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553
FXUS63 KICT 241749
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1249 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1112 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018

Latest visible satellite shows a subtle Meso Convectively induced
vort (MCV) drifting over south central KS at this time, remnants from
last nights mini complex of storms over SW KS.  Latest short range
models suggest that this MCV will drift slowly across southern KS
this afternoon, and probably be the focus for another round of hit
or miss diurnally driven convection for the afternoon and early
evening hours, as the weak cap erodes with modestly unstable airmass
over the region. Latest SPC RAP data shows a bullseyes of higher
precipitable water (PW) values over south central KS, and think
under this axis of higher PW values is where the storms will
develop. Latest grids and forecast have this covered fairly well,
but will not increase pops until storms actually begin to develop or
visible satellite shows cumulus bubbling up.

Think the storms over south central KS will be diurnally driven and
wane some late this evening.  Then focus will shift to the northwest
of the forecast area, where expected strong/severe convection over
the highs plains of either SW Neb or NW KS will congeal into some
sort of forward propagating complex of storms, that will drop E-SE
into central KS late this evening and overnight.

Ketcham

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018

A summer-like pattern is expected to continue the next several
days, characteristic of above normal temperatures, relatively high
dewpoints/humidity, and periodic thunderstorm chances. Given the
relatively weak flow and forcing aloft, predicting the timing,
location and coverage of these storm chances will be challenging.
Additionally, the overall potential for widespread severe weather
is low given the relatively weak flow/forcing.

Today...Per short-term guidance and latest observational trends,
a mid-level disturbance induced by a decaying thunderstorm complex
currently situated off to the southwest will drift east/northeast
across the region, likely supporting isolated to widely scattered
hit-or-miss thunderstorms from late this morning through the
early evening. Thinking the greatest focus will be generally the
eastern half of KS. Another possible hit-or-miss storm focus today
will be over southeast KS amidst modest mid- level moisture and
an unstable & uncapped airmass. Widespread severe weather is not
expected given the weak flow aloft, although cannot rule a few
strong to severe storms given strong instability.

This evening-tonight...Fairly strong signal from most models
supporting a forward propagating thunderstorm complex moving
east/southeast across portions of Nebraska and generally the
northern half of KS. This makes sense given shortwave energy
currently across the Central Rockies progressing east, along with
decent isentropic ascent along east/northeast fringe of warmer
temperatures aloft. Thinking the greatest threat for severe
weather will be this evening across mainly NW KS, although
isolated severe wind gusts are possible as far east as central and
east-central KS toward midnight with this potential forward
propagating system.

Friday-Saturday night...Friday`s thunderstorm chances will be
heavily tied to the placement of outflow boundaries laid down by
tonight`s storms, which will probably be somewhere across southern
KS and OK. Upper ridge building in from the west should tend to
suppress thunderstorm development by Saturday. Temperature-wise,
above normal atmospheric thickness will support daytime readings
climbing into the 90s for many areas Fri and Sat.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018

Sunday-Wednesday...Model and ensemble consensus supports shifting
the mid/upper ridge east of the region by early next week, with a
longwave trough continuing to take shape across the western
CONUS. This will allow periodic pieces of shortwave energy to
eject northeast over Mid-America for a return to off- and-on
thunderstorm chances. Modest flow aloft does nudge east some,
which would favor a possible uptick in severe weather potential,
especially across the western half of KS closest to stronger
mid/upper flow. Above normal temperatures mostly in the 90s look
to continue through at least mid- late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

A rather complicated aviation forecast, when it comes to convective
chances for the next 24 hours.  first a weak impulse over south
central KS will continue to drift slowly E-NE for the afternoon
hours, which may lead to scattered hit or miss convection across
south central and possible SE KS for the afternoon hours.  (already
seeing some scattered showers across south central KS).  think with
diurnal heating think hit or miss storms will continue, so will go
with a VCTS for most of the srn KS Taf sites for the afternoon into
the early evening hours.

Next concern will be the chances of strong/severe convection over NW
KS or SW Neb dropping E-SE into central KS for the late evening and
overnight hours. Some uncertainty on the track of the complex,
possibly seeing this complex drop SE across central KS and south
central KS tonight. Could see some gusty outflow winds and MVFR
vsbys, as this complex moves in, but will go with just VCTS for the
complex for now, until location of this complex can be better
defined.

Ketcham

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018

Long-range model and ensemble output in concert with Climate
Prediction Center outlooks support continued above normal
temperatures through at least the first week of June, if not
longer.

Also, May 2018 is shaping up to be one of the warmest May`s on
record across the region. Through the 23rd, Wichita is ranked 2nd
all-time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    89  68  92  67 /  70  30  20  30
Hutchinson      88  68  92  65 /  30  40  10  20
Newton          88  68  90  66 /  30  40  20  20
ElDorado        87  68  89  66 /  50  40  20  30
Winfield-KWLD   88  68  91  66 /  50  20  20  30
Russell         90  65  92  63 /  20  50  10  10
Great Bend      89  65  91  63 /  20  50  10  20
Salina          90  68  92  66 /  20  50  10  20
McPherson       89  68  91  65 /  30  50  10  20
Coffeyville     86  67  87  67 /  30  20  20  30
Chanute         85  67  87  66 /  30  30  30  30
Iola            85  67  86  66 /  30  40  40  30
Parsons-KPPF    86  68  87  67 /  30  20  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Ketcham
SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...Ketcham
CLIMATE...ADK