849
FXUS63 KLMK 071454
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1054 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Scattered thunderstorms could produce locally gusty winds and
  brief torrential rainfall this afternoon and evening.

* Warm and humid all week, with scattered showers and thunderstorms
  expected each day. Organized severe weather is not expected.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1054 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Mostly sunny conditions this morning across the central and eastern
KY, but a bit more cloud cover is noted over IN and western KY where
a "cold" front is located. Temps have warmed into the mid-80s
already, and with muggy dewpoints across the region in the lower
70s. As the front approaches the forecast area, expect diurnal
storms this afternoon. With high PWATs in place, heavy rain and wet
microbursts are the main hazard for today. SPC has introduced a
Marginal risk for severe wind gusts, though our confidence in any
storms producing severe winds remains low. Our environment will
feature high CAPE, but low shear and slow storm motions. Overall,
the forecast remains in good shape, with only some minor trimming to
PoPs at this hour based on GOES and radar observations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 327 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

A weak low pressure system is centered over southern Ontario, with a
trailing cold front cutting through Southeast Lower MI, central IL,
and west into KS. A pool of PW near 2 inches is noted along the
boundary through northwest OH, IN, IL, and MO. Light SW low-level
flow continues to gradually advect moisture into the region. The
humidity has returned, with sfc dewpoints now in the low 70s across
the forecast area.

Today, the weak cold front to the northwest will slowly sink into
southern portions of IL/IN. The plume of deep moisture associated
with the boundary will spill into southern IN and central KY this
afternoon and evening. The approaching sfc boundary, as well as weak
mid-level shortwave energy, will provide sufficient lift for
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Moderate to strong
destabilization of the humid airmass will allow for a few strong
updrafts, though weak shear will limit organization. Pulse storm
hazards will be in play, including brief torrential downpours,
locally gusty winds, and lightning.

In general, highs today will likely be at least a couple of degrees
lower across the board. However, afternoon storms and cloud cover
introduce a bit more uncertainty into the temperature forecast.
Expect highs to range from the mid 80s to around 90. Showers and
storms will diminish in coverage after sunset, with isolated
activity possible overnight. Lows Tuesday morning will be in the
upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 327 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Weak upper level troughing lingers over the region Tuesday through
Friday, downstream of strong upper ridging over the Southwest. With
no significant frontal passages, a very warm, humid airmass will
remain in place. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely each
day, with activity blossoming in coverage during the afternoon and
evening hours. Convection develops in a weakly forced, unstable
environment with weak shear. Deep layer shear may briefly increase
to 25 kts or so on Wednesday with a mid-level wave moving over the
region, which could support loosely organized multicells. However,
for the most part, thunderstorms will be diurnally-driven and
unorganized. The main concerns will be localized strong wind gusts,
heavy rainfall, and lightning.

This weekend, upper level ridging amplifies across the southern
CONUS. We should see rising heights aloft from the south. However, a
stronger Canadian low pressure system then drags a cold front toward
the region, keeping relatively high rain chances in the forecast.

Temperatures this week will run near or slightly above normal. Highs
in the mid 80s to around 90 will be common, with lows in the upper
60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 653 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

VFR conditions expected this morning to begin the period with mostly
clear skies initially. However, low and high level clouds will
increase this afternoon as deeper moisture overspreads the region
ahead of a weak cold front. Scattered PM SHRA/TSRA expected in a
moist, unstable environment south of the weak boundary. Any heavier
or storm could produce brief IFR vsby and gusty winds. Due to spotty
nature of convection today, decided to stick with the PROB30 mention
during the most favorable hours.

Winds will weaken quite a bit after sunset tonight as the boundary
stalls near southern IN. Fog and low clouds will be possible across
southern IN and northern KY early Tuesday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJP
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...EBW