509
FXUS63 KPAH 211712
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1212 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily heat and humidity with Heat Indices in the upper 90s to
  lower 100s will peak Tuesday around 105 degrees.

- Best rain chances will accompany the approach and passage of
  cold fronts Sunday and Wednesday. The Wednesday fropa will
  bring an end to the daily oppression of heat/humidity as
  slightly cooler and drier air arrives for the week`s end.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

High pressure at the surface and aloft strengthens its grip
overtop the PAH FA today as a 596DM H5 High centers over the TN
Valley. Resultant columnar subsidence should win out over the
diurnal flare of instability with highs in the low-mid 90s and
dew points in the upper 60s to around 70F creating peak HI`s
generally 95-100 degrees.

The surface and upper ridge axes shift south and east heading
into the weekend. A low pressure system will race across the
Great Lakes and punch a cold front thru the Mid and Upper Ohio
Valley Sunday. Its approach introduces pops here as early as late
Saturday night, and its passage during peak heating/instability
Sunday afternoon-evening will help pops rise into the mid
chance category, even on its trailing edge. As a result of this
synoptic timing, temps are a little higher Saturday in the mid
90s, with lower half 90s slated for Sunday`s more clouds/pops.
But dew points in the upper 60s to near 70 Saturday pool in the
lower 70s Sunday, so effective peak HI`s range from the upper
90s to lower 100s both weekend days.

After fropa, high pressure reasserts its grip for the beginning
of the new work week, with high temperatures responding by
rising into the mid-upper 90s. With dew points still around or
in the 70s, HI`s threaten Advisory headlines around 105 degrees by
Tuesday.

Another cold front`s approach and passage Wednesday will help
pops spike before bringing an end to the sustained daily
heat/humidity by week`s end.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

SCT cu field with bases around 5-6kft today will dissipate
this evening and then develop again by late morning on
Saturday. Can`t rule out some patchy ground fog again late
tonight, mainly at the fog prone terminals (KMVN/KCGI). Guidance
isn`t hinting at it as much as the past couple of nights, but
given the calm winds think its still possible. Winds will be
light and variable today, calm tonight, and then SW around 6-10
kts by late Saturday morning.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight CDT /1 AM EDT/ tonight for
     INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...SP