012
FXUS63 KPAH 031017
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
517 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An unsettled weather pattern is forecast to remain in place
  through through mid week, resulting in on and off chances of
  showers and storms through Wednesday.

- The storms on Monday will be capable of producing very heavy
  downpours, gusty winds and small hail. Localized flooding will
  also be possible.

- High temperatures are expected to trend warmer, reaching the
  mid to upper 80s today through Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

A shortwave is progged to shift from near the Oklahoma Panhandle
east or east southeastward across Arkansas this afternoon into this
evening. Placement in the exact track of the shortwave is less than
certain at this time; however, it is expected to be at least close
enough to help touch off scattered showers and storms across SEMO
into western KY and possibly southern IL. As the shortwave arrives,
expect instability to increase to around 2000-3000 J/kg. Deep layer
wind shear is expected to be lacking at only 15 to 20 kts. The lack
of shear would lead to a better chance of seeing pulse-type
thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening with very heavy rainfall,
gusty winds and hail being the main threats. Storm motion would also
be fairly slow increasing the flooding threat. PWAT values jump up
to around 1.5 to 2 inches by this afternoon, which will also lead to
at least a localized flash flooding potential. Part of the area is
under a Marginal Risk of severe for late this afternoon/evening,
mainly SEMO, southern IL and far west KY.

Another shortwave is progged to pass through or near the area during
the day Tuesday, bringing another chance for showers and storms.
Again, timing isn`t the greatest with this feature, so stuck with
the scattered shower and storm wording in the 40-50% range for
probability of precipitation. Instability is a bit lower with that
shortwave (1000-2000 J/kg) and shear is expected to be 20kts or
less. Heavy rain and lightning will both be a possibility with the
system, but the severe threat looks even lower for Tuesday.

Yet another system and more widespread chances for showers and
storms will arrive Tuesday night into Wednesday as a cold front
approaches and passes through the area from the west. The latest
guidance continues to have frontal passage occurring late Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning. Thunderstorms will be likely along and
ahead of the front along with heavy downpours, but widespread severe
weather does not appear likely at this time with weak shear and
instability around 1000 J/kg.

Drier conditions will return for the end of the week
(Thursday/Friday) as high pressure builds back into the region. The
next chance of precipitation may arrive for the weekend, but there
are many differences in the guidance that far out!

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 514 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Quiet weather with fairly light winds expected through this
morning with some high clouds in place. Otherwise, the next
disturbance will arrive late this afternoon into this evening,
bringing the next chance for showers and thunderstorms. The best
chance will be over the western TAF sites (CGI/MVN/PAH) with a
bit lower confidence at EVV/OWB. Confidence in timing and
coverage of any precipitation/storms remains fairly low.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DW
DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...KC