441
FXUS63 KPAH 241138
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
638 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible
  today, mainly over southwest Indiana and west Kentucky. A few
  severe storms with a damaging wind threat cannot be ruled out.

- A stubborn upper low will keep chances of showers in the
  forecast Wednesday through next Monday. A few thunderstorms
  will also be possible, especially in the heat of the day.

- The remnants of a tropical system may merge with the upper low
  and bring a chance of heavy rainfall Thursday through at
  least Saturday. Breezy conditions will also be possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

A cold front will pass eastward across the region through early
afternoon. The latest HRRR is not very bullish on additional
convection developing ahead of it, but at least some scattered
storms will be possible over southwest Indiana and the Pennyrile
region of west Kentucky around midday. Shear will be fairly
healthy, so if there is any substantial sunshine ahead of the
front through midday, a few severe storms with mainly a damaging
wind threat will be possible. A small chance of showers will
continue behind the front this afternoon and tonight, as a
large upper low descends on the Quad State.

The upper low will meander about the region through the weekend
and should eventually push east of the Quad State by next
Tuesday. The presence of the cold core aloft will keep at least
small chances of showers and heat of the day thunderstorms in
the forecast each day through at least next Monday.

There remains some uncertainty with the location of the upper
low, as it interacts with the remnants of a tropical storm
Thursday through Saturday. The latest idea is for the tropical
system to lift north through Georgia and then eventually be
drawn westward into the upper low over the Quad State.

Copious mid and upper-level moisture will stream over the Quad
State Thursday through Saturday. However, there is some
potential that the low-level moisture could be trapped on the
east side of the Appalachians, which could limit the heavy
rainfall threat across the Quad State. Regardless, the current
WPC QPF from Wednesday night through next Monday is generally
3-4" throughout the region. Given the recent rains across the
region, heavy rains of that magnitude could result in some
flooding issues across the region. Stay tuned!

Given the persistent upper low over the region, and lingering
low-level moisture, diurnal temperature ranges will be stunted
through the period. In general, high temperatures will be a few
degrees below normal, and low temperatures will be a few degrees
above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 638 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

IFR or lower ceilings will gradually become VFR through the
morning at KCGI, KPAH, and KMVN. KEVV and KOWB may see MVFR
ceilings in the next hour or two. These, too, will lift to VFR
levels by late morning. It appears that convection will be quite
isolated and generally confined to west Kentucky today. It
should remain south and east of KOWB and KPAH. West southwest
winds may gust 15-20kts at times this afternoon at KEVV and
KOWB. Guidance strongly suggests that there will be more IFR or
lower ceilings or fog late tonight. However, there should be
a lot of 850mb-700mb moisture through the night, so kept the
forecast VFR tonight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS