249
FXUS63 KLMK 161931
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
231 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Very dry air this afternoon and 10-20 mph winds from the
  northwest.

* Chilly start Monday morning, with lows in the upper 20s and lower
  30s.

* Unsettled weather next week resulting in multiples waves of rain
  Tuesday through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

Very dry high pressure system building into the region today will be
centered over us tonight, with light and variable winds as well as
mostly clear skies. This combination should bring a chilly night,
with lows some 15-20 degrees lower than this morning`s readings.
Monday, we should start seeing increasing mid-level clouds filter
into the region, as the high shifts east and a warm front develops.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

Monday Night-Tuesday Night

Moisture will steadily increase as a low-level jet begins to develop
early Tuesday morning. Given the developing warm front mentioned
above, expect some good isentropic lift to bring widespread rain
chances. Tuesday morning an upper trough crossing the Midwest should
help to enhance lift in the mid and upper levels as well, so cannot
rule out some rumbles of thunder within those rains. The speed of
that shortwave will determine if rains can linger into the Tuesday
night time frame. For now, a majority of the guidance is showing
that we`ll have to keep in likely to categorical rain chances. This
makes sense with the surface frontal boundary lingering somewhere in
our vicinity.

Wednesday-Thursday

East/west-oriented, quasi-stationary boundary will stay in the
vicinity. Broad ridge over the Gulf Coast will be somewhat flat over
the Ohio Valley...so any additional shortwaves coming downstream of
a deep upper low over the SW US could spark additional showers and
storms in our region. Temperatures generally will be well above
normal, though our southern Indiana counties could a little cooler
numbers, depending on the exact location of that boundary.

Thursday Afternoon-Friday Night

That deep upper low, or at least a significant piece of it, will
move into the Central Plains Thursday night. There`s still
considerable spread on the details of this system affects our
region...both in timing and strength. What we know is that there
will be moisture in place across the region and that residual
boundary somewhere in the area to help force rains/storm chances. So
likely range PoP`s (60-70%) from NBM looks good, at least for rain
chances, until we can get more certainty in the timing of that low`s
movement. Previous NBM thunder chances were in the 20-30% range, but
this run backed off quite a bit...basically to "silent" 10% or less
pops.  Think this is because of the slightly slower timing in the
upper energy coming across as well as widespread cloud coverage in
this period. Would not be surprised to see this thrown back in at
some point, as focus becomes clearer on timing of features.

00Z ECMWF Ensembles and NAEFS show mean precipitable waters above
the 90th percentile for most if not all of this period...so we`ll
have to watch rainfall forecasts over the coming days to see if any
flood threats need to be advertised.

Saturday-Sunday

With the models showing a chance to split some of that SW US upper
level low energy into a couple of waves, we can`t rule out
additional rain chances over the weekend. 12Z GFS came in noticeably
slower for the upper low pushing through here. For now, we can go
with lower PoPs, to account for that uncertainty. Temperatures near
climo seem reasonable as well, for the same reason.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1208 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

VFR conditions expected to continue this period. Have some gusts to
around 15 kts at most terminals this hour. Those should start to
abate this afternoon...with winds becoming light and variable
tonight.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS