008
FXUS63 KMPX 092014
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
314 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread showers and thunderstorms Tuesday.

- Trending warmer through next week, with slight thunderstorm
  chances through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Pleasant seasonable weather continues Monday, but our next
chance for rain comes Tuesday morning as a cold front moves
through the area. The forcing aloft & surface low with this
system will be to our north along the Canadian border, but a
widespread band of showers & a few thunderstorms is expected as
it moves through Minnesota & Wisconsin during the morning.
Thunderstorm activity is expected to be isolated at best since
the front will be moving through during the morning, but a few
rumbles of thunder are still likely. Precipitation amounts will
generally be decreasing from south to north as one gets farther
from the forcing, amounts of 0.25-0.5 still look likely across
northern & central Minnesota with amounts tapering down closer
to 0.10 across southern Minnesota. A few CAMs show isolated
thunderstorms redeveloping later in the afternoon behind the
morning band of rain, this will depend on the timing of the
front through the area & whether the atmosphere can destabilize
again before peak heating is over.

Models continue to trend away from ridging over the southwest
building into the region later this week, as a strengthening jet
stream along the US/Canadian border surprises the ridging to the
central Plains. As a result, temperatures continue to trend
cooler this week, although it will still be more summer-like
with highs in the 80s & muggier dew points. The upper air
pattern looks to become active again with the lower heights
aloft, as a number of impulses develop within the faster flow
aloft. Models remain inconsistent with the track & timing of
these waves, but Wednesday afternoon into Thursday & next
Saturday-Sunday look to be periods with the best precipitation
potential this coming week. Seasonally strong wind shear with
the jet over the region & warmer temperatures/dew points mean a
chance for weather will accompany any organized precipitation
chances, likely in the form of classic summertime mesoscale
convective complexes. Precipitation amongst are hard to pin down
owing to the spread in models, but its safe to say rainfall
amounts over 1 are possible with any thunderstorm complexes we
see, with locally heavier rain potentially exacerbating ongoing
flooding concerns. Temperature-wise, NBM guidance suggests we
reach the mid 80s midweek, with slightly cooler temperatures
over the weekend when precipitation chances look to be highest.
Longer-range guidance shows the ridging over the southwest
attempting to make another push into the area by early next
week, which could result in temperatures near 90, but well have
to wait & see on that.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

VFR expected the entire period, though a cumulus field near 5000
feet will slowly move from northwest WI southward through the
evening hours. Sky coverage should increase towards our eastern
terminals (RNH, EAU, MSP). North-northwesterly winds sustained
15-20 knots through the early evening hours before decreasing
after sunset. Strongest winds are expected to be across south-
central MN where sustained values will be around 20 knots with
gusts of 25-30 knots. Winds will greatly reduce tonight to near
calm with a general northerly direction. Winds will gradually
turn more northeasterly Monday morning between 3-5 knots.

KMSP... No Additional Concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...Mainly VFR. Chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind SW 10G20 kts.
WED...Mainly VFR. Chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind SW 10 kts.
THU...Mainly VFR. Chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind W 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...BPH