Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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102 FXUS63 KICT 261710 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1210 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Few storms this afternoon across central and northeast KS. - Dry and warm for Memorial Day. - Periodic storm chances increasing Wed night and continuing through at least Fri. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 307 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Water vapor imagery shows one upper impulse lifting into the Mid Mississippi Valley with another circulation about to move out of the Central Rockies. Last but not least, another piece of energy is located over the Northern Rockies. At the surface, low pressure is situated across south central KS with a trough from Eastern Nebraska into the low over central KS. Storms continue over northeast KS into the Ozarks where an impressive low level jet is providing strong 850mb moisture transport. Better low level jet focus will shift east this morning as 850mb flow starts to veer. So may continue to see some activity over far southeast KS around sunrise but will quickly move off into southern MO. Currently expecting some iso- sct showers and storms this afternoon across northeast and central KS as the last upper impulse slides across the area. While mid and upper flow will not be particularly strong, there should be around 1000-1500J/CAPE by this afternoon. This activity will be strongly diurnally driven. The impulse over the Northern Rockies will pass over the Northern Plains Mon morning as a more robust upper low sinks south across Eastern Manitoba. This will bring northwest flow over the central Plains for Monday setting up dry and warm conditions. For Tue, upper troughing will encompass the Upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes region with shortwave troughing moving into the Pacific Northwest. Scattered shower and storm chances will increase for Tue night as a mid level baroclinc zone sets up with some decent 700mb moisture transport along it. For mid to late week, a broad area of upper troughing will encompass the Western CONUS with the main upper trough tracking from the Northern Intermountain into the Northern Rockies. Medium range models agree on a series of weak upper perturbations lifting out of the Desert Southwest and across the Southern Plains for Wed night through at least Fri. While upper flow is fairly weak, there will be plenty of moisture available as the Gulf remains open. So while chances for organized severe storms appears low, we should see storm chances linger through late week with isolated heavy rain the main threat. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 VFR conditions and light winds are expected for this TAF period. There may be some VFR CIGs in the region for the first few hours of the TAF period, primarily in the KICT and KCNU areas. This is expected to clear by 00Z tonight. Winds will remain light and from the north but have some brief gusts through the mid to late afternoon. By sunset, winds are expected to become variable for most of the remaining TAF period. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RBL AVIATION...ELM