820
FXUS64 KAMA 300450
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1150 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

- Thunderstorms may produce heavy rain again on Saturday. Severe
  storms are not anticipated at this time.

- Rain chances fall off Sunday through Wednesday with chances
  returning late Wednesday evening into Thursday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Another round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible this
evening, this time with an emphasis on the southern Texas Panhandle.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible throughout the
combined Panhandles this afternoon. Going into the evening, CAMs are
suggesting a line of storms may potentially impact the southern
TX Panhandle, along and south of the I-40 corridor. This may be
due to some extra help from residual outflow boundaries adding
some surface convergence this evening. PWATs are progged to remain
between 100 and 140% of normal. Therefore, plenty of moisture
will be available and subtle perturbations are expected in quasi-
zonal to northwesterly flow aloft. The question is will there be
any severe storms. Some models suggest some adequate CAPE for
marginally severe storms to be possible. However, the shower and
thunderstorm activity last night may inhibit some of the potential
instability and severe storms are not anticipated at this time.

Sunday should be mostly dry with afternoon temperatures remaining
a bit below normal in the lower 80s instead of upper 80s. Can`t
rule out some shower/thunder activity creeping in to the far
western Texas Panhandle tomorrow evening. PWATs are expected to
decrease below normal with drier H7 air moving into the area. Expecting
some humid air hanging on Sunday at the surface, with dewpoints
in the 60s for at least the eastern two thirds of the combined
Panhandles.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Mild temperatures expected to continue in the long term with high
pressure expected to remain well to the west. Precipitation chances
are scarce until about Wed night when some 20 to 40 PoPs get
reintroduced into the combined Panhandles. At this time a stout mid
to upper level low pressure system is expected to dig back down into
the Great Lakes Region and Upper to Mid Mississippi River Valley,
reinforcing northerly to northwester flow aloft for the combined
Panhandles.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Showers and thunderstorms are moving east away from the
terminals. Despite this, some low clouds are lingering around
from the increase moisture due to storms that dumped quite a bit
of rain on KDHT and KAMA. MVFR to IFR CIGs may be possible for
for these two terminals now through 14Z. Otherwise expecting
mainly VFR conditions with chances for more thunder late in the
TAF period, mainly after 00Z Sunday.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch until 4 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ001>003-006>008-
     011>013-016>018-317.

OK...Flood Watch until 4 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ001-002.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...36