


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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929 FXUS63 KICT 100753 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 253 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A prolonged active pattern thunderstorm-wise expected, with off-and-on thunderstorm chances this evening through next Wednesday night. A few strong to severe thunderstorms possible each episode, along with heavy rainfall. - Above average temperatures today-Friday, a modest cool down this weekend, warming trend Monday-Tuesday of next week, with a possible strong cold front again by next Wednesday-Thursday knocking temperatures back to below average values. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 252 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 PRECIPITATION: TODAY-TONIGHT...Thinking the MCS currently progressing southeast across Nebraska and far northern Kansas should remain mostly northeast of the forecast area this morning, along the eastern fringe of a stout EML advancing slowly east across Mid-America. Otherwise, a potent shortwave approaching from the west is expected to initiate scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon across the western High Plains in vicinity of a lee trough. This activity should then track east-southeast into the forecast area this evening-tonight. Strong instability, hefty DCAPE, and slightly better deep layer shear should support a marginally severe hail and damaging downburst wind threat, especially from central and north- central KS on west-northwest. Given the relatively warm mid-level temperatures and associated capping issues, activity may tend to struggle to survive much further east then roughly I-135. FRIDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT...A strong cold front approaching from the north will likely be the focus for scattered thunderstorms Friday afternoon-evening-night across the region. As has been the case, strong instability, hefty DCAPE, and marginal shear will support a threat of marginally severe hail, damaging downburst winds, and pockets of heavy rainfall with the strongest activity. Strong-severe threat should tend to wane with time as the evening progresses. THIS WEEKEND-MID NEXT WEEK...The unsettled weather pattern continues, with off-and-on shower/thunderstorm chances continuing in vicinity of a stalled frontal zone amidst additional upper energy approaching from the west. Thinking chances this weekend will be best over southern KS and points south. As we head into Monday- Tuesday, the frontal zone washes out, although subtle mid-upper perturbations amidst increasing precipitable waters should support a continued spotty shower/storm threat. Moving forward from Tuesday night through Wednesday night, deterministic consensus progresses a strong cold front into the region, supporting additional storm chances. TEMPERATURES: A building upper ridge along with an approaching cold front will support above average temperatures today and Friday, reaching the 90s to near 100 degrees, warmest over north-central KS. Thereafter, a cold front will bring a weak to modest cool down this weekend back into the 80s to near 90 degrees. With deterministic and ensemble consensus keeping the upper ridge at bay, along with periodic thunderstorm chances, there is a low chance for a prolonged period of intense above average summer heat the next 7-10 days. A significant cool down is looking more probable by Wednesday-Thursday of next week, as deterministic consensus progresses a strong cold front south into the region. Could be looking at overnight lows in the low-mid 60s, and afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s...about 10 degrees below mid-July averages. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1218 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 VFR conditions generally expected through much of the forecast period. Breezy south-southeasterly winds overnight will become southerly and increase after 15Z with gusts between 20-30kts through the afternoon and evening hours. Model guidance is suggesting a line of storms impacting north-central Kansas sites towards the very end of the forecast period, though its too early to narrow down site specific impacts. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADK AVIATION...AMD