Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 230645

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
245 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018

.Short Term...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 243 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018

A weak cold front will continue to sink south through the region
tonight. As it does so, an isolated shower or two may pop up in the
eastern Bluegrass region over the next hour or two, but most areas
will stay dry. Winds will be light and variable to calm through the
rest of the night. Plenty of low level moisture remains in place and
with the light winds, some fog is expected to develop. This fog
could become locally dense in places, particularly over south
central KY. Will be monitoring area observations and webcams
to see how dense the fog becomes.

For the remainder of today, surface high pressure will build in from
the north. Skies will start out partly to mostly cloudy, but will be
clearing out through the day. Mostly clear skies are expected from
early evening through the night tonight. Highs today will top out in
the low to mid 80s with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s tonight.


.Long Term...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 216 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018

...Muggy Memorial Day Weekend...

High pressure over Lake Erie at the start of the period will slide
southeast off the mid-Atlantic coast Friday morning, joining surface
ridging sprawled across much of the North Atlantic centered along
30N. This will give us a break from the showers and thunderstorms,
with dry weather expected Thursday and Thursday night.

Low pressure will cross the Gulf of Mexico from south to north over
the weekend and move into the southeastern United States early next
week. The flow between the Gulf low and the aforementioned Atlantic
ridge will funnel deep moisture northward into the southeast U.S.,
about as far north as the Ohio River.

Precipitable water values will be modest on Friday but will then
increase over the weekend, with the GFS and ECMWF both showing PWATs
flirting with 2" Sunday afternoon through Monday. Wet bulb zero
heights will increase over the weekend and warm cloud depths will be
on the order of 13-14 thousand feet. K Index is progged in the lower
and middle 30s, and surface dew points around 70 are expected over
the weekend and into Monday. Thunderstorm activity is expected each
day with a diurnal emphasis. In addition to lightning, locally heavy
downpours will be the main threat.

Though afternoon air temperatures will mostly be in the 80s, heat
index readings will peak around 90 each afternoon Saturday through
Tuesday, especially west of Interstate 65. Winds will be light,
offering little relief from the mugginess.


.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1255 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018

The storms have ended for the night and dry weather is expected at
all sites through this TAF period. The concern through the rest of
the night will be the potential for fog. LEX and BWG will be most
likely to see fog development tonight with the visibility likely
dropping the most at BWG. After the fog mixed out in the morning,
skies will be mostly clear to partly cloud tomorrow. Winds will be
out of the northeast at 5-7 knots through the day.




Short Term...EER
Long Term...13
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