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000
FXUS63 KPAH 241150
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
650 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 650 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Updated aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

The upper low that produced the rain across the region over the
past couple of days will shift slowly east along the Kentucky-
Tennessee border today. It`s presence will still be noticed with
ample low level clouds in the cool northerly flow on its west
side. Widely scattered showers also cannot be ruled out just about
anywhere, particularly from late morning into the afternoon.
Temperatures today will likely struggle to reach the lower to mid
60s with persistent cloud cover over a good part of the area.
Partial clearing west of the Mississippi River this afternoon may
give temperatures there a boost into the upper 60s.

After a slight chance of lingering showers across southwest
Indiana and the Kentucky Pennyrile this evening, dry conditions
are forecast late tonight into midday Wednesday. An upper low
entering the Northern Plains today will reach southeast Kansas
late Wednesday, then pivot east across the Lower Mississippi and
Tennessee Valleys on Thursday. This will result in a small chance
of showers across mainly southeast Missouri and adjacent portions
of extreme southern Illinois and far western Kentucky late
Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. Dry weather returns
Thursday and Thursday night, although a few showers may linger
over far southern portions of the forecast area early Thursday
morning if the GFS is correct. The current forecast favors the
drier NAM and ECWMF.

Temperatures are forecast to remain mild through the period.
Consensus guidance places highs in the mid to upper 60s both
Wednesday and Thursday. Lows should cool from around 50 degrees
tonight back into the 40s Wednesday and Thursday nights.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

A rather abrupt shift in the upper-level pattern is expected to
occur this weekend. The persistent troughing over the eastern half
of the conus is forecast to be replaced by a 500 mb ridge by early
next week. This has been well-advertised by the ensemble means of
the ecmwf, gfs, and Canadian models over the past couple of days.

On Friday, the last in a long series of 500 mb shortwaves will swing
eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This high-amplitude
trough will be accompanied by a cold front. Precipitation chances
will be limited by poor moisture recovery ahead of the front. There
may be enough mid-level lift and moisture for some shower activity.
Pops will be in the 20 to 30 percent range for Friday. Highs will be
in the 60s with the clouds and possible showers.

The weekend will feature sunny pleasant days and clear chilly
nights. A large surface high will move east across the lower Ohio
Valley on Saturday afternoon and evening. The very dry air mass and
light winds will be associated with large diurnal temp swings around
30 degrees. Afternoon highs will generally be around 70 on Saturday,
and 70 to 75 Sunday. Overnight lows are forecast to be in the lower
40s Fri night and mid 40s Sat night. Given the dry air and light
winds, some upper 30s seem plausible.

As the surface high crosses the southeastern states on Monday,
southerly return flow over our region will boost high temps well
into the 70s. The air mass is forecast to remain dry as the 500 mb
ridge axis moves over the Ohio Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 650 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Ceilings have been all over the place early this morning, but are
generally ranging from high end IFR to low end MVFR. A trend towards
VFR is expected across the western half of the area (KCGI/KPAH) by
early afternoon. Meanwhile, MVFR conditions are likely to stick
around through much of the day in the eastern half (KEVV/KOWB).
Patchy early morning fog should dissipate across the entire area by
mid morning. Widely scattered showers will dot the radar scope
today, with somewhat better coverage expected in the eastern half of
the area in closer proximity to the upper low. The shower activity
should diminish from west to east during the late afternoon and
early evening hours. North winds around 10 knots today will subside
to around 5 knots tonight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...RJP