666
FXUS63 KLMK 120134
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
934 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Beautiful Sunday. Plenty of sunshine, cool in the morning and
    warm in the afternoon.

*   Active pattern next week with almost daily chances of showers
    and storms Monday through Friday. Best chance for a dry day will
    be Wednesday afternoon and Thursday. Severe weather is not
    expected through at least Thursday. Strong storm chances may
    increase slightly by Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 934 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

Quiet conditions are present across central KY and southern IN this
evening as high pressure works its way from the Ozarks eastward into
the Tennessee Valley tonight. Winds have quickly calmed over the
past hour to 90 minutes thanks in part to the approaching high but
mainly due to the onset of the nocturnal PBL inversion. Cool and
calm conditions are expected through the overnight hours, with lows
expected to range from the mid 40s to the low 50s tomorrow morning.
The forecast is on track at this time, with only minor adjustments
made to T/Td/wind/sky grids in the near term.

For those trying to catch a glimpse of the northern lights tonight,
weather conditions will be nearly ideal. There are two areas of
scattered clouds, one over central IN and another over western KY
and TN which could cause temporary obscuration later tonight;
however, most of the night should feature clear skies across the
region. Also, it is worth noting that moonlight will dampen the
appearance of the aurora, and that the moon will set around midnight
EDT/11 pm CDT tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 233 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

A sfc cold front is pushing into eastern KY this afternoon, with
some agitated cu noted along the I-75 corridor south of Richmond.
Cannot rule out a very brief shower or two from roughly Berea south
into the Lake Cumberland region this afternoon, but most will stay
dry. Skies are mostly sunny, except for the SCT-BKN clouds along the
front. Those clouds will also thin out by late afternoon. Expect
breezy northwesterly winds through sunset with temperatures topping
out in the low to mid 70s.

The forecast for tonight and Mother`s Day looks very pleasant. Upper
level shortwave ridging builds overhead as sfc high pressure drifts
east across the South. Expect mainly clear skies and light winds
with Sunday morning lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Temperatures
are forecast to warm into the 75-80 degree range Sunday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 233 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

Sunday Night through Wednesday Night...

Mid-level ridge axis will pass through the region Sunday night keep
the area dry though clouds will increase through the night.
Overnight lows will be in the low-mid 50s.  For Monday through
Wednesday, an upper level trough axis will push eastward from the
Plains and will likely close off as it pushes through the Ohio
Valley.  As the low closes off, the forward speed of the trough axis
will slow, which will allow Gulf moisture to infiltrate the region.
Area averaged model soundings show between 1.25 and 1.5 inch PWATs
across the region for Monday and Tuesday.  Soundings for Monday do
not contain or indicate much instability or shear.  Though, Tuesday
may have a little more instability to work with.  The convective
character looks to be rain showers with some scattered storms being
possible. The main weather hazard here would be locally heavy
rainfall given the high PWAT values.  Depending on instability, some
gusty winds could occur with the showers/storms on Tuesday. Activity
should decrease from west to east late Tuesday and into early
Wednesday with somewhat drier conditions for our local area by
Wednesday afternoon.

Highs Monday look to warm into the mid-upper 70s across our
northeast sections.  Clouds look to keep temps down across our
southwest areas with lower 70s for highs.  Highs on Tuesday will be
in the lower-mid 70s with overnight lows around 60.  Depending on
partial clearing for Wednesday afternoon, highs look to top out in
the mid 70s, but those could be underdone if clouds break up
quicker.  Lows Wednesday night will be in the lower 50s in the
valleys with mid-upper 50s on the ridges.

Thursday through Saturday...

We should continue to see a brief drier period continuing from
Wednesday night into the day on Thursday as mid-level ridging will
be in the area.  Our next weather maker looks to arrive late
Thursday night and into Friday as a system ejects out of the Plains.
Depending on the timing of the weather feature for Friday, there may
be a little more shear/instability to work with here for at least a
risk of strong storms.  However, the signal here is not clear on
that, but there is strong agreement with at least high PoPs for
Friday and into Friday night with drier weather returning for
Saturday.

Highs on during the period will be in the upper 70s to the very low
80s with overnight lows in the upper 50s to the lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 726 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

VFR conditions are expected during the current forecast period. W/NW
winds and gusts should calm over the next 1-2 hours thanks to the
typical nighttime near-sfc inversion as well as an area of high
pressure which is approaching the region. This high pressure will
move just south of the region on Sunday, allowing for light westerly
winds and mostly clear skies. There may be just enough moisture
present for the development of FEW-SCT daytime cu, but cloud
coverage and bases should not cause operational impacts.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CSG
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...CSG