Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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713 FXUS65 KPUB 051856 CCA AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1256 PM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry with above normal but below record temperatures expected. - Hot temperatures continue Thursday and Friday, with isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms expected each day, especially Friday. - Rain showers and thunderstorms increase in coverage for the weekend and early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 344 AM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Upper ridge translates in from the west today which will decrease the flow aloft and lead to warmer temperatures across all of southern CO. Lack of moisture will keep the forecast dry district- wide and temperatures should climb around 10 degrees above climatological normals. Readings look to stay a few degrees below record highs for this day which are: COS 94 in 2020 PUB 101 in 2020 ALS 90 in 2010 Dry weather and clear skies continue into this evening. Once again, went closer to guidance for the colder valley spots where the dry airmass under clear skies should allow for sufficient radiational cooling to drop temperatures below model blends. -KT && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 344 AM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Thursday - Friday: For the later part of the week, relatively quiet weather is anticipated, though a trend towards more active is expected Friday. Synoptically, northwest flow will continue over south central and southeastern Colorado. Forcing will remain rather minor with this pattern, though weak orographic forcing will persist. Along with that, moisture return will start to take place Thursday and Friday, though trends over the past day or so in model guidance has been to keep more appreciable moisture further east. Given the orographic forcing, and modest uptick in moisture, isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are expected each day, mostly along the mountains, though chances become more widespread across the region Friday. Along with that, given the slight rise in moisture and associated instability, a strong, to possibly severe, thunderstorm or two is possible, especially Friday which will have richer moisture across the far eastern plains. With all of that said though, any showers and thunderstorms present will lessen in coverage during the evening and overnight hours. As for temperatures, the heat continues. Much of the area will warm well above seasonal values for early June. A modest cold front is anticipated to drop southward Friday, but is expected push over the area during the late evening timeframe, bringing no relief from the heat Friday afternoon. Saturday - Tuesday: For the remainder of the long term period, a wetter pattern is anticipated. Northwest flow will prevail over south central and southeastern Colorado, and moisture return will continue over the area, especially the eastern plains. While broader forcing will continue to remain relatively light, surface upsloping and orographic forcing, along with the moisture in place, will allow for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day, especially along and east of the I-25 corridor. Along with that, there will still be a concern for strong to severe storms during this period, though mostly Saturday and Sunday, when the the overlap of better shear and moisture/instability is expected. Rain shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected to be highest during the afternoon and early evening hours, when any instability is highest. Looking at temperatures, a cool down is in store. Much of the region will drop back down to around seasonal values. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1010 AM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024 VFR conditions for all three terminals for the next 24 hours. Winds will generally be light at less than 12 kts and diurnally driven. Mozley && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KT LONG TERM...SIMCOE AVIATION...MOZLEY