Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 142314

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
614 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Issued at 607 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Northwesterly flow aloft will continue over the PAH forecast area
into early Fri, as a strong area of high pressure over the
southeastern CONUS moves eastward. By Thu night, clouds will be on
the increase as a west-east surface front/convergence boundary
sets up across our region. Despite the approach of a tight,
initially stacked low coming out of the central Plains, this
front/convergence boundary is progged to sink southward Thu
night/Fri, because of mid level shortwave energy coming around the
dominant vortex rotating into the Canadian maritimes. Meanwhile,
low level fetch will be out of the southwest, providing moisture
to lift over the frontal wedge in place, which will be maintained
by cool easterly winds. This Fri morning setup will provide the
best QPF of the short term (up to a quarter inch or so in six

Meanwhile, positive vorticity advection ahead of the aforementioned
low should destabilize the atmosphere enough for at least isolated
tstms Fri afternoon and evening, starting in the west and translating
eastward. There is a limited chance of severe weather occurring
in MO, close to the AR state line, due to robust bulk shear and
and 200+ m2/s2 helicity numbers in the models. Showers will wane
overnight as the mid level flow goes zonal.

Thu should be a relatively nice day, with temps mostly in the 60s,
mostly clear skies, although it will be a bit breezy across
western KY and part of southeastern MO.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Improving conditions should occur over the weekend as the
Friday/Friday night system moves off to the east and high pressure
both at the surface and aloft build east into the Ohio Valley.
Clouds may limit some warming, but higher than normal temps should
return as the upper ridge moves overhead as sfc winds eventually
become more southerly. Many locations will see 60s both Sat and
Sunday afternoons.

The next weather system to affect the region will come in the form
of a H50 trof and associated surface low the should move east-
southeast across the region early next week. Depending on the track
of the surface low, which could be very close to the OH River, there
may be a window of opportunity for MUCAPES to jump above 500 J/K, so
will introduce mention of a few possibly strong thunderstorms with
this package. Surface temps should remain mild Monday with the
passage of the system, but temps will cool to at or below normals as
cooler and drier air moves in Tuesday/Tuesday night.


Issued at 607 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Surface high pressure slowly migrates across the Gulf coast, and
its ridge extends northward and projects as the predominant
synoptic feature throughout the Mississippi and Tennessee river
valley over the next 24 hours. Omega like blocking pattern aloft
stacks overtop/to the west, and this combo allows some gradient to
develop swly warm advection winds overtop the surface ridge and
extend across the lower Ohio river valley. The primary impact
will be some wind at all times of the day/night, along with some
mid cloud increase, starting tonight but mainly increasing during
the daytime tmrw, when scattered to broken bases will become




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