Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
766 FXUS64 KMAF 022317 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 617 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 One more round of strong to severe thunderstorms is possible today, and then we dry out and the heat cranks back up across the region. This afternoon, an outflow boundary associated with earlier convection north of the area continues to sag southward, with new convection developing off the Caprock and across the Red River Valley. This feature may aid in the development of thunderstorms over the northeastern Permian Basin over the next few hours, though there remains a bit of uncertainty in this outcome as the outflow`s progression slows and forcing associated with its western periphery wanes somewhat. Another feature that could serve as a focus for thunderstorm development today is the dryline, currently drifting slowly eastward across the area. And, while flow aloft remains fairly weak and quasi-zonal, a subtle shortwave evident on water vapor imagery over eastern New Mexico may provide an enhancement to ascent. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty in how storms will pan out, with CAMs largely in agreement that storms will be isolated, but in disagreement regarding location. Overall, there may be a storm or two that manages to develop off of the Davis and Glass Mountains into Pecos County, and another potential focus across the northern Permian Basin in closer proximity to the aforementioned outflow boundary and shortwave. Regardless, any storm that develops today will have the potential to become severe, with large to very large hail the primary concern given steep midlevel lapse rates, along with damaging wind and locally heavy rain. Storms will move eastward, exiting the area late evening. Aside from storm potential, temperatures today are on target to top out in the 90s for most, with 100s through portions of the river valleys. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for the Chinati Mountains, Davis Mountains and Foothills, and Brewster County, with the hottest temperatures around 110F focused along the Rio Grande in the Big Bend. Tonight will be a quiet, warm night as moisture remains elevated, with lows 2-5 degrees above normal in the lower to middle 60s west to middle 70s east and along the Rio Grande. Monday will be even hotter with lower 100s becoming more widespread, and additional Heat Advisories expected for the same areas as today, possibly expanding across the Pecos Valley and Stockton Plateau. After an active several days storm-wise, Monday will finally provide a reprieve, with dry conditions areawide. JP && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Dry and hot describes much of the long term as Tuesday through Thursday of this week will be the hottest stretch of the year so far. Highs each day reach into the upper 90s to low 100s for most with only the higher terrain "only" reaching into the low to mid 90s. Much of Big Bend will be scorching as portions of the area touch the 110s. The heat will stick around due to a broad ridge that takes hold over the western US and begin to move near West Texas and southeast New Mexico. Shortwave troughs undercut the ridge (sounds a little like monsoon season?) and lead to isolated or scattered storms for the end of the coming week. Lowered PoPs slightly to reflect some uncertainty for both the timing and possible location of storms that far out. With the troughs pushing into the area, the heat takes a bit of a break as temperatures drop near normal in the 90s for most. -Stickney && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 615 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 A few storms remain possible at FST and MAF this evening. Any storms could produce gusty, erratic winds, hail and heavy rain, and frequent lightning. Otherwise, VFR VIS and CIGs prevail throughout TAF period. Winds decrease as storms move out of area 02Z-03Z, with winds backing from southwesterly to southerly at CNM, HOB, and INK, but remaining southeasterly at the other terminals. Winds become westerly 09Z-13Z at CNM and PEQ, and 15Z-17Z at other terminals. Gusty winds develop by 15Z-17Z into end of period, gustiest over SE NM plains into western and central Permian Basin. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 73 102 69 104 / 20 0 0 0 Carlsbad 66 100 70 103 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 74 103 72 105 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 71 103 70 104 / 10 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 66 91 66 92 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 63 100 63 101 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 60 95 58 95 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 72 101 68 103 / 10 0 0 0 Odessa 71 101 69 103 / 10 0 0 0 Wink 66 105 66 105 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Central Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Lower Brewster County. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...84 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...94