


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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319 FXUS63 KPAH 080444 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1144 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue with torrential downpours and lightning being the main concern. Isolated stronger storms today and Tuesday may also cause a brief downburst. - Heat indices on Friday may exceed 100 degrees again, but the duration will be short with improvements by Sunday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1137 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Updated aviation discussion for 06z TAFs. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 130 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 A series of 500 mb impulses embedded in broad troughing aloft will cause daily chances of showers and thunderstorms through the entire week. A broken line of storms have already developed along a cold front over southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and southwest Indiana that will sag south through this evening. Given 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE, sfc-3km lapse rates between 7.0-7.5 C/km, and a max theta-e difference around 25K, the main concern with stronger storms will be the potential for downburst along with torrential downpours and lightning. Due to the lack of shear and weak synoptic forcing, organized convection remains unlikely and will be driven by diurnal heating. As a warm front lifts back north on Tuesday, destabilization will be probable in the afternoon again as a slightly more amplified shortwave trough ejects across the FA. The overall parameters remain similar to today to support a brief isolated stronger storm as the winds aloft at the jet level are extremely weak. There are some signs the low-level deep moisture may back off a bit on Friday allowing for some relief; however, a vort max that digs across the northern Plains on Saturday will cause deep layer moisture from the southwest to return, bringing additional daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures through the week remain persistent in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Heat indices are progged to exceed 100 degrees again on Friday due to the drier conditions, but the duration will be short with improvements likely by Sunday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1137 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Low stratus has developed from KCGI across parts of southern IL late this evening. Guidance indicates this is likely to expand across more of our region overnight, with cigs dropping into the 200-500 ft range before scouring out by around 14z. Light winds are also present, so there is some concern that lingering low level moisture from rain today may contribute to areas of fog overnight, some of which may be locally dense. However, the stratus may tend to limit the spatial scope and overall density of the fog. Tomorrow will be similar to today with diurnal cu developing leading to heat of day showers and storms during the afternoon, some of which may linger into the evening. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ UPDATE...SP DISCUSSION...DW AVIATION...SP