Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 251704

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
104 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 1120 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Areas on the northern and western parts of the CWA are seeing
sunshine through the clouds. Temperatures have been warmed in the
forecast to take this into account. Wind gusts were also pushed
higher because of a tighter surface gradient.

Issued at 620 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Just enough clearing in our western counties to allow fog
development, and based on obs from HNB it could be locally dense.
Not expecting enough coverage of dense fog to warrant an advisory,
but will update grids and likely issue an SPS to highlight fog
potential where skies are able to clear briefly.


.Short Term...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 255 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Low pressure becoming stacked again over the Carolinas, with light
NW flow in the Ohio Valley struggling to scour out a stratus deck.
Believe that clearing will be difficult to come by under fairly weak
flow through a deep layer of the atmosphere.

Under this stratus deck, the drizzle that was fairly extensive
earlier has mostly dissipated but still lingers over the eastern
half of central Kentucky. Expect this to taper off by daybreak, but
as we get enough diurnal warming through the shallow stratus layer,
look for renewed shower chances over east central Kentucky during
the day. Otherwise count on mostly cloudy skies and temps climbing
into the 60s.

Dry conditions expected tonight, but for Thursday another closed
upper low swings into the Tennessee Valley. Expect enough moisture
to push north to support precip chances. POPs will range from just a
slight chance along the Western Kentucky and Bluegrass Parkways to a
solid 50% near the Tennessee border, though the cutoff will likely
be sharper than that whereever it ends up. Instability not expected
to spread far enough north, so will not mention thunder.

.Long Term...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Initially low forecast confidence in a fairly progressive pattern
with waves swinging through an eastern CONUS trof. Will hang on to
slight rain chances on Friday with the last of these waves, but QPF
is quite light.

For the weekend and beyond we will be high and dry. Transitional
period Sat-Sun with NW flow aloft, keeping temps on the lower side
of climo. Once the sfc ridge slips to our east and heights increase
in earnest, we`ll finally be above normal early next week, with max
temps pushing 80 by Tuesday.


.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 102 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Satellite images and area cameras are starting to show some breaks
in the stratus this afternoon. In addition, cloud bases will
continue to rise. All sites should have VFR sky conditions by mid to
late afternoon. The lower clouds may break up for a period tonight,
but mid and high clouds will be streaming in. Winds will become
light and variable tonight. Some light fog with reduced visibilities
and lower cigs will be possible at LEX early tomorrow morning. This
should mix out by mid morning.




Short Term...RAS
Long Term...RAS
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