476
FXUS63 KLMK 241033
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
633 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Dense Fog Advisory in effect until 10AM.

*   Stormy pattern with risks of strong to severe storms and
    localized flooding issues will continue into Monday.

*   The greatest threat for severe weather will likely come Sunday
    afternoon into Sunday night ahead of a cold front. Severe storms
    will be capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and
    tornadoes.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 340 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

Now Through Mid-Morning...

The last of the rain has exited the Bluegrass and skies have
cleared. Weak ridging aloft has allowed for skies to remain clear
and winds light. Due to clear skies, light winds, and recent precip,
low stratus and fog has developed over central Kentucky. This fog is
slowly spreading north and south. An SPS was issued earlier for
patchy dense fog over these regions. With the current satellite and
observation trends, a Dense Fog Advisory is now being issued over
these same areas. With sunrise, fog will begin to thin.

Mid-Morning Through Evening...

Once fog clears out of the region, skies will remain mostly clear
with scattered diurnal Cu development in the afternoon. Today`s
temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than Thursday in the low-
mid 80s. In the late afternoon, a 35-40kt LLJ will move into the
region from the SW bringing additional moisture advection and will
raise dew points into the mid-upper 60s. Scattered showers and
storms will likely develop and move NE over the region. These storms
will be similar to the previous days, unorganized multicells capable
of heavy downpours, gusty to damaging winds and up to 1 inch hail.

Given multiple days of rain, localized flash flooding is possible.

Friday Night into Saturday Morning...

A stacked low pressure system currently over the northern Plains
will move northeast into southern Canada and the associated cold
front will propagate into the region. This front will likely stall
along the Ohio River. A line of showers and storms will outpace the
best forcing along the front and weaken as it approaches the region.
This weakening line is expected to move through in the early morning
hours. Given weak forcing and a stable airmass overnight, these
storms may only produce small hail and heavy rain. Due to these
reasons, SPC has trimmed the slight out of the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 340 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

Saturday is a somewhat tricky forecast as we`ll have a slowing or
stalling cold front in a modestly unstable and weakly sheared
environment. With the lack of shear and a fairly modest deep
moisture supply, expect scattered but disorganized showers and
storms, mainly during the heat of the afternoon.  Coverage will be
the lightest over southern Indiana, where we`ll just carry a 20 POP,
ranging to near 50 percent near the I-75 corridor in KY.

After a dry Sat night, we`ll have a warm front lifting through the
region Sunday morning with a healthy low-level jet to pump PWATs
back up toward 1.7 inches by late in the day. Strong shear will
develop through the day with a 45 kt southwesterly LLJ at 850mb and
westerly H5 winds around 55 kt.

Multiple rounds of storms are possible Sunday into Sunday night, but
the most widespread activity will likely arrive late Sunday
afternoon into Sunday evening as a cold front pushes in from the
west. While there are some factors that could hamper the
impactfulness of this event (i.e., destabilization between waves of
showers/storms, strength of capping inversion, etc), the overall
synoptic environment is one that would support organized convection
capable of damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes. If everything
comes together just right, this could be a potentially significant
event.

Scattered shower and storm chances will persist on Memorial Day as
we remain under cyclonic flow aloft. Expect this activity to be non-
severe as instability will be lacking, and less of a flash flood
threat given the loss of deep moisture. Drier and slightly cooler NW
flow regime will follow during the middle portion of next week.
Can`t rule out a stray shower or storm in that pattern but chances
will be limited to 20% or less.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 632 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

Low stratus remains over most terminals this morning. This will
begin to lift and thin over the next few hours.

Steady SSW winds will start by mid-morning and CIGs will improve to
mostly SCT around 4-5kft.

Another round of TSRA is forecasted to arrive over BWG in the late
afternoon and move SE into the evening. PROB30s were noted in this
TAF issuance. Further TAF issuance will be able to narrow this
timeframe down and introduce TEMPO groups.

Yet another line of showers and storms will approach the region in
the overnight hours. This line will surge out ahead of the best
forcing to sustain storms, therefore allowing the line to weaken. It
is uncertain how far this line will move into the region, as well as
the coverage and timing. Due to these reasons, there is no mention
in the TAFs at this time.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning for
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-071-074>078-081-082.
IN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning for
     INZ084-089>092.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRM
LONG TERM...RAS
AVIATION...SRM