Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 122349

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
749 PM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 310 PM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018

The first in a series of upper level shortwaves in the broad upper
level trough over the region is generating some very light precip
over southern Indiana/northern KY this afternoon.  Expect to see
some flurries or sprinkles or a light rain or snow shower at best
from these radar echoes.  Very light showers or flurries/sprinkles
are expected to continue through the overnight hours in low clouds.
No additional snow accumulations are expected. Lows tonight should
reach the mid to upper 20s.

For Tuesday, expect a mostly cloudy day with very low chances for
light precip in the form of sprinkles or flurries.  A better
shortwave does look to drop into the region Tues evening and may
provide enough lift for isld-sct light rain/snow showers.  A light
snow accumulation may be possible over southern Indiana/north
central KY Tues night in the better snow showers.  Right now
accumulations look to be less than a half inch.  In addition, breezy
northwest winds look to continue Tuesday. Tuesday`s highs look to
range from the upper 30s to lower 40s with lows Tues night in the

.Long Term...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018

Wednesday - Thursday...

The forecast looks dry for Wed/Thu as sfc high pressure takes
control of the region.  We`ll see a warming trend as well from 40s
for highs Wed to 50s/low 60s for highs on Thu.

Friday - Monday...

Forecast confidence is low as we head toward the end of the week and
into next week.  Long range models vary greatly on at least a few
weather systems crossing the Plains and heading into the Midwest
through early next week. It will certainly be a very active period
of weather but timing each feature and associated precip is
difficult this far out.

Most of the precipitation should be in the form of rain.
Friday/Saturday mornings temp profiles may be cold enough to support
some light snow but again forecast confidence is low.

On and off rain chances will continue through the beginning of next
week with some thunderstorms possible by Sun/Mon.  Temps will
generally remain on the mild side for Sun-Mon with highs in the


.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 745 PM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018

Band of MVFR stratus is working south through central Kentucky this
evening, but skies are scattering/lifting to VFR quickly across
southern IN and along the river. BWG will be the site most impacted
over the next 1-2 hours with lower ceilings. Radar continues to show
very light returns, and scattered flurries are expected at SDF/LEX
until 06z. If the stratus can scatter out during the second half of
the night, we`ll likely see fog develop, particularly at LEX. Latest
hi-res guidance is hitting areas just SW of LEX fairly hard with fog
tonight, so decided to include the tempo IFR line. Not out of the
question the other sites could see some shallow ground fog also.

On Tuesday, a BKN deck around 5 kft should be common most of the
day. Northwest winds will increase to 10-15 kts, with gusts to 20-25
kts after 14z. Toward the very end of the TAF period, the chance for
scattered light snow showers increases at SDF and especially LEX. A
sharp mid-level trough drops south through the area, and moisture
depth increases to the point where a dusting of snow looks quite
possible from KIMS down through KLEX. Most likely time frame for
aviation impacts due to snow showers is 00-06z Wednesday.




Short Term...AMS
Long Term...AMS
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