241
FXUS63 KEAX 230902
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
402 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few lingering showers expected to stick around today east of
  I-35

- Cooler temperatures expected this week

- Rain chances increase for the second half of this week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

An ongoing line of showers has developed on the remnants of a
surface cold front that has dipped into southern MO. As a result,
expect low temperatures to be a little cooler than they have been
(in the 50s). Moist mid-level SW flow will continue to override the
surface front in southern Missouri, allowing showers to continue up
into portions of central and northern Missouri. Expect mainly light
and scattered showers east of I-35.

A shortwave trough moving through the area combined with the influx
of moisture in the mid to upper levels, seen on current satellite
imagery, will set the stage for increased cloud coverage through the
day for most of the CWA. This, combined with the effects of the
recent cold front, will result in cooler high temperatures today
with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s. An occasional scattered shower
is possible through the day mainly for the eastern portions of our
CWA.

Tomorrow, another mid-level trough dips southeast from the Dakotas
and moves through the area resulting in another cloudy day with the
potential for some light showers across the area through the
afternoon. High temperatures may be a few degrees warmer as the cold
air advection weakens with winds shifting to the west. High
temperatures are expected to remain in the mid to upper 70s across
the region.

For the second half of the week, ridging builds into the area from
the west clearing out some of the moisture giving us a short break
from the rainy conditions. By Thursday, a tropical system approaches
from the Gulf through the GA/AL border. This will bring another
influx of moisture that will result in an increase in cloud coverage
and additional rounds of scattered showers across the CWA through
the weekend. The tropical system is anticipated to linger for a few
days before being pushed off to the northeast by another trough by
the start of next week. Expect temperatures to stay close to
seasonal averages with cloud coverage helping to decrease volatility.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

MVFR ceilings remain over most of the TAF sites, with the exception
of STJ, which is west of the main shield of low cloud coverage.
Showers are occurring south of all the terminals, so no mention
within this iteration of TAFs. Forecast soundings hint at the
potential for persisting MVFR conditions this morning, so went with
a low scattered cloud deck with broken to overcast cloud bases above
to indicate this possibility. Winds are forecast to be generally
light through the period, out of the north at around 5-10 knots.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Hayes