Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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404 FXUS64 KMAF 240404 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1104 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 139 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Another unseasonably hot day is underway across Southeast New Mexico and West Texas, with highs on track to top out in the upper 80s and lower 90s in the mountains, middle to upper 90s most other locations, and lower 100s along portions of the Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys. A Heat Advisory remains in effect until early this evening for the mountains of Southwest Texas and Terrell and Brewster Counties, with the hottest temperatures around 110F expected along the Rio Grande in the Big Bend. In addition to the heat, very dry conditions also persist region-wide, and a Red Flag Warning for critical fire weather conditions remains in effect for western portions of the area. More on the Fire Weather risk can be found in the Fire Weather Discussion below. While much of the area will be sunny, hot, and dry today, there`s also potential for a quick round of thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly across the Western Low Rolling Plains. The downsloping westerly surface flow that`s allowing temperatures to soar is also acting to mix the dryline eastward, with some CAMs indicating a low (10-20%) chance for thunderstorms to develop over Mitchell and Scurry counties this afternoon. While activity would quickly move eastward, if storms are able to mature, large hail and damaging winds would be the primary concerns. After the hot day today, another mild night is ahead tonight, with lows progged to drop into the 60s for most, with 50s across northwestern and mountain areas, and lower 70s across portions of the Stockton Plateau and Rio Grande Valley. Toward Friday morning, a weak cold front will sag southward into the area, resulting in a northwesterly to northerly wind shift, especially for locations north of I-10. While this front will provide some reprieve from the heat, it will only be a few degrees, with highs still expected to reach into the 90s for most, and 100s along the Rio Grande. Fortunately, the cooldown looks to be enough to avoid another round of heat headlines, at least for Friday, though temperatures will still be hot, and those with outdoor plans will need to prepare accordingly to protect themselves from heat-related illnesses. Lows Friday night follow the "cooling" trend, bottoming out in the 50s and 60s across the area. JP && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 139 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 - The heat is on! - Some relief on Tuesday and Wednesday with isolated to scattered thunderstorms. The medium to long-range forecast will be characterized by short wave ridging aloft. Westerly winds at the surface through the mid levels of the atmosphere will lead to compressional warming across the southern High Plains, thus this Memorial Day weekend forecast can indeed be considered a hot mess! Temperatures will hit or exceed the century mark across the lowlands (and in the 110-115F range at Rio Grande Village in Big Bend National Park) while temperatures in the mountains will be in the upper 80s to the mid 90s. Therefore, Heat Advisories may be needed with future forecasts for Sunday and Monday across the mountains and perhaps portions of Brewster County should the trends of increased thickness ridging continue per latest dProg/dt trends and the majority of clusters across the ensemble suite. We`ll catch some relief Monday as a weak cold front/augmented outflow boundary sags south across the southern High Plains. An increase in low-level moisture and upslope flow behind the boundary Tuesday and Wednesday should be sufficient to gin up isolated to scattered mainly diurnally-driven convection each day. Precipitable water values increase to 2-3 cm Tuesday per the 00Z cluster ensemble mean, and given the spotty areas of convection, some lucky areas could see considerable precipitation while those less fortunate could see none. Temperatures fall as well Tuesday and Wednesday, back near climatological normals for this time of year. Beyond Wednesday, a pattern shift may be in the offing, which would lead to an increased chance for precipitation as we head into next weekend. As always, stay tuned. -bc && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1102 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Light westerly winds will prevail, with a weak cold front moving into the area late Friday, shifting surface flow to light easterly after sundown. Convective temps are too high for cu development. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 139 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 The combination of a very dry air mass and low RH readings (in the single digits west of 102 degrees W) will cook fuels Friday; however, 20-foot winds will be on the light side. Mixing over the mountains may result in 20-foot winds exceeding 20 mph, so this will bear watching. Overnight recovery tonight and Friday night will range from poor from southeastern New Mexico south to the Big Bend ranging to fair to good across the eastern Permian Basin. Fire weather concerns ramp up Saturday and Sunday from southeastern New Mexico down through the Guadalupes as 20-foot winds increase and temperatures become warmer. ERC values are forecast to be critically extreme across these areas, and in fact the low-level thermal ridge aligns with winds such that RFTI values in the 6 to 8 range are forecast for southeastern New Mexico and into the northwestern Permian Basin Saturday afternoon. At a minimum, a Fire Weather Watch may be needed as early as tonight for these areas. In any case, we`ll let the current Red Flag Warning drop off the table before issuing highlights for Saturday when the fire weather concerns are greatest. Like tonight and Friday night, overnight RH recovery will be poor across southeastern New Mexico Saturday and Sunday nights, with fair to very good recovery expected elsewhere. With the passage of the weak cold front/augmented outflow boundary Monday, increasing low-level moisture and a chance for wetting rains Tuesday and Wednesday are a good thing. However, the potential for dry lightning strikes over the Davis Mountains may pose IA concerns where wetting rains have not fallen in quite some time. We`ll have to watch the patterns closely as we get closer to next weekend to see whether the trend of temperatures closer to normal and a chance for wetting rains continue. -bc && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 61 95 60 100 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 63 95 63 96 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 69 102 69 106 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 66 98 63 103 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 61 85 62 86 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 60 92 57 94 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 51 90 53 94 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 63 95 61 99 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 65 95 62 98 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 61 98 60 102 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...84 LONG TERM....70 AVIATION...44