738
FXUS62 KTAE 261737
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
137 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1143 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Overall the forecast is on track, though the thunderstorm
development in the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend has started a
little earlier than previously expected, so have made some
adjustment to the PoP grids to account for this. Model guidance
and the local KTAE sounding support the potential for increased
wet microburst activity today, so any sufficiently tall storms
will have the potential to produce strong gusty winds, with a few
storms reaching severe limits.

Aside from the thunderstorm activity, areas that avoid storm
development will be experiencing dangerous heat. Based on current
observations, have updated the forecast to show higher MaxTs in
South Georgia/Alabama along with slightly higher dewpoints. This
requires an expansion northward of the heat advisory on the
morning update.

Lastly, rip current risk remains a significant concern across the
Bay and Gulf County beaches where a rip current statement is in
place.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 319 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Ridging finally starts to break down a bit today with some troughing
over the eastern US. A shortwave will approach the western parts of
our area late this afternoon into the evening with another shortwave
early Thursday morning. Scattered showers and storms will once again
develop this afternoon into the early evening. There may be a few
more showers and storms today compared to the last few days with
PWATs around 2 inches and a little extra forcing. There will be some
mid-level dry air still present, though not as much as yesterday.
However, DCAPE will still be in the 1000-1300 J/kg range, which is
still enough for some strong downbursts. Late in the afternoon,
there will be a slight uptick in deep layer shear over our AL and FL
Panhandle counties, which could slightly boost intensity in these
storms late in the afternoon. Rain chances will be highest in
southeast Alabama and the Florida counties, but lower across
southwest Georgia. This is where some drier air remains in place.
We`ll have a lull in storms during the late evening, but as the next
shortwave approaches, we`ll still have sufficient instability to see
isolated showers and storms over the Central Time Zone counties.

Temperatures are a little trickier. With NBM under-doing highs
yesterday (even after nudging upward), have gone above guidance
again today, particularly in areas that will mix out more
efficiently. This is mainly over the AL/GA counties where highs may
reach the triple digits again. The FL counties will be in the middle
to upper 90s with heat index values up to 110. Thus, have issued
another Heat Advisory today for most of our FL counties and Brooks,
Lowndes, and Lanier Counties in GA. This is a bit uncertain as we`ll
have to see when thunderstorms develop if they affect daytime
heating. But, leaned forward on this given we`re now several days
into this heat wave and nighttime temperatures haven`t cooled
efficiently, which could be leading to compounding heat impacts,
especially for vulnerable populations. Lows tonight will only fall
into the middle to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM & LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 319 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Troughing is expected across the area Thursday into Friday,
allowing for higher coverage of daily showers and thunderstorms
across the area. High temperatures will also be a few degrees
cooler as a result, ranging from the low to mid 90s both days.
Heat indices will still range from near 103-109 degrees each
afternoon thanks to ample moisture overhead, and heat advisories
might be needed.

Ridging will build back overhead for the weekend and into early
next week, causing high temperatures to soar back into the mid to
upper 90s or near 100 once again. Heat indices are forecast in the
107 to 115 degree range in the afternoons over the weekend, and
heat advisories seem likely. While showers and storms will still
be possible each day, overall coverage should be less due to the
ridging overhead. On Monday, a weak front approaches the region
from the north before stalling out. This feature may cause a
slight uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity Monday afternoon
and Monday night.

Low temperatures will remain fairly steady in the mid to upper 70s
each night which will limit any real cooling off or respite from
the afternoon heat. Each day the heat wave goes on, the more
dangerous the cumulative effects of the heat become. Please take
care of yourselves and take heat safety seriously.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 133 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

TSRA ongoing near TLH terminal at TAF issuance but conditions are
gradually improving though an additional MVFR restriction is
possible through the remainder of the afternoon. TSRA may reach
VLD after 19-20z as outflow approaches from the SW with MVFR
conditions possible. Otherwise, no storms are expected to affect
the other terminals through the afternoon. Overnight is expected
to largely be VFR with the exception of TLH and VLD which should
experience a period of MVFR vsbys prior to sunrise on Thursday.
After 13z all sites are expected to be VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

West to southwest winds generally less than 15 knots are expected
through the period. Seas will generally be between 1 to 3 feet, with
the 3 foot waves being favored west of Apalachicola. Nightly
chances of showers and storms will be possible over the waters
with the highest chances east of Apalachicola.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

West to southwest transport winds around 10-15 mph will continue
over the next several days. This combined with very high mixing
heights will lead to good to excellent dispersions each afternoon.
Daily afternoon scattered thunderstorms will remain possible each
day, bringing a threat of gusty, erratic winds and frequent
lightning. Min RH values will fall into the 30s across the Georgia
and Alabama zones with 40s and 50s in the FL zones today, increasing
Thursday and Friday. Dangerous heat continues as well with highs
well into the 90s and heat index values of 105-110.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 356 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms could lead to
localized flooding concerns where slow moving storms could produce
several inches of rainfall over small areas. However, a widespread
heavy rainfall is not expected. Otherwise, there are currently no
river flooding concerns.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   77  92  75  93 /  20  60  30  60
Panama City   79  89  78  89 /  30  50  40  40
Dothan        75  92  74  92 /  30  60  30  50
Albany        76  94  74  94 /  20  50  30  50
Valdosta      76  95  74  95 /  20  50  30  50
Cross City    77  92  76  93 /  20  50  30  50
Apalachicola  80  88  79  88 /  30  60  40  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening for
     FLZ007>019-026>029-108-112-114-115-118-127.

     High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for FLZ112-114.

GA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ142>148-155>161.

AL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ065>069.

GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Young
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM....Merrifield
AVIATION...Godsey
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...DVD