Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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410 FXUS64 KEPZ 041740 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1140 AM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 449 AM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Today will be another very warm and mostly sunny day with high temperatures running a few degrees above average. We will be even hotter on Wednesday and Thursday with high temperatures running 5 to 10 degrees above average. High temperatures on Thursday will be near 105 degrees or a little above for most lowland locations. A heat advisory is in effect for Wednesday and Thursday. We will see a slight chance for rain Thursday evening through the weekend. High temperatures for Friday through Sunday will continue to run around 5 to 7 degrees above seasonal averages. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 449 AM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024 We will have another day of very warm temperatures and very dry RH`s. A northwest flow aloft will keep us high and dry with only some occasional high clouds. Then starting on Wednesday we will see an upper level ridge begin to build into the region. This ridge may be around for the next couple of weeks, which could lead to an extended period of hot weather. High temperatures on Wednesday will run 5 to 7 degrees above average and with the upper level ridge centered right over southern New Mexico on Thursday we will see high temperatures running 5 to 10 degrees above average. Lowland high temperatures will be near or a little above 105 degrees for both Wednesday and Thursday so a Heat Advisory is in effect for those two days for southern Dona Ana County, El Paso County and the Rio Grande Valley of Hudspeth County. With the upper level ridge sitting over the region it will slow the westerly winds aloft and allow some moisture to slip into the area from the south and east. The NBM model seems to be over doing the rain chances each day for Thursday through Sunday, so I have backed those rain chances off some. With only a meager moisture influx, we will still be pretty dry near the surface. Thunderstorms that develop in a dry environment have the possibility of having some strong outflow winds. If thunderstorms do pop up on during the afternoons of Thursday through Sunday those storms could produce some strong wind gusts that could travel a fair distance from the parent storms. For Friday and through the start of next week the high temperatures will depend a lot on clouds and rain chances. Right now, as I mentioned, I backed some of the rain chances lower, so I would think a warmer pattern would be the result. The NBM still tries to lower high temperatures for Friday, but if the drier solution trend continues we may need to bump high temperatures higher. Right now the forecast has high temperatures for Friday through Sunday near or a little above 100 in the lowlands which is in the 50% range of occurrence, but those values may need to be trended a few degrees warmer, closer to the 75% or 90% values if the drier solution plays out. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1124 AM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the period across all of the TAF sites with CIG FEW-BKN250. The winds will be generally light to breezy (8 to 14 kts) with occasional gusts of up to 24 kts and out from the between the west and west southwest through 02Z Wednesday at most of the sites except at KELP. Gusty winds at KELP will continue at least until 07Z Wednesday. The winds would become less gusty thereafter. There will be no reduction in the VSBY across the runways. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 449 AM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024 The winds today should be a little lower than we have seen the last couple of afternoons, but min RH`s are still very low. On Wednesday and Thursday, the heat will be on, with high temperatures running 5 to 10 degrees above average. Min RH`s will still be low with 5 to 10% reading in the lowlands and readings of 10 to 20% in area mountains. For Friday and into the weekend, we will have a slight chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Min RH`s will still be near 10% in the lowlands and range from 15 to 30% in area mountains. Any thunderstorms that do develop will be capable of producing strong and gusty outflow winds and could produce some dry lightning due to the lack of moisture near the surface. Vent rates over the next couple of days will range from very good to excellent. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 100 74 104 77 / 0 0 0 10 Sierra Blanca 92 67 97 70 / 0 0 0 10 Las Cruces 99 69 103 71 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 96 64 100 68 / 0 0 10 0 Cloudcroft 74 53 77 54 / 0 0 20 10 Truth or Consequences 96 69 100 71 / 0 0 0 10 Silver City 88 61 93 66 / 0 0 10 10 Deming 96 63 102 66 / 0 0 0 10 Lordsburg 94 62 100 66 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 97 72 101 75 / 0 0 0 10 Dell City 99 64 100 67 / 0 0 10 10 Fort Hancock 99 65 104 69 / 0 0 0 10 Loma Linda 91 67 95 71 / 0 0 0 10 Fabens 99 69 104 71 / 0 0 0 10 Santa Teresa 96 66 100 69 / 0 0 0 10 White Sands HQ 96 74 101 76 / 0 0 0 10 Jornada Range 96 62 100 66 / 0 0 0 10 Hatch 98 64 102 66 / 0 0 0 10 Columbus 96 69 101 71 / 0 0 0 10 Orogrande 95 66 99 70 / 0 0 10 10 Mayhill 87 59 87 58 / 0 0 30 10 Mescalero 85 56 88 58 / 0 0 20 10 Timberon 83 56 86 57 / 0 0 20 10 Winston 89 60 92 61 / 0 10 10 10 Hillsboro 94 67 97 68 / 0 0 10 10 Spaceport 95 61 100 63 / 0 0 0 10 Lake Roberts 90 58 94 62 / 0 0 10 10 Hurley 91 60 97 63 / 0 0 0 10 Cliff 96 59 102 63 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 91 62 96 66 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 91 64 95 66 / 0 0 0 10 Animas 94 61 100 66 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 94 63 100 67 / 0 0 0 10 Antelope Wells 92 61 99 66 / 0 0 0 10 Cloverdale 87 61 94 66 / 0 0 0 10 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from 9 AM Wednesday to 9 PM MDT Thursday for TXZ418-419-423-424. NM...Heat Advisory from 9 AM Wednesday to 9 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ411. && $$ FORECASTER...36-Texeira