Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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224 FXUS64 KOHX 190506 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1206 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 851 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Upper level troughing influences will continue shifting eastward, thus shower chances will continue to diminish over next few hours, with shower and/or thunderstorm chances ending by midnight. Current regional temperature trends continue to support overnight forecasted lows. Tweaked hourly temperature, dewpoint, wind speed/direction, and sky condition grids blending them with previously forecasted hourly gridded late evening values. With decreasing cloudiness and light north to calm winds expected, and continued ample low level moisture present across mid state region, patchy fog formation will be possible remainder of this evening and especially as overnight hours progress. Remainder of forecast continues to be on track. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 1132 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Showers and storms have moved into the southwestern part of the CWA over the last hour with more development further north. Looking at obs, a weak mesolow is centered near the TN/MS border. CAMS have the mesolow moving east through the afternoon hours. The focus of showers and storms should be in the south this afternoon with more scattered activity along and north of I-40. A couple strong storms are possible mainly south of I-40 through the afternoon. Currently instability values are around 600-850 J/kg of MLCAPE with the CAMs increasing those values to 1200-1400 J/kg this afternoon ahead of the mesolow in the south. Shear is outracing the lift, so any tall updrafts will not be able to sustain themselves. Some small hail will be possible along with some gusty winds in the strongest cells. Heavy rain will also be possible across the area today especially in the south where PWAT values will be around 1.4-1.6". MRMS 1 hr QPF accumulations show some pockets of 1-2" over Wayne County recently. These types of rain amounts will be possible farther east. As we lose diurnal influences and the 500 mb trough axis slides east, shower coverage will decrease after 00z. Sky coverage will decrease west of the plateau with very light north wind. Patches of fog could develop after midnight. Once we scour out any fog Sunday morning, temperatures will be on the increase. Upper ridging will build in from the west and highs should top out in the 80s across the area. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through next Saturday) Issued at 1132 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 The start of the extended forecast will see a continuation of warmer temperatures with highs in the mid to upper 80s from Monday through Wednesday. A cold front will try to approach the Mid South on Wednesday but will lose its eastern momentum as the parent low lifts out of the central plains toward Ontario. The surface boundary will get close enough for shower and storm chances to be reintroduced Wednesday night but more so on Thursday. The surface front looks like it will linger in vicinity of the area which will keep rain chances elevated on Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1204 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Patchy fog is developing across the area and that will continue as we head through the overnight. The fog will be most widespread for areas to the west and south of Nashville. MVFR to LIFR in the fog. Clear skies and VFR conditions after 13z. Winds light overnight becoming northerly under 6 knots tomorrow. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 86 64 88 66 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 85 62 87 65 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 80 57 80 60 / 10 0 0 0 Columbia 85 61 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 81 60 82 62 / 0 0 0 0 Jamestown 80 57 82 60 / 0 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 84 62 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 85 61 86 63 / 0 0 0 0 Waverly 85 62 87 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......JB Wright SHORT TERM...Reagan LONG TERM....Reagan AVIATION.....Mueller