Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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415 FXUS64 KTSA 181729 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1229 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1045 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Main update to the grids was to raise wind speeds/gusts across NE OK with some area sites reporting gusts to near 40 mph this morning. Guidance indicates that winds/gusts should trend lower as the day wears on. This, combined with borderline and spotty nature of advisory level gusts argues against headline issuance. Increased cloud cover using CONSShort as current obs are considerably higher than NBM (blended guidance) values. Nudged forecast MaxT down slightly with the higher cloud cover forecast as well. Text products have been sent. NBM PoPs looked reasonable, with some low values in the east closer to the terrain. Lacy && .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 141 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Yet another seasonably hot and humid day is on tap across eastern Oklahoma and northwest and west central Arkansas today, although much like yesterday, continued breezy conditions should take the edge off the heat to some degree. Low clouds currently expanding across southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas should persist into mid morning before diminishing toward midday. Deeper moisture in southeast Oklahoma and into western Arkansas could support another day with isolated thunderstorm development, with the best chance being during the afternoon hours. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Monday) Issued at 141 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 For overall messaging purposes, the expectations for the rest of the week, the weekend and into early next week remain the same, with a relative minimum in afternoon temperatures mid week, increasing temperatures for the weekend and low thunderstorm chances late in the weekend and into the beginning of next week. Some uncertainty continues regarding how much of an impact the tropical system in the western Gulf of Mexico will have on the forecast area - mainly in the form of increased cloud cover and associated temperature reduction. There is a good chance that spots in southeast Oklahoma stay in the 80s on Wednesday due to this. Toward the weekend, upper level high pressure looks to build into the region, bringing above normal temperatures to the region. Triple digit heat index values look probable, with some potential for at least one day featuring heat indices supportive of heat headlines. The more likely time period for headlines would be late in the weekend and into early next week, as moisture increases in association with a weakness in the upper level high that should also lead to the low thunderstorm chances. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 VFR conditions will prevail thru the period. MVFR cigs earlier this morning have lifted to VFR, and should gradually scatter out toward 00Z and later. Chances for showers and storms too low to mention in the TAFs. Tonight, some mid cloud is expected across NE OK, with increasing high cloud across the southeast. Toward midday on Wednesday, expect an increase in cu, with sct to bkn coverage at 3 to 5kft. Chances for a shower or storm, if any, would hold off until aft the scope of this forecast. Lacy && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 90 74 91 72 / 0 0 10 0 FSM 90 73 90 73 / 20 10 10 0 MLC 88 72 89 69 / 0 0 10 0 BVO 90 72 90 67 / 0 10 10 0 FYV 87 70 88 67 / 20 10 10 0 BYV 87 68 88 67 / 20 10 10 0 MKO 89 72 88 70 / 0 0 10 0 MIO 89 71 90 69 / 0 10 10 0 F10 88 71 88 69 / 0 0 10 10 HHW 87 71 86 72 / 10 0 10 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM....22 AVIATION...30