Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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307 FXUS64 KTSA 270527 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1227 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 908 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Previous updates were to cancel portions of the tornado watch, and at this time the forecast area remains convective watch free. Also, had adjusted PoPs to best fit short term trends, but have removed PoPs from the eastern zones for the remainder of the overnight period. Current overnight low temps look good as this time, so an additional update is not planned at this time. Previous ZFP/PFM/AFM update issued at 735 pm. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Sunday) Issued at 210 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Sfc high pressure builds into the region on Monday with a welcome tranquil weather day. Flow aloft transitions more northwesterly through the Southern Plains by Tuesday favoring multiple thunderstorm complex to spread southeastward through Thursday. The initial storms may focus more west of the local region, however with time storm chances increase primarily late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Flow aloft again turns westerly to southwesterly Thursday into next weekend. Multiple passing wave within this pattern will support daily thunderstorm chances. A risk of severe weather along with locally heavy rainfall totals will also develop from late week into next weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Patchy fog will be possible overnight at NW AR TAF sites and at KBVO. Low level winds should provide enough mixing to keep fog from becoming dense, but will continue to monitor short term trends. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected with light north winds becoming more northeasterly during the day as weak high pressure builds over the region. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 88 62 84 62 / 0 0 20 40 FSM 90 64 86 64 / 0 0 10 30 MLC 91 64 82 63 / 0 10 30 50 BVO 87 59 82 58 / 0 0 10 30 FYV 85 60 83 59 / 0 0 10 20 BYV 84 60 84 58 / 0 0 10 20 MKO 87 62 83 63 / 0 0 20 40 MIO 84 60 81 58 / 0 0 10 20 F10 87 62 83 63 / 0 10 20 50 HHW 90 65 83 64 / 0 10 30 50 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...12