shortwave energy ejects onto the Great Plains, and a cold front/dryline combo approaches/sharpens from the west. The best forcing looks to remain northeast of the region, which should keep storms more isolated over southeast KS. Consequently, not everyone will see storms. Strong instability coupled with long hodographs will support the potential for severe weather with any storm(s) that can form. Deep layer shear is oriented strongly parallel to the cold front/dryline intersection, and hodograph shape is less than ideal, which should support a mixed storm mode and/or splitting supercells (which would then result in storm interactions and interference). This should cut into the potential for higher-end severe weather, with the primary threats large hail and damaging winds. Can`t completely rule out a tornado given the strong deep layer shear and big CAPE, but the overall tornado threat is low. THURSDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING...After a break Wednesday, model consensus supports the potential for increasing thunderstorm chances Thursday PM, as deep warm advection and moisture transport commence amidst subtle upper forcing. Deep layer shear is only modest, although increasing deep moisture/instability amidst steep lapse rates may support an isolated to widely scattered severe weather threat, primarily consisting of large hail and damaging winds, along with locally heavy rain. FRIDAY-SUNDAY...A strong cold front looks to blast south through the region Thursday night-Friday, shifting Friday afternoon-evening thunderstorm chances east-southeast of the forecast area. GFS and ECMWF progress a shortwave into the region Saturday, with associated northward returning moisture/instability. Model consensus keeps Kansas primarily north of the warm front Saturday, which would tend to keep severe weather potential more marginal and support potential for heavy rainfall through Saturday night. A rather deep shortwave looks to approach from the northwest on the heels of Saturday`s system, which could spark additional thunderstorm chances for Sunday- Sunday night, although moisture/instability may be lacking being so close to the heels of Saturday`s departing system. MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...The Sunday-early Monday system looks to usher in a pattern change across the region through at least mid to late next week, with dry northwest flow aloft. This should support mostly dry weather, with lower dewpoints and seasonable to seasonably cool temperatures. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 623 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 A few hours of MVFR cigs are possible across portions of central and south-central Kansas this morning (mainly for KSLN, KHUT, KICT) through about 15-16Z. VFR conditions are expected to prevail thereafter. Winds are currently around 15 to 25 knots out of the south and southeast. However, a cold front will be sweeping across the region throughout the day, and winds will gradually shift to westerly, then to northerly by this afternoon and evening. A few storms are possible across southeast Kansas, but chances remain low enough to omit from the KCNU TAF for now. Surface winds will gradually decrease to around 10 knots, but will remain northerly tonight through early Wednesday morning. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADK AVIATION...JC