420
AXNT20 KNHC 050546
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Oct 5 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Swell Event over the Western and Central Atlantic:

Large northerly swell generated by hurricane force winds associated
with previous Tropical Cyclones Imelda and Humberto in the northern
Atlantic continue to propagate south of 31N into the western and
central Atlantic. As indicated by recent altimeter data, this
swell event is still creating seas of 12 to 15 ft N of 22N and W
of 40W. Seas 8 ft or greater continue to cover a large area,
roughly N of 13N W of 30W and NE of the Bahamas. In addition,
this swell event will continue to sustain dangerous surf
conditions, significant beach erosion and probable local coastal
inundation along the east- facing shores of Georgia and Florida,
the north and east-facing shores of the Bahamas, and the north-
facing shores across Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin and
Leeward Islands. Refer to your local weather agencies for the
latest statements.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 24W from 17N
southward. It is moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Recent satellite-
derived wind data indicate that a broad area of low pressure,
associated with this tropical wave, has formed several hundred
miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and it
could become a tropical depression by the middle to latter part of
this week while moving across the central tropical Atlantic and
approaching portions of the Leeward Islands. Numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection is currently seen from 03N to 12N
between 22W and 31W. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives
this system a medium chance of tropical cyclone development within
the next 7 days.

Please read the latest TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 43W from 20N southward,
and moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
depicted from 07N to 11N between 42.5W and 47W.

Another tropical wave is east of the Lesser Antilles near 57W
from 20N southward, and moving west at 5 to 10 kt. A 1011 mb low
pressure is analyzed along the wave axis near 16N. Scattered
moderate convection is noted near the low.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 18N16W, then
curves southwestward to a 1012 mb low pressure located near
07N24W to 10N40W. The ITCZ continues westward from 12.5N46W to
15N52W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak area of low pressure located over the north-central Gulf is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms off the coasts of
Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. This system is expected to
move slowly northwestward during the next day or two, reaching the
coast of Texas by Monday. Development of this system is not
expected due to strong upper-level winds. A stationary front
extends from the low center across the eastern Gulf and the
Straits of Florida to another 1011 mb low pressure located over
the central Bahamas. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds and
seas of 6 to 10 ft are present north of the stationary front and
low. Moderate to fresh N winds and 3 to 5 ft seas exist offshore
Veracruz, Mexico. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and seas at 3
to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are noted over the Bay of Campeche and the Yucatan
Peninsula in association to an upper level trough.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas
are expected north of 27N through Sun morning as a tight pressure
gradient persists between high pressure to the N and a stationary
front extending from the Straits of Florida to 1009 mb low
pressure near 27.5N92W. The front and low will lift northward on
Sun, allowing for winds and seas to slowly diminish over the
northern basin. Looking ahead, high pressure will begin to build
modestly across the entire Gulf basin by late Mon leading to
moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas early next
week, with locally fresh winds possible in the northeastern Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure gradient dominates the Caribbean Sea supporting
moderate to locally fresh trades across the south-central
Caribbean, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Slight to
moderate seas are within these winds. Higher seas of 5 to 7 ft
in N swell are noted across the NE Atlantic passages, including
the Mona and Anegada Passages. An upper-level low is spinning
just south of Hispaniola, with an upper-level trough extending
to northern Colombia. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have
flared- up south of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. A mid level trough
is supporting scattered moderate convection over the western
Caribbean.

For the forecast, large N to NE swell will produce rough seas
over the waters E of the Lesser Antilles and through the Atlantic
Passages through Sun night before seas slowly subside early next
week. Elsewhere, moderate E to SE winds will pulse to locally
fresh in the northwestern Caribbean, including the Gulf of
Honduras, each night through the middle of next week. Looking
ahead, a broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical
wave has formed several hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde
Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system, and it could become a tropical
depression by the middle to latter part of next week while moving
across the central tropical Atlantic and approaching portions of
the Leeward Islands.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A swell event continues to propagate across the west and central
Atlantic. Please, see the Special Features section for more
information.

A stationary front enters the forecast area near 31N43W and
extends southwestward to a 1011 mb low at the central Bahamas.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are along the frontal
boundary, more concentrated near the central Bahamas. Fresh to
strong NE to E winds are N of the frontal boundary. Rough to very
rough seas, in northerly swell, follow the front. High pressure
dominates the western Atlantic in the wake of the front. Farther
east, an upper level trough is supporting scattered moderate
convection from 16N to 22N between 48W and 53W. Another upper
level trough is generating some shower activity north of 26N
between 21W and 25W. Gentle to moderate winds are observed over
the tropical Atlantic. Fresh to strong NE winds prevail between
the Canary Islands and offshore Western Sahara.

For the forecast west of 55W, the above mentioned swell event will
continue to produce rough seas across the Atlantic waters from
45W to coastal Florida and the Bahamas, generally north of 12N,
through Sun night. Seas in excess of 12 ft are expected north of
20N through Sun morning. Seas will slowly subside from north to
south over the central Atlantic early next week, with rough seas
persisting north of 24N and west of 60W through midweek. Fresh to
strong NE to E winds will prevail north of a stationary front,
extending from the central Atlantic near 25N55W through the
Florida Straits, through at least Tue before winds slowly diminish
midweek. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure associated
with a tropical wave has formed several hundred miles south of the
Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system, and it could become a
tropical depression by the middle to latter part of next week
while moving across the central tropical Atlantic and approaching
portions of the Leeward Islands.

$$
KRV