851
FXUS64 KFWD 191801
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
101 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Friday Afternoon/

A strengthening upper level ridge will continue to influence our
weather conditions through tomorrow afternoon. As for today,
expect highs in the mid to upper 90s with overnight lows in the
mid to upper 70s. A few locations may hit the century mark this
afternoon, but those readings will remain few and far between.
Heat indices will likely reach into the low 100s for several
locations today as well. Otherwise, expect generally sunny skies
and southerly winds around 5 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph.

Unseasonably hot and dry conditions will continue through
tomorrow afternoon, with a few more locations reaching the triple
digit threshold. A Heat Advisory is unlikely to be needed, however
folks should still exercise caution if they are outside during
peak heating through the next couple of days. As for rain chances,
North and Central Texas will remain dry through the period.

Reeves

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 427 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024/
/Friday Night through Next Thursday/

The long-term period features another hot and dry day on Saturday
before a change in the weather pattern brings rain chances and
cooler weather late Sunday into early next week. A strong upper
level ridge will remain in control through Saturday keeping the
high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s and heat indices in the
95-103 range. Breezy conditions can also be expected as the next
storm system approaches from the west.

A shortwave trough currently near the California coast will make
its way through the Four Corners region and into the Great Plains
on Sunday. The associated surface front should travel from the
TX/OK Panhandle towards our area during the late afternoon or
early evening hours. The latest suite of guidance continues to
show the best potential for widespread showers/storms will stay
well north of our area, but a few locations west of I-35 could see
a few showers and storms late Sunday afternoon and/or evening as
the front enters our region. An unsettled pattern will remain in
place through at least mid-week as a second disturbance moves
across the Plains Tuesday-Wednesday. The combination of abundant
moisture and large scale ascent should give us another opportunity
to see at least isolated to scattered showers/storms during this
period. In addition to the rain chances, we will enjoy some cooler
temperatures from Monday onward with daytime highs mainly in the
80s and lows in the 60s with the exception of a few Central Texas
zones where highs could reach the lower 90s on some days. During
this period, winds will generally be from the north around 5-10
mph.

Sanchez

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18z TAFs/

Concerns...None at this time.

VFR conditions will prevail across all TAF sites through the
period. Generally sunny skies will dominate the region outside of
some fair weather afternoon cumulus. Winds will remain out of the
south, generally less than 10 knots. Occasionally higher gusts
will be possible through the afternoon and early evening hours.

Reeves

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    98  78  99  77  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                98  77 100  73  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               95  73  97  73  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              98  75  99  74  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            98  75  99  74  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              99  78  99  77  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             97  75  98  73  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           98  76  99  74  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              98  75  98  72  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       98  73  99  72  96 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$