Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 141903
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
203 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

There will continue to be a tropically connected train of rainfall
streaming into/across our eastern third of the FA thru the
overnight hours, as the upper Low spins toward us from the west.
Upwards to 1-2 inches may still fall in our farthest eastern
counties (see ESF). The occluding surface features will move east
of the FA by tmrw morning, and the upper Low will make its pass
about 12-18 hours after that. Til then, anticipate lingering
clouds/showers, wind. After that, cooler/drier air works
in/gradually down/throughout the column. Sunday dew points drop
into the 30s with 20s perched to our west. Sunday night lows,
despite lingering cloud and wind that will preclude widespread
frost, drop to near freezing. Monday will be 40s/50s for highs
despite more earnest return of sunshine, and we see those dew
points in the 20s work in. Lows Mon night will again near
freezing, across our north, where diminishing wind/cloud make
frost most likely, and a potential future headline.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

Above normal confidence in much of the extended forecast with
tranquil weather expected for much of this period.

On Tuesday morning, upper level ridging is working into the area
from the west, as troughing is located across both the eastern and
western U.S. A progressive pattern is expected, with the upper level
trough shifting east into our region by Wednesday night into
Thursday.

At the surface, high pressure is forecast to be centered across the
southeast U.S. on Tuesday, with it`s influence stretching into our
area. A dry warm front looks to lift northward through the day, as
low pressure develops across the central Great Plains. Southerly
winds will usher in warmer conditions (near to slightly above
normal) for Tuesday, lasting into Wednesday.

The aforementioned low pressure will pivot eastward into the Great
Lakes region, pushing a cold front through the region sometime on
Wednesday. With the lack of appreciable moisture return from the
Gulf, very little measurable rain is expected. Some models do spit
out a few hundreths of QPF, with the best chance of that appearing
to be in our eastern counties at this point. However, continued with
silent PoPs for now as models disgree on the timing on Wednesday.

Cooler below normal temperatures return on Thursday and Friday, but
not as pronouced as the early week cold spell.

Our next decent chance of rain waits until sometime next weekend
(yes possibly another wet weekend, unfortunately). As is typically
the case 7 days out, models disagree on the exact timing.


&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

Periodic restricted cigs in the MVFR range will continue to plague
terminals thru the pm hours. Redeveloping/more concentrated
rainfall will be in the east, primarily an impact for KEVV/KOWB,
where vsbys may also entertain restrictions in shower activity.
Don`t anticipate cigs improving a whole lot during this package,
but better conditions for that will be tmrw, when winds become
more westerly oriented and draw in some drier air. Until then,
gusty southerlies are the rule.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$



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