229
AXNT20 KNHC 281041
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Aug 28 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 04N to
15N with axis near 43W, moving west at around 15 kt. Numerous
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 11N
between 41W and 50W.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean extending southward from
19N to north-central Venezuela. Widely scattered moderate
convection is over the NE Caribbean N of 14N and E of the wave
axis.

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean southward from 19N with axis
near 85W, moving west at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong
convection and thunderstorms are occurring over the offshores of
Nicaragua, E Honduras, and Costa Rica.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W and extends
southwestward to 10N22W to 07N41W. Aside from the convection
related to the tropical wave in the central Atlantic, scattered
moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 13W and 33W,
and from 04N to 10N between 50W and 60W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The tail of a stationary front extends from SW Florida near 26N82W
to the central Gulf near 25N90W where it begins to dissipate.
Scattered showers associated with the front are ongoing over the
SE Gulf ahead of the front, including the Florida Straits. Similar
shower activity is occurring on the Bay of Campeche as a surface
trough moves across the bay area. Otherwise, a weak surface ridge
supports light to gentle variable winds and slight seas basin-
wide, likely locally higher near the frontal boundary and its
convection.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the basin the
remainder of the week into the weekend. Under this weather
pattern, mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the
basin, except for moderate to fresh NE to E winds over the
S-central and SW Gulf nightly as a diurnal trough develops over
the Yucatan Peninsula and moves westward at night. Slight to
locally moderate seas are forecast across the Gulf waters through
early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the TROPICAL WAVE section above for information
regarding two tropical waves moving across the basin.

The Atlantic subtropical ridge continues to support a trade-wind
pattern across much of the Caribbean Sea with moderate to fresh
winds over the central and SW waters, and locally strong winds in
the south-central basin. Seas over these waters are moderate to
rough. Moderate or weaker trades are elsewhere along with slight
to moderate seas. Otherwise, a tropical wave moving across la Mona
Passage is ushering scattered showers over the NE Caribbean. A
second wave moving across the Gulf of Honduras is generating heavy
showers over much of the Central America offshore waters.

For the forecast, the tropical wave with axis along 85W will
continue to generate scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms over much of the NW Caribbean through tonight. The
Atlantic subtropical ridge will support the continuation of
moderate to fresh easterly winds in the central Caribbean through
Mon night, with locally strong winds pulsing in the south-central
basin through Sun night. Moderate to rough seas are forecast with
these winds. The second tropical wave along 67W will move across
the central Caribbean today and tonight, and across the western
basin Fri. Trailing showers associated with the passage of this
wave will affect the NE and north-central Caribbean through
tonight.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A former stationary front has transitioned to a cold front that
extends from 31N70W to just N of Andros Island where it stalls to
West Palm Beach, Florida. Scattered showers are occurring ahead
and behind the front, including the Florida seaboard and the
northern Bahamas. A pair of surface troughs ahead of the front are
supporting similar convection across the offshore zones E of the
Bahamas. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge prevails across the
remainder subtropical Atlantic waters, supporting moderate or
weaker E to SE winds W of 35W. E of 35W, a tighter pressure
gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over NW Africa is
supporting moderate to fresh NE winds and rough seas to 10 ft,
including the Canary Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front is forecast to stall
today and then gradually lift north, then transition back to a
cold front by Fri morning and extend from Bermuda to 29N69W by Sat
morning before lifting N of the area Sat evening. The Atlantic
ridge will dominate the remainder of the forecast area producing a
gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow. Another weak front may move
into the NW waters during the weekend and into early next week.

$$
Ramos